Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Lin Zhang, Feng Wang, Hongquan Song, Tianning Zhang, Dong Wang, Haoming Xia, Shiyan Zhai, Yinzhan Liu, Tuanhui Wang, Yaobin Wang, Ruiqi Min
Summary: Climate change is expected to have spatial and temporal variations on winter wheat yields in Henan province, China. The study predicts a shorter maturity period for winter wheat, but delayed flowering dates. Overall, the annual mean winter wheat yield is projected to increase in the future, with variations depending on the societal development pathways.
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
(2022)
Article
Agronomy
Ketema Zeleke
Summary: The rise in air temperature and changes in rainfall patterns are expected to affect agricultural production, specifically wheat yield. By using different emission scenarios and projection periods, it was found that climate change will lead to a decrease in wheat yield, but adapting agronomic practices can help mitigate these impacts.
Article
Agronomy
Rui Yang, Panhong Dai, Bin Wang, Tao Jin, Ke Liu, Shah Fahad, Matthew Tom Harrison, Jianguo Man, Jiandong Shang, Holger Meinke, Deli Liu, Xiaoyan Wang, Yunbo Zhang, Meixue Zhou, Yingbing Tian, Haoliang Yan
Summary: Global warming and altered precipitation patterns pose a serious threat to crop production in the North China Plain. This study evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress on sensitive phenological stages of wheat and found that future yield projections may be overestimated. Clustering of drought stress patterns revealed potential alleviation of moderate drought stress in the future but similar frequency of severe drought stress.
Article
Biology
Yanxi Zhao, Dengpan Xiao, Huizi Bai, De Li Liu, Jianzhao Tang, Yongqing Qi, Yanjun Shen
Summary: Understanding the impact of climate change on crop production and water consumption is crucial for sustainable agricultural development. This study investigated the effects of temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and CO2 concentration on crop phenology, yield, and water consumption in a rice-wheat rotation system. The findings revealed that climate change significantly influences the growth process, yield, and water use efficiency of crops.
Article
Plant Sciences
Huizi Bai, Dengpan Xiao, Bin Wang, De Li Liu, Jianzhao Tang
Summary: Global climate change poses a serious threat to wheat production in the North China Plain. Extreme temperature events have significantly negative impacts on wheat yields, but increased rainfall and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration can partly compensate for the losses. Heat stress risk around flowering remains unchanged in future climate scenarios, while frost risk in spring slightly increases. Selecting appropriate cultivars and adjusting sowing time can help mitigate the negative effects of extreme temperature on wheat yields.
FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Agronomy
Fang Xu, Bin Wang, Chuan He, De Li Liu, Puyu Feng, Ning Yao, Renhe Zhang, Shutu Xu, Jiquan Xue, Hao Feng, Qiang Yu, Jianqiang He
Summary: The study found that, under future climate conditions, potential yield and rain-fed yield losses of summer maize can be reduced with appropriate measures, while the yield loss of spring maize is smaller. Changing sowing date and planting density has a greater impact on spring maize yield, and the influence weakens as climate change intensifies. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate other adaptation measures to cope with climate change in the Guanzhong Plain of China.
Article
Agronomy
Yuanling Zhang, Shu Kee Lam, Ping Li, Yuzheng Zong, Dongsheng Zhang, Xinrui Shi, Xingyu Hao, Jing Wang
Summary: Understanding the impacts of rising temperature and elevated [CO2] on different crop cultivars is crucial for adapting to climate change. Simulation and pot experiments were conducted to study the growth and yield of two wheat cultivars under elevated [CO2] and 2 degrees C warming. It was found that the early-maturing cultivar was better adapted to elevated [CO2] and rising temperature than the late-maturing one.
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
(2023)
Review
Plant Sciences
Mengting Qin, Ennan Zheng, Dingmu Hou, Xuanchen Meng, Fanxiang Meng, Yu Gao, Peng Chen, Zhijuan Qi, Tianyu Xu
Summary: The influence of global climate change on agricultural productivity is an ongoing concern. A database of future crop yield changes was developed, which found that maximum temperature, precipitation, adaptation measures, study area, and climate model had significant effects on changes in crop yield. Higher CO2 concentrations and suitable management strategies could mitigate the negative effects of warming temperatures, and crop yield with adaptation measures increased significantly compared to crop yield without adaptation measures. The results can guide policy and adaptation plans for increasing crop systems' resilience in the future.
