Article
Environmental Sciences
Jennifer Kennedy, George C. Hurtt, Xin-Zhong Liang, Louise Chini, Lei Ma
Summary: Climate change is impacting global crop productivity and agricultural land suitability, leading to changes in land use and potentially significant environmental and socioeconomic effects. This study analyzes the correspondence between changes in cropland and climate variables, revealing that higher temperatures and increased drought severity are associated with greater cropland loss. These patterns vary across regions and countries due to different socioeconomic factors and adaptation strategies. This global-scale analysis complements regional studies and provides context for locally-observed phenomena.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Food Science & Technology
Jose M. Mogollon, Alexander F. Bouwman, Arthur H. W. Beusen, Luis Lassaletta, Hans J. M. van Grinsven, Henk Westhoek
Summary: Efficient and targeted use of phosphorus is crucial in avoiding environmental issues caused by population growth and increased food demand. Global projections indicate a significant amount of new arable land will be needed by 2050, but with proper phosphorus management, cropland expansion can be avoided while improving productivity levels.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jianghao Wang, Junjie Zhang, Peng Zhang
Summary: The increasing demand for calories and protein, alongside urbanization, presents significant challenges to China's food security. This study examines the impact of temperature on land use in China using high-resolution satellite data and daily weather data from 1980 to 2010. The findings suggest that extremely hot weather has a long-lasting effect on reducing cropland in China, and climate change is predicted to further decrease China's cropland area by the end of this century.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Qingrui Wang, Ruimin Liu, Feng Zhou, Jing Huang, Lijun Jiao, Lin Li, Yifan Wang, Leiping Cao, Xinghui Xia
Summary: This study predicts a decreasing trend in future cropland N2O emissions in China using high-precision land use data, with a reduction in total emissions and cropland area. However, some cities in China are projected to emit more than current levels, and different land use and climate change scenarios will have significant impacts on cropland N2O emissions. The implementation of environmental projects, like the Grain for Green Plan, could effectively control emissions by about 12%.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Studies
Wenli Xiang, Minghong Tan, Xue Yang, Xiubin Li
Summary: This study estimated the change in irrigation water use (IWU) caused by cropland spatial shift in China using the CROPWAT model and multi-source data. The results showed that the movement of cropland centroid towards the northwest led to an increase in national IWU, particularly in the northwest region. The study suggests that priority should be given to increasing crop yield and decreasing IWU per unit area on existing croplands in the northwest, rather than reclaiming new cropland.
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT REVIEW
(2022)
Article
Environmental Studies
Xue Wang
Summary: Cultivated land area and fragmentation are crucial factors influencing food production in China. This study analyzed the spatial distribution and changes of cultivated land area and landscape fragmentation from a national perspective using land-cover data. The findings showed that the total cultivated land area in China decreased over time, but at a decreasing rate, while landscape fragmentation showed an increasing trend but also at a decreasing rate. Urban expansion and ecological protection programs were identified as major causes of these changes in cultivated land.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hui Cheng, Xiaowei Wang, Danling Chen
Summary: This study uses GIS technology and various models to investigate the spatial and temporal changes in cultivated land use in China, revealing the characteristics of cultivated land area, development and utilization degree, dynamic change degree of utilization rate, and use center and direction. The findings provide a scientific reference for the further development, utilization, and protection of cultivated land resources in China.
FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Agronomy
Linshan Yang, Qi Feng, Tiaoxue Lu, Jan F. Adamowski, Zhenliang Yin, Shadi Hatami, Meng Zhu, Xiaohu Wen
Summary: China's rapid population growth has led to a need for expanding cropland to meet food security challenges. The response of water use efficiency in croplands to changes in land use has not been well-documented in Northwest China's Hexi Corridor. This study evaluated the impact of cropland changes on water use efficiency in the region and found that irrigation and field management in croplands can help maintain a higher water use efficiency. Suitable water-saving irrigation is crucial for maintaining high water use efficiency without decreasing crop yield.
AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Studies
Kenneth Lee Copenhaver
Summary: In recent years, regulatory agencies in the USA and Europe have required documentation to ensure that land used for crop and biofuel production has not been converted from carbon-capturing grasslands or forests. However, accurately measuring these land cover changes has been challenging. This study analyzed satellite datasets, tabular datasets, and aerial imagery to identify potential locations of land use change more accurately. The results suggest that long-term historical land cover/land use analysis could help regulatory agencies measure the impacts of conversion of natural lands to crops more accurately.
