Journal
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
Volume 612, Issue -, Pages 1293-1299Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.017
Keywords
HFMD; Meteorological factors; Search engine query data; Combination; GAM; Monitoring
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41421001, 41531179]
- MOST [2014FY121100, 2016YFC1302504]
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Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been recognized as a significant public health threat and poses a tremendous challenge to disease control departments. To date, the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD has been documented, and public interest of disease has been proven to be trackable from the Internet. However, no study has explored the combination of these two factors in the monitoring of HFMD. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to develop an effective monitoring model of HFMD in Guangzhou, China by utilizing historical HFMD cases, Internet-based search engine query data and meteorological factors. To this end, a case study was conducted in Guangzhou, using a network-based generalized additive model (GAM) including all factors related to HFMD. Three other models were also constructed using some of the variables for comparison. The results suggested that the model showed the best estimating ability when considering all of the related factors. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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