Article
Environmental Sciences
E. Li, Jin Zhao, Johannes W. M. Pullens, Xiaoguang Yang
Summary: This study assessed the compound and separate effects of drought and high temperature on maize yield in Northeast China under different climate-year types. It was found that the compound impact of high temperature and drought led to higher maize yield loss than the individual impacts.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Food Science & Technology
Andrew J. McDonald, Balwinder-Singh, Alwin Keil, Amit Srivastava, Peter Craufurd, Avinash Kishore, Virender Kumar, Gokul Paudel, Sudhanshu Singh, A. K. Singh, R. K. Sohane, R. K. Malik
Summary: This study shows that adjusting the planting dates of wheat can significantly increase yields in eastern India, but this requires managing rice and wheat as a coupled system. The study also reveals that current cropping calendar management reduces the wheat yield potential in the rice-wheat cropping system of eastern India.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Erin Coughlan de Perez, Hamsa Ganapathi, Gibbon I. T. Masukwedza, Timothy Griffin, Timo Kelder
Summary: Previous analyses of global breadbasket failures relied on historical data, but climate change is causing unprecedented events that could lower crop yields beyond historical levels. Thus, current climate risks to our food system may be underestimated.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Agronomy
Yanxi Zhao, Dengpan Xiao, Huizi Bai, Jianzhao Tang, De Li Liu, Yongqing Qi, Yanjun Shen
Summary: Accurate prediction of crop yield is important for ensuring food security in regions and/or nations. This study developed a prediction model for wheat yield in the North China Plain by combining the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model with statistical regression models (SRMs). The results showed that the prediction model based on the random forest (RF) algorithm outperformed other regression algorithms. The prediction model achieved high accuracy and improved performance as wheat growth progressed, providing valuable information for adaptation strategies and food security planning.
Article
Agronomy
Rike Becker, Christoph Schueth, Ralf Merz, Tasneem Khaliq, Muhammad Usman, Tim Aus Der Beek, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Schulz
Summary: Climate change and variability pose a threat to sustainable food production, particularly in semi-arid regions with limited water resources and widespread irrigation. Higher temperatures and heat stress, rather than increased irrigation, are found to be the main factors affecting future crop yields and water needs. These findings have implications for adapting to climate change in intensely irrigated regions.
AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Wanrui Han, Xiang Lin, Dong Wang
Summary: The effects of different climatic elements on wheat yield are spatially heterogeneous by region, and the combined effects of climatic elements are higher than those of single elements. Climate change has a significant impact on wheat yield in different regions, but the degree of impact varies across regions.
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Fatemeh Yaghoubi, Mohammad Bannayan
Summary: High spatiotemporal climate variability in the northeast Iran has resulted in increased production risk for rainfed crops. This study characterizes the main rainfed growing regions based on drought patterns to explore potential opportunities for risk reduction.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Agronomy
Yanxi Zhao, Dengpan Xiao, Huizi Bai, Jianzhao Tang, De Li Liu, Yongqing Qi, Yanjun Shen
Summary: Accurate prediction of crop yield is important for ensuring food security in regions and/or nations. This study developed a prediction model for wheat yield in the North China Plain by combining the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model with statistical regression models (SRMs). The results showed that the prediction model based on the random forest (RF) algorithm outperformed other regression algorithms. The prediction model achieved high accuracy and improved performance as wheat growth progressed, providing valuable information for adaptation strategies and food security planning.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Jiangdong Liu, Hang Dong, Mengmeng Li, Ying Wu, Chunlin Zhang, Jinjian Chen, Zhou Yang, Guozhen Lin, De Li Liu, Jun Yang
Summary: This study comprehensively assessed the impact of heatwaves and their characteristics on public health in China under various climate change scenarios. The results showed that heatwave-related excess mortality will continue to increase in the future, with intensity being the main factor of concern. The duration of heatwaves was found to have the largest mortality burden among all characteristics.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HYGIENE AND ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Fangzheng Chen, Puyu Feng, Matthew Tom Harrison, Bin Wang, Ke Liu, Chenxia Zhang, Kelin Hu
Summary: Using machine learning methods, we investigated the impact of environmental variables on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and sequestration in cropland. The results showed that areas with high SOC stocks were located in low-altitude and water-sufficient regions. Soil properties regulated by elevation and precipitation had direct and indirect effects on SOC stocks. Our modeling approach can be applied to other regions and provide insights for mitigating cropland soil carbon loss under climate emergency conditions.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ning Luo, Qingfeng Meng, Puyu Feng, Ziren Qu, Yonghong Yu, De Li Liu, Christoph Mueller, Pu Wang
Summary: Population growth in China has increased the demand for food. Combining data-driven projections with field experiments, Luo et al. find that China can achieve self-sufficiency in maize production by implementing optimal planting density and management without expanding cropping areas. Based on their results, yield gains from soil improvement outweigh the adverse effects of climate change, implying that China can be self-sufficient in maize by using current cropping areas.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ke Liu, Matthew Tom Harrison, Haoliang Yan, De Li Liu, Holger Meinke, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Bin Wang, Bin Peng, Kaiyu Guan, Jonas Jaegermeyr, Enli Wang, Feng Zhang, Xiaogang Yin, Sotirios Archontoulis, Lixiao Nie, Ana Badea, Jianguo Man, Daniel Wallach, Jin Zhao, Ana Borrego Benjumea, Shah Fahad, Xiaohai Tian, Weilu Wang, Fulu Tao, Zhao Zhang, Reimund Roetter, Youlu Yuan, Min Zhu, Panhong Dai, Jiangwen Nie, Yadong Yang, Yunbo Zhang, Meixue Zhou
Summary: Extreme weather events pose a threat to food security, especially due to crop waterlogging, but there is a lack of global assessments on its impacts. This study develops a paradigm that identifies common stress patterns caused by waterlogging and uses a farming systems model to understand future changes. The findings suggest that yield penalties caused by waterlogging will increase in the future, but adaptations such as altering sowing time and using waterlogging-tolerant genotypes can help mitigate the losses.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yi Li, Kangkang Wei, Ke Chen, Jianqiang He, Yong Zhao, Guang Yang, Ning Yao, Ben Niu, Bin Wang, Lei Wang, Puyu Feng, Zhe Yang
Summary: Forecasting water deficit in northwestern China is a challenging task due to uncertain climate and various environmental factors. This study used multiple large-scale circulation indices and machine learning models to predict monthly water deficit. The results showed a strong correlation between the selected circulation indices and water deficit, and the forecasted values indicated severe water deficit in August 2022.
