Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Vitor M. Marquioni, Marcus A. M. de Aguiar
Summary: The study developed an individual-based network model to analyze genetic evolution of viruses in epidemic spreading. Results suggest that lower community connectivity, such as between cities, increases the probability of reinfection.
Article
Engineering, Chemical
Jindong Dai, Chi Zhai, Jiali Ai, Jiaying Ma, Jingde Wang, Wei Sun
Summary: Mathematical modeling, particularly using cellular automaton, is powerful in studying the spread of infectious diseases. A model was proposed and validated using COVID-19 confirmation data from New York City and Iowa, showing different disease spread patterns in different cities. Simulation under different control strategies could provide valuable insights for decision makers in infection control measures in Iowa in the future.
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Jianbo Wang, Zhanwei Du, Hui-Jia Li, Lei Wang, Xiao-Ke Xu, Zhen Wang, Lin Wang, Xiang Li
Summary: This article reviews the recent progress of epidemic dynamics in metapopulation networks, covering concepts of epidemic models and metapopulation networks, theoretical characterization of epidemics spread in metapopulation networks, measures to curb epidemic spread, applications of inferring epidemic pathways based on epidemic data, and reconstruction of epidemic transmission by phylogeographic methods. It also presents future research outlooks on epidemic dynamics in metapopulation networks.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Dimitrios Tsiotas, Vassilis Tselios
Summary: This study uses network analysis to investigate the uneven spread of COVID-19 in the globally interconnected economy. The findings suggest that highly connected nodes in the global tourism network are infected earlier than other nodes, and countries with the same network centrality as China also have early infections. Additionally, network interconnectedness, economic openness, and transport integration are critical determinants in the early global spread of the pandemic, and the spatio-temporal patterns of COVID-19 spreading are more influenced by network interconnectivity than spatial proximity.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2022)
Article
Physics, Fluids & Plasmas
Kebo Zhang, Yuexing Han, Min Gou, Bing Wang
Summary: Reasonable resource allocation is crucial in controlling epidemics, and donating resources may not effectively suppress the outbreak. However, increasing the speed of resource production can reduce the final outbreak size.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Mohammad Bahram, Mikk Espenberg, Jaan Parn, Laura Lehtovirta-Morley, Sten Anslan, Kuno Kasak, Urmas Koljalg, Jaan Liira, Martin Maddison, Mari Moora, Ulo Niinemets, Maarja Opik, Meelis Partel, Kaido Soosaar, Martin Zobel, Falk Hildebrand, Leho Tedersoo, Ulo Mander
Summary: Wetland soils are the dominant source of N2O emissions, but the microbial players and processes involved are not well understood. This study found that the abundance of nitrifying archaea is a key factor explaining N2O emissions from wetland soils globally. Climate change and environmental changes may enhance the presence of these archaea and transform wetland soils into an even greater source of N2O.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
B. Krithika, P. Tamilalagan
Summary: Recently, there has been an increase in infectious diseases that can be transmitted among vaccinated individuals and lead to reinfections in those who were previously infected. These reinfections are often caused by viral mutations, which can result in different transmission modes and exposure periods. Therefore, it is important to include a dedicated compartment for reinfections in mathematical models in order to better understand disease transmission dynamics. This study presents an epidemic model that incorporates a specific compartment for individuals experiencing reinfection, as well as two time delay parameters to account for the incubation periods of initial infection and subsequent reinfection. The research reveals that in the absence of time delays, the system exhibits forward bifurcation with respect to the parameter beta(1). However, in the presence of time delays, Hopf bifurcation is identified when the delays exceed certain cut-off values. The study also highlights that a longer exposure period leads to an increase in the reinfected population and contributes to the persistence of the disease over a longer timeframe. The proposed model is applied to real-time vaccination data for COVID-19 in India to demonstrate its practical applicability. The theoretical results are validated through numerical simulation.
EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL-SPECIAL TOPICS
(2023)
Article
Computer Science, Information Systems
Yanyi Nie, Xiaoni Zhong, Tao Wu, Yanbing Liu, Tao Lin, Wei Wang
Summary: This paper presents a model of coevolution epidemics spread on a temporal higher-order social network, considering synergistic, competitive, and asymmetric interactions. The results show that the temporality of the network can both facilitate and inhibit the transmission dynamics of different interaction patterns. Additionally, the network temporality weakens the effect of initial infection density on outbreak thresholds.
