4.5 Article

Is predatory publishing a real threat? Evidence from a large database study

Journal

SCIENTOMETRICS
Volume 116, Issue 1, Pages 255-273

Publisher

SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11192-018-2750-6

Keywords

Predatory journals; Scholarly publishing; Open access; Lattes platform

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Using a database of potential, possible, or probable predatory scholarly open-access journals, the objective of this research is to study the penetration of predatory publications in the Brazilian academic system and the profile of authors in a cross-section empirical study. Based on a massive amount of publications from Brazilian researchers of all disciplines during the 2000-2015 period, we were able to analyze the extent of predatory publications using an econometric modeling. Descriptive statistics indicate that predatory publications represent a small overall proportion, but grew exponentially in the last 5 years. Departing from prior studies, our analysis shows that experienced researchers with a high number of non-indexed publications and PhD obtained locally are more likely to publish in predatory journals. Further analysis shows that once a journal regarded as predatory is listed in the local ranking system, the Qualis, it starts to receive more publications than non-predatory ones.

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