Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
C. J. Batchelor, S. A. Marcott, I. J. Orland, F. He, R. L. Edwards
Summary: The connection between abrupt high-latitude warming during the last glacial period-Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events-and rapid climate changes at lower latitudes has revealed inter-hemispheric teleconnections in the ocean-atmosphere system. We examined a speleothem in Wisconsin that grew from 70-50 thousand years ago and found large negative oxygen isotope (δO-18) excursions that correlate with DO events recorded in the ice core of the North Greenland Ice Core Project. Climate simulations suggest that abrupt DO warming would increase the δO-18 of annual precipitation in the study area, supporting the observed negative δO-18 excursions.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Zhen Lv, Jun-Chao Yang, Xiaopei Lin, Yu Zhang
Summary: This study suggests that the North Atlantic forcing plays a more significant role than the tropical Pacific forcing in the decadal prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific. By removing the North Atlantic forcing, the prediction skill of NP SST decreases, indicating its strong contribution to the long-term prediction. The research emphasizes the need for improving the simulation of the Atlantic trans-basin effect for better predicting NP climate.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yu Nie, Hong-Li Ren, Yang Zhang, Pengfei Zhang
Summary: This study investigates the role of atmospheric variability and Arctic sea ice in the variation of warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) and cold Arctic-warm Eurasia (CAWE) patterns on a subseasonal timescale. The results suggest that the dominance of WACE over CAWE is mainly due to stronger roles of atmospheric variability in driving the WACE pattern and Arctic sea ice in maintaining the WACE anomalies.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Richard Seager, Mingfang Ting, Patrick Alexander, Haibo Liu, Jennifer Nakamura, Cuihua Li, Matthew Newman
Summary: The US Southwest is currently experiencing a severe drought crisis due to climate change, reduced precipitation, and changes in sea surface temperatures. The future wetness or dryness of the region will depend on the decadal variability of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans as well as radiatively-forced changes.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Zhicong Yin, Botao Zhou, Huopo Chen, Yuyan Li
Summary: Severe haze pollution in North China has been a major issue since winter 2012, with climate variability playing a significant role in the interannual-decadal variations in the number of haze days. Previous studies explored the impact of various climate drivers on HDNC separately, but lacked assessment of joint effects. This study reviews the impacts of climate drivers on HDNC, reveals synergetic effects, and identifies future research directions for subseasonal variations in HDNC and seasonal prediction of haze using numerical climate models.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Meilin Zhu, Lonnie G. Thompson, Huabiao Zhao, Tandong Yao, Wei Yang, Shengqiang Jin
Summary: Glacier changes on the Tibetan Plateau have been spatially heterogeneous in recent decades. This study focused on western Tibet and used an energy-mass balance model to explore the effects of local climate and large-scale atmospheric circulation on glacier mass changes. Results showed that interannual mass balance variability was primarily driven by ablation-season precipitation, with snow accumulation and melt processes strongly influenced. The study also found that changes in precipitation and air temperature during the ablation season on interdecadal time scales were associated with mass changes in glaciers in western Tibet.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Valerio Lucarini, Vera Melinda Galfi, Jacopo Riboldi, Gabriele Messori
Summary: Understanding the statistical properties of extreme weather events and their underlying physical processes is crucial for evaluating climate variability, climate change, and associated hazards. Recent studies have shown that large deviation theory (LDT) is useful for investigating persistent extreme events and estimating long return periods. In this study, we utilize LDT and a state-of-the-art Earth system model to analyze the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave. We find that the occurrence of the heatwave can be attributed to climate variability, but its probability is greatly amplified by ongoing climate change. We also examine the spatial coherence and the role of the Rocky Mountains in influencing extreme events in the Western Pacific region of North America.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Nick Dunstone, Julia Lockwood, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Katja Reinhardt, Eirini E. Tsartsali, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Alessio Bellucci, Anca Brookshaw, Louis-Philippe Caron, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Barbara Fruh, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Silvio Gualdi, Leon Hermanson, Stefano Materia, Andria Nicodemou, Dario Nicoli, Klaus Pankatz, Andreas Paxian, Adam Scaife, Doug Smith, Hazel E. Thornton
Summary: This study highlights the potential of decadal climate services and describes the development of four prototype climate service products in collaboration with users from agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and insurance sectors. However, to provide better services, more data and wider expertise are needed.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Nick Dunstone, Julia Lockwood, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Katja Reinhardt, Eirini E. Tsartsali, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Alessio Bellucci, Anca Brookshaw, Louis-Philippe Caron, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Barbara Fruh, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Silvio Gualdi, Leon Hermanson, Stefano Materia, Andria Nicodemou, Dario Nicoli, Klaus Pankatz, Andreas Paxian, Adam Scaife, Doug Smith, Hazel E. Thornton
Summary: This study highlights the potential of decadal climate services through four case studies and emphasizes the need for more user-centered products to meet the demands of various industries in adapting to climate change.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Richard Seager, Mingfang Ting, Patrick Alexander, Jennifer Nakamura, Haibo Liu, Cuihua Li, Isla R. Simpson
Summary: This study examines the onset and development of the drought in the southwestern United States from summer 2020 to spring 2021 using reanalyses and climate models. The severity of the drought in summer 2021 was a result of four consecutive seasons of record-low or extremely dry precipitation in the southwest. The onset of the drought was driven by a combination of internal atmospheric variability and interannual climate variability, and the worsening conditions were guided by the development of a La Nina in the tropical Pacific Ocean. There is also evidence of human-driven climate change contributing to the drying conditions in the southern part of the region in spring.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Doug M. Smith, Simon F. B. Tett
