The effects of a large-scale ice storm event on the drivers of bark beetle outbreaks and associated management practices

Large-scale disturbances in forests are becoming more frequent due to a changing climate. Biotic disturbances can have cascading effects and therefore have a significant economic impact in forestry. It is therefore important to gain an understanding of the drivers of forest pest outbreaks in epidemic situations after large-scale disturbances and the implications for forest management. We investigated the influence of drivers on the bark beetle outbreaks following a large-scale ice storm in 2014 in Slovenia. A country-wide survey was done on the variables affecting ice storm damage to spruce trees. Additionally, the influence of the drivers of bark beetle attacks on outbreak intensity was assessed and compared under epidemic and endemic situations, and the effectiveness of forest management measures was assessed. Spruce trees were either uprooted or snapped, or the crown was lightly to severely damaged. The outbreaks under endemic situations were potentiated by the increasing amount of spruce and reduced by increasing slope. After the ice storm, the amount of sanitary felling because of outbreaks increased in areas with more steeper slopes, where the ice storm took place. An increase in the level of disturbance and a higher availability of dead and weakened trees positively affected bark beetle populations. The removal of dead trees alone in,the first year after the ice storm was found to be an insufficient measure for preventing bark beetle outbreaks. The ineffectiveness of current practices suggests that bark beetle management should be reconsidered with regard to large-scale disturbances. When defining measures against bark beetle outbreaks, drivers in epidemic situations should be prioritized over those that are important in endemic situations. The results imply that the known factors that affect bark beetle attacks are not necessarily the same as those that drive bark beetle attacks after extraordinary disturbance events. Mixed stands should be promoted in forests for sustainable management.