Article
Environmental Sciences
J. L. Pancorbo, M. Quemada, Dar A. Roberts
Summary: During 2012-2016, California experienced a severe and prolonged drought, resulting in increased non-cultivated land. This study aimed to quantify agricultural trends in the Central Valley during and after the drought. The analysis showed that non-cultivated areas increased during the drought, with the largest cultivated area in the wettest year of 2017.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Mengjuan Li, Peng Ti, Xiuli Zhu, Tao Xiong, Yuting Mei, Zhilin Li
Summary: Understanding the distribution and changes of global wetlands and their conversion to other land cover types is important for wetland development, variation causes, and decision-making. This study comprehensively analyzed the changes in wetland distributions at various scales and the conversions between wetlands and other land cover types. The findings show that wetland area continued to increase globally over the last 20 years, with significant changes in specific regions. The major conversions involved natural land cover types, while human activities accounted for minor conversions. The analysis provides valuable information for research and policymaking.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Michael J. Wellington, Petra Kuhnert, Luigi J. Renzullo, Roger Lawes
Summary: Using a fixed maximum light use efficiency and environmental stress scalars could lead to an overestimation of crop land gross primary productivity. Predicting light use efficiency based on crop type and seasonal variation can produce more accurate estimates.
Article
Environmental Studies
Janne Ramo, Boris Tupek, Heikki Lehtonen, Raisa Makipaa
Summary: Through the study of economic and ecological models based on Finnish conditions, we found that afforestation can be more profitable than low-income agriculture even without subsidies. On high-income farms, forestry is more profitable than agriculture if carbon is moderately subsidized and afforestation costs are low. Additional afforestation subsidies are needed for forestry to compete with agriculture when afforestation costs are high. In the case of very high agricultural income, forestry remains less profitable unless carbon subsidies or additional afforestation subsidies are very high.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Zhanzhuo Chen, Min Huang, Daoye Zhu, Orhan Altan
Summary: As the second largest island in Japan, Hokkaido provides valuable land resources for the Japanese people. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial changes of land use in Hokkaido over the past two decades using remote sensing and GIS technology. Different scenarios were simulated to predict future land use changes, with findings showing the importance of protecting cultivated land in land use planning for the future.
Article
Ecology
Shuai Chen, Shunbo Yao
Summary: In order to reduce land conflicts and improve the coordination of human activities and land use, this study introduces a new framework for identifying the drivers of land expansion and evaluating multi-scenario simulation of land use. Using Mashan County in China as a case study, it indicates that the areas of cultivated land and grassland are decreasing, while the building area is increasing. Ecological land is primarily influenced by elevation, population density and temperature, while building land expansion is most influenced by gross domestic product (GDP). The results suggest that adopting the ecological protection scenario is an appropriate strategy for sustainable development in Mashan County.
ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS
(2023)
Article
Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
Cecilia Zagaria, Catharina J. E. Schulp, Ziga Malek, Peter H. Verburg
Summary: This study provides a comprehensive spatial assessment of potential farm-based adaptations in the Mediterranean region and evaluates the match between adaptation needs and capacities. The results show worsening climatic conditions in all croplands, especially in Egypt, Turkey, Greece, Spain, Morocco, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Israel. In more than half of these countries, over 60% of highly affected areas have no potential for implementing adaptations. This research highlights the importance of considering transformational options for regions approaching the limits of adaptation, and the need to bridge adaptation capacity and preparedness in regions with unrealized potential.
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Richard Schuster, Rachel Buxton, Jeffrey O. O. Hanson, Allison D. D. Binley, Jeremy Pittman, Vivitskaia Tulloch, Frank A. A. La Sorte, Patrick R. R. Roehrdanz, Peter H. H. Verburg, Amanda D. D. Rodewald, Scott Wilson, Hugh P. P. Possingham, Joseph R. R. Bennett
Summary: Protected areas face vulnerabilities due to weak governance, land-use intensification, and climate change. By applying a hierarchical optimization approach, this study identifies priority areas for expanding the global protected area system while considering these risks and maximizing conservation of terrestrial vertebrate species. The findings suggest a need for 1.6% expansion of the protected area system to reduce exposure to risks and achieve conservation targets.
