Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Volume 52, Issue 12, Pages 6985-6995Publisher
AMER CHEMICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b00292
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Funding
- NIH [P01 AG023394, P50 HL105185]
- NIH-NIEHS Grant [ES015462]
- Tufts University Institute of the Environment Fellowship
- Santander Postgraduate Research Award by University of Surrey, UK
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Significant spatial and temporal vanation in ultrafine particle (UFP; <100 nm in diameter) concentrations creates challenges in developing predictive models for epidemiological investigations. We compared the performance of land-use regression models built by combining mobile and stationary measurements (hybrid model) with a regression model built using mobile measurements only (mobile model) in Chelsea and Boston, MA (USA). In each study area, particle number concentration (PNC; a proxy for UFP) was measured at a stationary reference site and with a mobile laboratory driven along a fixed route during an similar to l-year momtonng period. In companng PNC measured at 20 residences and PNC estimates from hybnd and mobile models, the hybrid model showed higher Pearson correlations of natural log-transformed PNC (r = 0.73 vs 0.51 in Chelsea; r = 0.74 vs 0.47 in Boston) and lower root-mean-square error m Chelsea (0.61 vs 0.72) but no benefit in Boston (0.72 vs 0.7l). All models overpredicted log-transformed PNC by 3-6% at residences, yet the hybrid model reduced the standard deviation of the residuals by 15% in Chelsea and 31% in Boston with better tracking of overnight decreases in PNC. Overall, the hybrid model considerably outperformed the mobile model and could offer reduced exposure error for UFP epidemiology.
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