JOURNAL OF KING SAUD UNIVERSITY-COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
T. D. Frank, J. Smucker
Summary: This article describes the relevant dynamics of COVID-19 waves from an amplitude space perspective. The amplitude dynamics of infected populations at different stages of epidemic waves are considered, and it is shown that the amplitudes of eigenvectors can be tracked through the stages of COVID-19 waves. The initial and final stages of an epidemic wave are primarily determined by the unstable eigenvector of the initial stage and its corresponding remnant vector.
EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL-SPECIAL TOPICS
(2022)
Review
Plant Sciences
Roger A. C. Jones
Summary: The global virus disease pandemics and epidemics are increasingly threatening staple food crops and their quality, exacerbated by the challenges in managing these diseases due to global warming. The historical and recent information provided in the review highlights the wide distribution and impact of these diseases on food security, calling for effective management strategies.
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Silvio L. T. de Souza, Antonio M. Batista, Ibere L. Caldas, Kelly C. Iarosz, Jose D. Szezech Jr
Summary: Mathematical models and computational simulations are essential tools during infectious disease outbreaks to characterize epidemic dynamics and design public health policies. The COVID-19 pandemic may face scenarios characterized by high spikes of infections due to easing restrictions, but these undesirable scenarios could be avoided by a control strategy of successive partial easing restrictions.
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS
(2021)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Surendra Hazarie, David Soriano-Panos, Alex Arenas, Jesus Gomez-Gardenes, Gourab Ghoshal
Summary: This study utilizes a data-driven approach and meta-population modeling to investigate the relationship between population density, mobility, and epidemic spreading in cities. The research finds that cities with high population density centers connected by human mobility flows are more vulnerable to epidemic risks. The authors propose realistic mitigation strategies to modify city mobility patterns based on this insight, aiming to minimize epidemic risk.
COMMUNICATIONS PHYSICS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Melodie Monod, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Xiaoyue Xi, Daniel Hebert, Sivan Bershan, Simon Tietze, Marc Baguelin, Valerie C. Bradley, Yu Chen, Helen Coupland, Sarah Filippi, Jonathan Ish-Horowicz, Martin McManus, Thomas Mellan, Axel Gandy, Michael Hutchinson, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Sabine L. van Elsland, Michaela A. C. Vollmer, Sebastian Weber, Harrison Zhu, Anne Bezancon, Neil M. Ferguson, Swapnil Mishra, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Oliver Ratmann
Summary: Research shows that in the United States, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the main source of COVID-19 transmission, playing a crucial role in the spread of the virus. Therefore, targeting interventions towards this age group is crucial in halting the resurgence of the epidemic and preventing COVID-19 deaths.
Article
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Andrea Mesiarova-Zemankova
Summary: This article studies the characterizing functions of n-uninorms with continuous underlying t-norms and t-conorms. These functions can divide the points of discontinuity of n-uninorms and have specific properties.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON FUZZY SYSTEMS
(2022)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Carlos I. Mendoza
Summary: This study successfully describes the spread dynamics of COVID-19 by considering the heterogeneous transmission arising from different reasons and using a time-dependent transmission rate. The model's validity is confirmed through real data validation, showing improved prediction accuracy over traditional models.