Summary: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a significant impact on wintertime climate over the North Atlantic and surrounding regions. Observations show that the NAO displays larger multi-decadal variability compared to most climate models. To understand the role of NAO as a driver of multi-decadal climate variability, simulations were conducted using a data-assimilation technique. The results reveal that NAO variability leads to substantial multi-decadal trends in temperature, precipitation, and sea-ice concentration, particularly in the Atlantic subpolar gyre region.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jan D. Keller, Sabrina Wahl
Summary: Atmospheric reanalysis datasets are critical for assessing past climate variability, with newer global and regional reanalysis systems showing significant differences in performance, particularly in terms of precipitation representation. Regional reanalyses provide added value, especially in terms of precipitation, compared to global reanalyses.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Qinxue Gu, Melissa Gervais
Summary: Decadal climate prediction can provide valuable information for decision-making, and this study explores using self-organizing maps (SOMs) to identify decadal climate variability and conduct predictions. The study found that the North Atlantic has higher predictability at longer lead times than the North Pacific in terms of sea surface temperature patterns.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Shaohua Chen, Haikun Zhao, Philp J. Klotzbach, Graciela B. Raga, Jian Cao, Chao Wang
Summary: This study reveals distinct decadal regimes in the impact of transbasin variability (TBV) on tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) over the Western North Pacific, Central-Eastern North Pacific, and North Atlantic basins. Changes in the interannual relationship between TBV and TCF are observed over different time periods, likely influenced by large-scale parameters. The interactions between ENSO and the Pacific decadal oscillation are believed to play a role in these observed decadal changes.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Anran Zhuge, Benkui Tan
Summary: The ZNPO pattern is a newly identified teleconnection pattern that oscillates mass in the troposphere between the eastern and western North Pacific, affecting severe weather and hydroclimate events in North Pacific and North America during winter. It is primarily driven by baroclinic energy conversion and feedback forcing by transient eddies, acting as a major source of kinetic energy to maintain the pattern.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Oceanography
Alvaro Linares, Chin H. Wu, Eric J. Anderson, Philip Y. Chu
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2018)
Article
Environmental Sciences
J. Val Klump, John Bratton, Kevin Fermanich, Patrick Forsythe, Hallett J. Harris, Robert W. Howe, Jerry L. Kaster
JOURNAL OF GREAT LAKES RESEARCH
(2018)
Article
Limnology
Xinyu Ye, Eric J. Anderson, Philip Y. Chu, Chenfu Huang, Pengfei Xue
LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY
(2019)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xinyu Ye, Philip Y. Chu, Eric J. Anderson, Chenfu Huang, Gregory A. Lang, Pengfei Xue
JOURNAL OF GREAT LAKES RESEARCH
(2020)
Article
Oceanography
A. Fujisaki-Manome, E. J. Anderson, J. A. Kessler, P. Y. Chu, J. Wang, A. D. Gronewold
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2020)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ting-Yi Yang, James Kessler, Lacey Mason, Philip Y. Chu, Jia Wang
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, Greg E. Mann, Eric J. Anderson, Philip Y. Chu, Lindsay E. Fitzpatrick, Stanley G. Benjamin, Eric P. James, Tatiana G. Smirnova, Curtis R. Alexander, David M. Wright
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
(2020)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Michael Angove, Lewis Kozlosky, Philip Chu, Greg Dusek, Greg Mann, Eric Anderson, James Gridley, Diego Arcas, Vasily Titov, Marie Eble, Kimberly McMahon, Brian Hirsch, Walt Zaleski
Summary: Meteotsunamis caused by transient weather disturbances have had a significant impact on the United States, leading to loss of life and property. Despite historical mischaracterizations and ignorance, recent advances in sensing and understanding have allowed for rudimentary alerting capabilities in the Great Lakes and East Coast. Challenges and gaps remain in achieving a comprehensive meteotsunami forecast and warning capability in the U.S., with collaboration among various NOAA offices seen as essential.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Haoguo Hu, Andre J. van der Westhuysen, Philip Chu, Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome
Summary: This study utilized machine learning methods to predict wave height and period in Lake Erie, with the XGBoost model performing the best and LSTM model following. Compared to the WW3 model, ML methods showed advantages in performance and computational cost.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Alan D. Steinman, Donald G. Uzarski, David P. Lusch, Carol Miller, Patrick Doran, Tom Zimnicki, Philip Chu, Jon Allan, Jeremiah Asher, John Bratton, Don Carpenter, Dave Dempsey, Chad Drummond, John Esch, Anne Garwood, Anna Harrison, Lawrence D. Lemke, Jim Nicholas, Wendy Ogilvie, Brendan O'Leary, Paul Sachs, Paul Seelbach, Teresa Seidel, Amanda Suchy, John Yellich
Summary: Groundwater is a critical but often overlooked natural resource. In the Laurentian Great Lakes region, where surface water is abundant, groundwater resources have received limited attention. To address this issue, a virtual groundwater summit was held in 2021 to identify challenges and develop solutions.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, David M. Wright, Greg E. Mann, Eric J. Anderson, Philip Chu, Christiane Jablonowski, Stanley G. Benjamin
Summary: Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snowstorms is essential for safety and preparedness due to their societal impacts. Advancements in numerical forecast models and observational networks have improved forecasting capability, but challenges remain in obtaining observations over water surfaces. Combining accurate weather prediction models and observations has helped forecasters make better lake-/sea-effect snow forecasts.
WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-WATER
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Theo Baracchini, Philip Y. Chu, Jonas Sukys, Gian Lieberherr, Stefan Wunderle, Alfred Wuest, Damien Bouffard
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2020)
Article
Engineering, Marine
Eric J. Anderson, Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, James Kessler, Gregory A. Lang, Philip Y. Chu, John G. W. Kelley, Yi Chen, Jia Wang
JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
(2018)