From Integrated to Integrative: Delivering on the Paris Agreement

In pursuit of the drastic transformations necessary for effectively responding to climate change, the Paris Agreement stresses the need to design and implement sustainable, robust, and socially acceptable policy pathways in a globally coordinated and cooperative manner. For decades, the scientific community has been carrying out quantitative modelling exercises in support of climate policy design, primarily by means of energy systems and integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Here, we describe in detail the context of a hitherto ineffective scientific contribution to policymaking, highlight the available means to formulate a new paradigm that overcomes existing and emerging challenges, and ultimately call for change. In particular, we argue that individual modelling exercises alone widen the gap between formal representation and real-life context in which decisions are taken, and investigate major criticisms to which formalised modelling frameworks are subject. We essentially highlight the importance of employing diverse modelling ensembles, placing the human factor at the core of all modelling processes, and enhancing the robustness of model-driven policy prescriptions through decision support systems. These altogether compose a truly integrative approach to supporting the design of effective climate policy and sustainable transitions and, therefore, strengthen the modelling-policymaking interface.