Article
Ecology
Seiji Ohshimo, Soyoka Muko, Mari Yoda, Hiroyuki Kurota
Summary: This study evaluated the habitat and abundance of Japanese Spanish mackerel in the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and Sea of Japan using a generalized additive model and generalized linear model on catch per unit effort (CPUE) data from Japanese purse-seine vessels. The results showed that Japanese Spanish mackerel prefer regions of low temperature at 10 m depth, with a high CPUE area observed in the Yellow and East China seas from 1994 to 1997. The CPUE values increased until 2000, with fluctuations thereafter and stability after 2010. It is the first stock assessment report based on the Japanese large and mid-sized purse seine fishery in the region, suggesting further collaboration with China and Korea for accurate stock assessment and management of the species.
REGIONAL STUDIES IN MARINE SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Mathematics
Chunli Huang, Xu Zhao, Weihu Cheng, Qingqing Ji, Qiao Duan, Yufei Han
Summary: Air pollution is a global problem that is closely related to economic and social development as well as ecological environment construction. This study proposes three new dynamic conditional generalized Pareto distribution (DCP) models with weather and air quality factors for fitting the time-dependence of air pollutant concentration. The results show that the proposed DCP model performs better in predicting PM 2.5 concentration compared to other models, and it is both stable and sensitive.
Article
Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary
Fabrizio Antolini, Samuele Cesarini, Francesco Giovanni Truglia
Summary: This research analyzes the spread of COVID-19 in Italy at the provincial level, investigating potential territorial clusters and the convergence of the virus among provinces. Using econometric models and factors such as population density and environmental variables, the study estimates the speed of convergence and its influence. The results highlight the impact of demographic and environmental factors on the spread of the virus, with varying speeds of convergence observed during the three waves of the pandemic.
SOCIAL INDICATORS RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Ying C. MacNab
Summary: Recent disease mapping literature presents adaptively parameterized spatiotemporal (ST) autoregressive (AR) or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models for Bayesian prediction of COVID-19 infection risks. The models aim to capture the complex dynamics and heterogeneities of infection risks. This paper synthesizes and generalizes these models, and introduces a general convolution construction to characterize risk dependencies and predict disease risks and occurrences. The models have a wide scope for modeling complex spatiotemporal data and can be used for estimation, learning, and forecasting purposes.
SPATIAL STATISTICS
(2023)
Article
Agronomy
Helen Hicks, James Lambert, Richard Pywell, Lucy Hulmes, Sarah Hulmes, Kevin Walker, Dylan Z. Childs, Robert P. Freckleton
Summary: This study analyzed the density and distribution of a major weed, Alopecurus myosuroides, on a large scale, finding significant impacts of soil and rainfall on densities. Statistical models provided good predictions of large-scale occupancy, and maps of current and potential densities were provided.
PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Fisheries
Muhaji A. Chande, Yunus D. Mgaya, Lusato B. Benno, Samwel M. Limbu
Summary: Environmental variables such as sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a, rainfall, and wind play a role in influencing the abundance and temporal distribution of Octopus cyanea. The study found that the additive effect of wind speed and chlorophyll-a with a 4-month lag was the best model for predicting the abundance and distribution of O. cyanea around Mafia Island. Temperature affects octopus growth, while strong winds facilitate the mixing of water, bringing nutrient-rich water to the surface for increased photosynthesis.
FISHERIES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Rui Ke, Jing Jia, Changchun Tan
Summary: This paper introduces a minimum distance estimator for the CARR(1,1) model, which is enhanced for robustness by replacing sample mean and autocorrelations with robust estimators. The performances of these robust MDEs are shown to outperform the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) in the presence of outliers, as demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulations and empirical application.
JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL COMPUTATION AND SIMULATION
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Guoqing Huang, Ruili Liu, Min Liu, Haitao Zheng
Summary: A method based on the multivariate AR-GARCH model is proposed to model and simulate the multivariate nonstationary wind speed process. The BEKK model is adopted to maintain the positive definiteness of the conditional covariance matrix, and numerical simulations as well as measured data are used to validate the accuracy of the proposed method.
JOURNAL OF WIND ENGINEERING AND INDUSTRIAL AERODYNAMICS
(2021)
Article
Materials Science, Multidisciplinary
Showkat Ahmad Lone, Tabassum Naz Sindhu, Fahd Jarad
Summary: This article presents an innovative model called Additive Trinomial Frechet (ATF) distribution that is suitable for modeling survival data with a non-monotonic hazard rate. The statistical characteristics of the ATF model, such as probability generating function, entropy measures, quantile function, order statistics, and maximum likelihood estimation, are thoroughly discussed. The effectiveness of the suggested model is demonstrated using real-life data and shows better performance compared to other significant counterparts.
RESULTS IN PHYSICS
(2022)
Article
Mathematics
Yiing Fei Tan, Kok Haur Ng, You Beng Koh, Shelton Peiris
Summary: This paper proposes a logarithmic version of the two-component ACD (LogCACD) model without restrictions on the sign of the model parameters, allowing the decomposition of expected durations into long- and short-run components to capture their dynamics. The proposed model is compared with benchmark models and different specifications of error distributions, and it shows superior performance in terms of in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasts.