Article
Agronomy
Malte von Bloh, Rogerio de S. Noia, Xaver Wangerpohl, Ahmet Oguz Saltik, Vivian Haller, Leoni Kaiser, Senthold Asseng
Summary: This study developed a machine learning-based national soybean yield forecasting system for Brazil, which can accurately predict soybean yields at the municipal, state, and national levels. The system has wide applicability and can help policymakers and food traders plan strategies three months ahead of harvest.
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
Qinsi He, De Li Liu, Bin Wang, Aaron Simmons, Cathy Waters, Linchao Li, Puyu Feng, Yi Li, Annette Cowie, Peter de Voil, Alfredo Huete, Qiang Yu
Summary: Conservation agriculture management practices, such as cover crops and residue retention, have been found to improve soil quality and environmental sustainability in dryland cropping systems. The long-term adoption of cowpea cover crops could be a potential practice to sustain crop productivity with environmental co-benefits, especially in the wetter regions of southeast Australia.
AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Agronomy
Rogerio de S. Noia Junior, Luc Olivier, Daniel Wallach, Esther Mullens, Clyde W. Fraisse, Senthold Asseng
Summary: The study aimed to develop a simple methodology to estimate national wheat yields that can be applied to any country and crop by correlating climate data with national wheat production. Statistical models were built using the climate data from the most representative grid cell to estimate trend-corrected national wheat yields, and the models were validated in Brazil, France, and Russia with a small margin of error. This approach allows for early predictions of national crop yields during a cropping season.
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Linchao Li, Bin Wang, Puyu Feng, Jonas Jagermeyr, Senthold Asseng, Christoph Mueller, Ian Macadam, De Li Liu, Cathy Waters, Yajie Zhang, Qinsi He, Yu Shi, Shang Chen, Xiaowei Guo, Yi Li, Jianqiang He, Hao Feng, Guijun Yang, Hanqin Tian, Qiang Yu
Summary: This study investigates the influence of ensemble configurations on crop yield projections and modeling uncertainty. The findings suggest that specific ensemble compositions and sizes can effectively capture modeling uncertainty and represent the full ensemble. The contribution of individual crop models to the overall uncertainty varies by region and crop type, emphasizing the importance of considering specific models in local-scale applications.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Review
Soil Science
Hongtao Xing, Chris. J. Smith, Enli Wang, Ben Macdonald, David Warlind
Summary: Agricultural soils are a major source of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, primarily through microbial processes of ammonium oxidation and denitrification. Existing agro-ecological models vary in their understanding and treatment of these processes, as well as their ability to integrate multiple environmental factors. The comparison of six models revealed that environmental factors have differential impacts on nitrification and denitrification, indicating the need for improved quantification and understanding of these processes. Further measurements and research are necessary to enhance model algorithms and reduce errors in predicting N2O emissions.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Renhai Zhong, Yue Zhu, Xuhui Wang, Haifeng Li, Bin Wang, Fengqi You, Luis F. Rodriguez, Jingfeng Huang, K. C. Ting, Yibin Ying, Tao Lin
Summary: This study developed a deep neural network based multi-task learning framework to accurately estimate the variations of maize yield at the county level in the US Corn Belt, and found that extreme heat stress was the main cause of the yield loss in 2012.
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Heidi Webber, Senthold Asseng, Kenneth Boote, Jean Louis Durand, Frank Ewert, Pierre Martre, Dilys Sefakor Maccarthy
Summary: Climate change affects crop production, with different crops responding differently to changes in CO2 concentrations and water availability. Under the most severe climate change scenario, simulated crop yield losses range from 7% to 23%. Irrigation and nutrient management are likely the most effective adaptation options, but they require substantial investments and may not be universally applicable.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)