REFLEX: An Adapted Production Simulation Methodology for Flexible Capacity Planning

As intermittent energy resources become more significant in power production, traditional capacity planning may be insufficient to ensure reliable system operation. A system planner must ensure that flexibility solutions are available to respond to large and uncertain ramping events. These solutions may be operational, such as improved unit commitment and dispatch, curtailment of renewables, or demand response; procurement based, such as new fast ramping resources or batteries; or involve market reform. This paper outlines a new methodology for modeling the economic tradeoffs in implementing flexibility solutions for integrating renewables. The proposed model includes both a stochastic treatment of system states to account for a wide range of operating conditions and an adapted production simulation methodology that weighs the cost of reliability and subhourly flexibility violations against the cost of the operational flexibility solutions available to mitigate them. The model's functionality is demonstrated with a case study of California at a 50% RPS in 2030. The model tests the value of 1088 MW of generic flexible units, relative to the same capacity of must-run resources, finding an expected annual value of $347 +/- 42 million/yr. Potential applications of the model for resource planning and procurement are also discussed.