Assimilating observations to simulate marine layer stratocumulus for solar forecasting

Integration of solar energy forecasts into the electric network is becoming essential because of the continually increasing penetration level of solar energy. Three-dimensional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models predict the weather based on the current weather conditions (called initialization) and simulate the ensuing atmospheric processes. The accuracy of forecasts therefore depends, in part, on the accuracy of the model initializations. Data assimilation is recognized as the most widely used technique to improve the initialization into NWP models. In this study, meteorological observations from the surface and upper-air in-situ networks over the southern California coast are assimilated into the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using a three dimensional variational data assimilation technique (3DVAR). A single observation test was conducted to tune-up the length scale and variance scale along with the regional domain dependent background error statistics. A customized version of 3DVAR data assimilation was deployed with two sets of cyclic data assimilation with 6-h and 1-h assimilation windows along with the cold-start mode. The cyclic data assimilation experiments consistently outperformed the cold-start data assimilation and WRF for intra-day Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Clear Sky Index (CSI) forecast. Hourly cyclic assimilation showed the highest forecast skill score against ground measurements and satellite measurements. Even at the coastal stations with more challenging meteorological conditions, the hourly cyclic assimilation consistently outperformed the 24-h persistence forecast. The average (mean of four case studies) hourly cyclic data assimilation showed the highest forecast skill score in GHI and CSI intra-day forecast with reference to 24-h persistence forecast up to 39.4% and 40.7% respectively at the coastal stations. The spatial distributions of GHI biases estimated against SolarAnywhere satellite measurements showed that the hourly cyclic assimilation consistently improved the stratocumulus cloud coverage, thickness, and life time over the coastal region, but biases are still present further inland.