Mapping extended technological trajectories: integration of main path, derivative paths, and technology junctures

Technological trajectory is an attractive concept, but is hard to be operationalized. Challenging this issue, we suggest an extended technological trajectory method. It identifies not only the single main path, but derivative paths emanating from technology junctures on the main path. Convergence and divergence of technologies occur on junctures that are identified by using three indicators of technology generality, path-specific generality and path-specific novelty. Dynamic technology tree allows researchers to identify product component-patent linkages in a structured way, deepening our understanding about effects of technological developments on a product. In practice, our approach can help researchers better identify technologically related opportunities, thereby triggering the process from well-focused technology portfolio to technological advantages. High voltage direct current transmission technology is exemplified.