Mapping land development through periods of economic bubble and bust in Massachusetts using Landsat time series data

This study examines the change from undeveloped to developed land-use during the real estate bubble (2000-2006) and subsequent bust (2006-2013) in Massachusetts, USA, using a time series of Landsat-5, 7, and 8 data. Loss in undeveloped land-use was measured using standardized change detection of Landsat green vegetation and albedo fractions. Between periods of bubble and bust, a significant difference occurred in the total area of undeveloped land-use loss (bubble, 35.9km(2); bust, 29.18km(2)), as well as mean loss-patch area (p<0.001), from 4848m(2) to 4079m(2) (16% decrease). The area of undeveloped land-use loss was 81% greater in forest than agricultural land-use during the bubble and only 51% greater, post-bubble. Undeveloped urban forest loss constituted 25% of all losses during the bubble, while during the bust it was 42%. These findings indicate that total area of undeveloped land-use loss changed due to the economic recession and that those losses reorient from forest and agricultural areas toward areas adjacent to existing development (i.e., urban forests).