FRONTIERS IN PHYSICS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Haogao Gu, Ruopeng Xie, Dillon C. Adam, Joseph L-H Tsui, Daniel K. Chu, Lydia D. J. Chang, Sammi S. Y. Cheuk, Shreya Gurung, Pavithra Krishnan, Daisy Y. M. Ng, Gigi Y. Z. Liu, Carrie K. C. Wan, Samuel S. M. Cheng, Kimberly M. Edwards, Kathy S. M. Leung, Joseph T. Wu, Dominic N. C. Tsang, Gabriel M. Leung, Benjamin J. Cowling, Malik Peiris, Tommy T. Y. Lam, Vijaykrishna Dhanasekaran, Leo L. M. Poon
Summary: Hong Kong has successfully controlled the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through an elimination strategy and stringent measures. The majority of community-acquired cases were caused by three importations, and increased transmission occurred after prolonged restrictions, possibly due to adherence fatigue. Strong border control and community surveillance are essential for preventing local outbreaks.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Microbiology
Angkana T. Huang, Henrik Salje, Ana Coello Escoto, Nayeem Chowdhury, Christian Chavez, Bernardo Garcia-Carreras, Wiriya Rutvisuttinunt, Irina Maljkovic Berry, Gregory D. Gromowski, Lin Wang, Chonticha Klungthong, Butsaya Thaisomboonsuk, Ananda Nisalak, Luke M. Trimmer-Smith, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Damon W. Ellison, Anthony R. Jones, Stefan Fernandez, Stephen J. Thomas, Derek J. Smith, Richard Jarman, Stephen S. Whitehead, Derek A. T. Cummings, Leah C. Katzelnick
Summary: Neutralizing antibodies play a crucial role in protecting against dengue. However, the factors that contribute to variation in neutralization across different strains of dengue virus are not well understood. This study investigated the effects of changes in the protein sequence of all 10 dengue viral proteins on antigenic distances. The results showed that residue changes in the envelope protein and nonstructural protein 2A had significant effects on antigenic distances, suggesting that nonstructural proteins may modulate neutralizability. This study highlights the importance of considering antigenic determinants beyond the surface proteins in understanding antibody recognition of dengue viruses.
Article
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
Kathy Leung, Eric H. Y. Lau, Carlos K. H. Wong, Gabriel M. Leung, Joseph T. Wu
Summary: We tracked the effective reproduction number (R-t) of the Omicron BF.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Beijing from November to December 2022. After China's shift from the zero-COVID policy, R-t increased to 3.44, and the infection incidence peaked on December 11. The cumulative infection attack rate in Beijing was estimated to be 75.7% on December 22, 2022, and 92.3% on January 31, 2023.
Article
Virology
Zhanwei Du, Wei Luo, Rachel Sippy, Lin Wang
Correction
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Dongxuan Chen, Yiu-Chung Lau, Xiao-Ke Xu, Lin Wang, Zhanwei Du, Tim K. Tsang, Peng Wu, Eric H. Y. Lau, Jacco Wallinga, Benjamin J. Cowling, Sheikh Taslim Ali
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Health Care Sciences & Services
Ka Luen Thomas Lui, Sze Hang Kevin Liu, Kathy Leung, Joseph T. Wu, Ann G. Zauber, Wai Keung Leung
Summary: The widespread adoption of computer-aided detection (CADe) in detecting colorectal polyps would result in shorter surveillance intervals for patients, particularly according to the US Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer (USMSTF) guideline. Based on simulation, CADe application would lead to approximately 19.1% and 1.9% of patients requiring shorter surveillance intervals, as recommended by the USMSTF and European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) guidelines, respectively. Specifically, all or 2.7% of patients initially scheduled for 3-5 years of surveillance would have their intervals shortened to 3 years, according to the USMSTF guideline.
JOURNAL OF MEDICAL INTERNET RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Yuan Bai, Zengyang Shao, Xiao Zhang, Ruohan Chen, Lin Wang, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Tianmu Chen, Eric H. Y. Lau, Dong-Yan Jin, Zhanwei Du
Summary: China adjusted its zero-COVID strategy in late 2022, leading to an unprecedented Omicron wave. We conducted a study estimating the time-varying reproduction numbers of 32 provincial-level administrative divisions from December 2022 to January 2023. The pooled estimate revealed an initial reproduction number of 4.74 (95% confidence interval: 4.41, 5.07).
JOURNAL OF TRAVEL MEDICINE
(2023)
Article
Infectious Diseases
Kaiming Bi, Jose Luis Herrera-Diestra, Yuan Bai, Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Graham Gibson, Maureen Johnson-Leon, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers
Summary: We estimated the likelihood of undetected emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in 25 low and middle-income countries (LMICs) before December 5, 2021. In nine countries, the risk exceeds 50%; in Turkey, Pakistan, and the Philippines, it exceeds 99%. Risks are generally lower in the Americas compared to Europe or Asia.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Xiao-Ke Xu, Xiao Fan Liu, Lin Wang, Ye Wu, Xin Lu, Xianwen Wang, Sen Pei
Summary: The early spatial spread of COVID-19 in China during early 2020 was mainly driven by outbound travelers from Wuhan. Previous studies have focused on the influence of outbound population flows from Wuhan, but the role of different transportation modes and network structures in the spread of COVID-19 is not well understood. This study examines the impact of road, railway, and air transportation networks on the spread of COVID-19 in China. It finds that short-range spread within Hubei province was primarily influenced by railway transportation, while long-range spread to other provinces was influenced by multiple factors, including air transportation and larger outbreak size in hub cities.