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sophie P. de Bruin, Jasper van Vliet, Ina Lehmann, Peter Verburg
Summary: The Half Earth (HE) and Sharing the Planet (SP) scenarios have different equity implications for biodiversity restoration and conservation. The HE scenario is perceived to have higher distributive, recognitional, and procedural equity barriers, while the SP scenario is seen as harder to implement due to existing power structures. The equity perceptions are influenced by attitudes towards nature, professional focus, and views on equity in conservation and agriculture discussions.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Johan Rockstroem, Joyeeta Gupta, Dahe Qin, Steven J. Lade, Jesse F. Abrams, Lauren S. Andersen, David I. Armstrong McKay, Xuemei Bai, Govindasamy Bala, Stuart E. Bunn, Daniel Ciobanu, Fabrice DeClerck, Kristie Ebi, Lauren Gifford, Christopher Gordon, Syezlin Hasan, Norichika Kanie, Timothy M. Lenton, Sina Loriani, Diana M. Liverman, Awaz Mohamed, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, David Obura, Daniel Ospina, Klaudia Prodani, Crelis Rammelt, Boris Sakschewski, Joeri Scholtens, Ben Stewart-Koster, Thejna Tharammal, Detlef van Vuuren, Peter H. Verburg, Ricarda Winkelmann, Caroline Zimm, Elena M. Bennett, Stefan Bringezu, Wendy Broadgate, Pamela A. Green, Lei Huang, Lisa Jacobson, Christopher Ndehedehe, Simona Pedde, Juan Rocha, Marten Scheffer, Lena Schulte-Uebbing, Wim de Vries, Cunde Xiao, Chi Xu, Xinwu Xu, Noelia Zafra-Calvo, Xin Zhang
Summary: The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are closely linked but often treated independently. This study proposes safe and just Earth system boundaries to maintain stability and minimize harm to humans from Earth system change. Findings show that justice considerations have a greater impact on setting boundaries than safety considerations.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Katharina Schulze, Ziga Malek, Dmitry Schepaschenko, Myroslava Lesiv, Steffen Fritz, Peter H. Verburg
Summary: Short-rotation woody plantations (SRWPs) are important for climate change mitigation and adaptation due to their high yields and fast carbon storage. Their distribution and feasibility vary depending on location. We developed a systematic method to estimate the spatial distribution of SRWPs in (sub-)tropical biomes under current and future climate. Our results show that SRWP probabilities vary between regions and may not be feasible in many parts of (sub-)tropical biomes. Climate change also decreases SRWP probabilities, especially under higher emission scenarios, indicating a negative feedback. This has implications for global mitigation plans and wood resource availability.
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Joyeeta Gupta, Diana Liverman, Klaudia Prodani, Paulina Aldunce, Xuemei Bai, Wendy Broadgate, Daniel Ciobanu, Lauren Gifford, Chris Gordon, Margot Hurlbert, Cristina Y. A. Inoue, Lisa Jacobson, Norichika Kanie, Steven J. J. Lade, Timothy M. M. Lenton, David Obura, Chukwumerije Okereke, Ilona M. M. Otto, Laura Pereira, Johan Rockstroem, Joeri Scholtens, Juan Rocha, Ben Stewart-Koster, J. David Tabara, Crelis Rammelt, Peter H. Verburg
Summary: Living within planetary limits requires attention to justice as biophysical boundaries are not inherently just. Through collaboration between natural and social scientists, the Earth Commission defines and operationalizes Earth system justice to ensure that boundaries reduce harm, increase well-being, and reflect substantive and procedural justice.
NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
(2023)
Editorial Material
Food Science & Technology
Qiangyi Yu, Wenbin Wu, Huajun Tang
Summary: Changes in land systems have resulted in an increased distance between food production and consumption in China's breadbasket, leading to higher carbon emissions from grain transport.
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Elizaveta Khazieva, Ziga Malek, Peter H. Verburg
Summary: Central Asia is home to a large continuous grassland area, which is crucial for food security, biodiversity, and carbon storage. However, this region is experiencing intense land degradation due to land use change and climate change. The concept of land degradation neutrality (LDN) has been proposed to combat land degradation and promote sustainable land management. However, the impact of different datasets on the assessment of land degradation extent remains unclear.
ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
(2023)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Antonia E. Matthies, Catherine M. J. Fayet, Louise M. J. O'Connor, Peter H. Verburg
Summary: Agriculture plays a dual role in European biodiversity conservation, providing habitats for many species but also threatening these habitats. The focus is now on preserving agrobiodiversity, which lacks a consistent definition, measurement framework, or spatial indicator. This study compares four agrobiodiversity indicators in Europe and evaluates their sensitivity to land-use change scenarios.
ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
(2023)
Article
Soil Science
Yuan Liu, Songchao Chen, Qiangyi Yu, Zejiang Cai, Qingbo Zhou, Sonoko Dorothea Bellingrath-Kimura, Wenbin Wu
Summary: Crop rotation has a significant impact on soil organic matter, and incorporating it into digital soil mapping can improve the prediction of soil organic matter. In this study, crop rotation systems were mapped using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data, and the effectiveness of incorporating this information in predicting soil organic matter was explored. The results showed that crop rotation systems significantly influenced soil organic matter, and adding crop rotation enhanced the predictability of soil organic matter.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Claudia Parra-Paitan, Erasmus K. H. J. Zu Ermgassen, Patrick Meyfroidt, Peter H. Verburg
Summary: The production and trade of agricultural commodities, such as cocoa, have significant impacts on farmers and the environment. However, there is a lack of cross-country data on the identity and market share of trading companies involved in these commodities. This study addresses this gap by compiling detailed shipping data from eight cocoa-exporting countries and assessing the adoption of sustainability commitments by traders. The findings reveal a highly concentrated market, with a low overall adoption of sustainability commitments and barriers such as limited traceability and transparency.
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Onil Banerjee, Martin Cicowiez, ZIga Malek, Peter H. Verburg, Renato Vargas, Sean Goodwin, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Josue Avila Murillo
Summary: In post-conflict Colombia, the government puts emphasis on resettlement of displaced people by developing rural livelihoods and sustainable use of natural capital. This paper evaluates government proposals for expanding payment for ecosystem services (PES) and private-sector investment in habitat banking using an integrated model that considers economic, environmental, and social aspects. The results show that these programs have significant investment potential when considering non-market ecosystem services, and a portfolio investment approach combined with sustainable silvopastoral systems can lead to even higher returns. The study provides empirical evidence to inform policy decisions and maximize economic, environmental, and social outcomes.
ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
(2023)
Article
Remote Sensing
Qiangyi Yu, Yulin Duan, Qingying Wu, Yuan Liu, Caiyun Wen, Jianping Qian, Qian Song, Wenjuan Li, Jing Sun, Wenbin Wu
Summary: Remote sensing is important for crop mapping, but requires a large amount of labeled data. Traditional methods for collecting ground truth data are costly and inefficient, resulting in scarce up-to-date data for crop mapping. To address this challenge, we developed an interactive and iterative crowdsourcing framework called FarmWatch. Results showed that after four rounds of sample collection, the classification accuracy reached 96.30%, indicating sufficient ground truth data for current crop mapping.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATION AND GEOINFORMATION
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
David O. Obura, Fabrice DeClerck, Peter H. Verburg, Joyeeta Gupta, Jesse F. Abrams, Xuemei Bai, Stuart Bunn, Kristie L. Ebi, Lauren Gifford, Chris Gordon, Lisa Jacobson, Timothy M. Lenton, Diana Liverman, Awaz Mohamed, Klaudia Prodani, Juan Carlos Rocha, Johan Rockstroem, Boris Sakschewski, Ben Stewart-Koster, Detlef van Vuuren, Ricarda Winkelmann, Caroline Zimm
Summary: Despite increasing investment in conservation, biodiversity decline has not been reversed, and there is a risk of repeating this outcome in the next three decades due to neglect of drivers of decline, unrealistic expectations of biodiversity recovery, and insufficient attention to justice. To address these failings, our Earth system justice approach suggests six sets of actions, including reducing drivers of decline, halting biodiversity loss, restoring biodiversity, improving wellbeing, eliminating over-consumption, and respecting the rights and responsibilities of all communities. Urgent upscaling of these actions is needed to deliver the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.
Article
Environmental Studies
Lisa-Marie Hemerijckx, Gloria Nsangi Nakyagaba, Hakimu Sseviiri, Katarzyna Janusz, Michelle Eichinger, Shuaib Lwasa, Julian May, Peter H. Verburg, Anton Van Rompaey
Summary: Due to rapid urbanization, the food system in sub-Saharan African cities is facing increasing pressure. In this paper, we use the concept of foodshed to analyze the spatial extent of food provision for consumers of different socio-economic status in Kampala, Uganda. Based on surveys with households and food vendors, we map the foodshed by identifying where consumers obtain their food and its origin. The results show that 50% of the food consumed in the city comes from within a 120 km radius of Kampala, including 10% from within the city itself. At present, urban agriculture is twice as important as international imports for urban food supply. Higher-income urban dwellers have a more localized foodshed due to their involvement in urban agriculture, while lower-income newcomers heavily rely on retailers sourcing food from rural Uganda.
NPJ URBAN SUSTAINABILITY
(2023)