Article
Engineering, Multidisciplinary
Yong Shi, Wei Dai, Wen Long, Bo Li
Summary: The study focuses on market liquidity by estimating probability density function, utilizing LSTM networks to extend ACD model and incorporating an attention mechanism to highlight important temporal positions for predicting next duration. Fixed hyperparameters are adopted to minimize manual parameter tuning impact, and experiments on large-scale dataset show the superiority of the proposed hybrid models.
MATHEMATICAL PROBLEMS IN ENGINEERING
(2021)
Review
Oceanography
Taketoshi Kodama, Seiji Ohshimo, Hiroshige Tanaka, Hiroshi Ashida, Takahiko Kameda, Toshiyuki Tanabe, Makoto Okazaki, Tsuneo Ono, Yosuke Tanaka
Summary: This study investigated the population dynamics and species-specific habitats of marine cladocerans in the Sea of Japan over two decades. The results showed higher abundance and diversity of marine cladocerans in the Sea of Japan compared to the East China Sea-Kuroshio during summer. Different optimal temperature ranges were found for the five common species in the Sea of Japan, suggesting potential differences in their habitats.
PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Chuanlong Cheng, Chuang Han, Qidi Fang, Ying Liu, Xiangyu Chi, Xiujun Li
Summary: The study aimed to investigate the associations between air pollutants and hospital admissions for COPD in China. The findings showed that short-term exposure to NO2 and SO2 was associated with increased risks of daily COPD admissions, especially for females and the elderly. Controlling SO2 and NO2 concentrations below national and WHO standards could prevent more COPD admissions and achieve greater health benefits.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Statistics & Probability
Jun Tao, Bing Li, Lingzhou Xue
Summary: We introduce a nonparametric graphical model for discrete node variables based on additive conditional independence, develop an estimator and establish its consistency, and uncover a deeper relation between additive conditional independence and conditional independence. The new method is evaluated through simulation experiments and analysis of a real dataset.
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
(2022)
Article
Economics
Astrid Loretta Ayala, Szabolcs Blazsek, Adrian Licht
Summary: In the literature on score-driven models, the optimal choice of scaling parameters for conditional score terms remains uncertain. This paper examines the quasi-autoregressive (QAR) plus Beta-t-EGARCH model using data on the S&P 500 and alternative scaling parameters. The best-performing scaling parameter for score-driven location is found to be the conditional inverse information matrix.
Review
Ecology
Carsten F. Dormann, Justin M. Calabrese, Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, Eleni Matechou, Volker Bahn, Kamil Barton, Colin M. Beale, Simone Ciuti, Jane Elith, Katharina Gerstner, Jerome Guelat, Petr Keil, Jose J. Lahoz-Monfort, Laura J. Pollock, Bjoern Reineking, David R. Roberts, Boris Schroeder, Wilfried Thuiller, David I. Warton, Brendan A. Wintle, Simon N. Wood, Rafael O. Wuest, Florian Hartig
ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS
(2018)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Felix Liechti, Jerome Guelat, Susanna Komenda-Zehnder
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
(2013)
Article
Ecology
J. Jaquiery, J. Guelat, T. Broquet, L. Berset-Brandli, E. Pellegrini, R. Moresi, A. H. Hirzel, N. Perrin
Article
Ecology
Jerome Guelat, Julie Jaquiery, Laura Berset-Braendli, Ester Pellegrini, Ruben Moresi, Thomas Broquet, Alexandre H. Hirzel, Nicolas Perrin
Article
Ornithology
Fraenzi Korner-Nievergelt, Annette Sauter, Philip W. Atkinson, Jerome Guelat, Wojciech Kania, Marc Kery, Ulrich Koeppen, Robert A. Robinson, Michael Schaub, Kasper Thorup, Henk van der Jeugd, Arie J. van Noordwijk
JOURNAL OF AVIAN BIOLOGY
(2010)
Article
Ecology
J. Andrew Royle, Marc Kery, Jerome Guelat
METHODS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
(2011)
Article
Ecology
Nicolas Strebel, Marc Kery, Jerome Guelat, Thomas Sattler
Summary: The aim of this study is to propose a more efficient use of disparate biodiversity data to assess species distributions and population trends. By developing an integrated species distribution model and utilizing joint likelihoods, we demonstrate how to combine different types of data to improve the accuracy and precision of abundance estimates. Our findings suggest that exploiting both citizen-science data and structured monitoring data can lead to more accurate estimates of distribution and population trends, particularly for rare species.
JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Tyler A. Hallman, Jerome Guelat, Sylvain Antoniazza, Marc Kery, Thomas Sattler
Summary: Global change in climate and land use has diverse effects on the geographic and elevational distribution of European birds. Some species show upslope shifts, while others show downslope shifts, and species traits are associated with different patterns of elevation change.
Article
Ecology
Mathieu Chevalier, Alejandra Zarzo-Arias, Jerome Guelat, Ruben G. Mateo, Antoine Guisan
Summary: Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are important for predicting climate change impact on species' distributions, but traditional models based on restricted datasets may lead to biased predictions. Integrating multiple datasets can improve accuracy in predicting species' distribution changes.
FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
(2022)