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH
(2023)
Review
Health Care Sciences & Services
Aly Passanante, Ed Pertwee, Leesa Lin, Kristi Yoonsup Lee, Joseph T. Wu, Heidi J. Larson
Summary: The use of conversational artificial intelligence (AI) in vaccine communication has the potential to provide credible and personalized information to users, leading to positive effects on vaccine attitudes. However, more research is needed to understand the long-term and societal impacts of this technology, as well as address ethical concerns.
JOURNAL OF MEDICAL INTERNET RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Lingyue Yang, Zengmiao Wang, Lin Wang, Bram Vrancken, Ruixue Wang, Yuanlong Wei, Benjamin Rader, Chieh- Hsi Wu, Yuyang Chen, Peiyi Wu, Bingying Li, Qiushi Lin, Lu Dong, Yujun Cui, Mang Shi, John S. Brownstein, Nils Chr. Stenseth, Ruifu Yang, Huaiyu Tian
Summary: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants that can evade immune defenses is causing recurrent epidemic waves of COVID-19 globally. This study analyzed the impact of international travel, public health and social measures (PHSM), COVID-19 vaccine rollout, SARS-CoV-2 lineage diversity, and the case growth rate (GR) across 63 countries. The findings highlight the effectiveness of PHSM in mitigating epidemic waves and lineage diversity, even with the rollout of vaccines.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2023)
Article
Virology
Hao-Chen Sun, Sen Pei, Lin Wang, Yuan-Yuan Sun, Xiao-Ke Xu
Summary: The large population movement during the Spring Festival travel in China can greatly accelerate the spread of epidemics, especially after the relaxation of control measures against COVID-19. This study evaluates the impact of population migration during the Spring Festival holiday on epidemic spread in different scenarios. The findings suggest that Spring Festival travel can significantly increase the national peak magnitude of infection, with earlier peak timing in most cities. The study highlights the need to pay attention to outbreaks in large cities when people resume work after the holidays.
Article
Biochemical Research Methods
Zhizheng Wang, Xiao Fan Liu, Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Ye Wu, Petter Holme, Michael Lachmann, Hongfei Lin, Zhuoyue Wang, Yu Cao, Zoie S. Y. Wong, Xiao-Ke Xu, Yuanyuan Sun
Summary: This article presents a protocol for using CCIE, a COVID-19 Cases Information Extraction system based on the pre-trained language model. The protocol includes steps for preparing training data, executing Python scripts for entity recognition and text classification, and using machine evaluation and manual validation to validate the effectiveness of CCIE. For complete details, please refer to Wang et al.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Zhanwei Du, Xiao Zhang, Lin Wang, Sidan Yao, Yuan Bai, Qi Tan, Xiaoke Xu, Sen Pei, Jingyi Xiao, Tim K. Tsang, Qiuyan Liao, Eric H. Y. Lau, Peng Wu, Chao Gao, Benjamin J. Cowling
Summary: During extreme events like COVID-19 crisis, people tend to engage in collective online behaviors to express awareness, take action, and work through concerns. This study in Hong Kong SAR during the first two waves of COVID-19 provides a framework for evaluating the interactions among individuals' emotions, perceptions, and online behaviors. The study results show a strong correlation between online behaviors, such as Google searches, and the real-time reproduction numbers.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Sheikh Taslim Ali, Yiu Chung Lau, Songwei Shan, Sukhyun Ryu, Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Xiao-Ke Xu, Dongxuan Chen, Jiaming Xiong, Jungyeon Tae, Tim KTsang, Peng Wu, Eric H. Y. Lau, Benjamin J. Cowling
Summary: This study assessed the impact of COVID-19 PHSMs on influenza transmission and predicted future influenza epidemics. The results showed that COVID-19 PHSMs reduced influenza transmissibility by up to 40.6% and attack rate by up to 24.8% in the 2019-20 influenza season. The study also found a potential increase in infection burden in upcoming influenza seasons across the globe.
LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH
(2022)
