Article
Engineering, Environmental
Henry P. Huntington, Andrey Zagorsky, Bjorn P. Kaltenborn, Hyoung Chul Shin, Jackie Dawson, Maija Lukin, Parnuna Egede Dahl, Peiqing Guo, David N. Thomas
Summary: The changing Arctic Ocean is impacting Arctic societies and the global community, with threats to food security and culture for Indigenous Peoples, as well as new opportunities and challenges arising from resource development and tourism growth. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and economic shifts are emerging as interest in the Arctic increases.
Article
Environmental Sciences
David B. Bonan, Flavio Lehner, Marika M. Holland
Summary: Improved understanding of the sources of uncertainty in Arctic sea ice projections is crucial for assessing the impacts of changing Arctic environment. This study finds that internal variability, model structure, and emissions scenario all play significant roles in predicting Arctic sea-ice area. Internal variability has a larger impact on uncertainty in the short term, while emissions scenario becomes dominant over longer time scales. Additionally, there is a considerable dependency of model uncertainty on the season, with larger uncertainties in winter months.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
L. A. Roach, E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
Summary: Arctic sea ice has declined due to climate change, and atmospheric circulation plays a crucial role in the loss of sea ice in September and its interannual variability. However, there may be important model biases in capturing sea ice loss in other seasons.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
David B. Bonan, Tapio Schneider, Ian Eisenman, Robert C. J. Wills
Summary: State-of-the-art climate models show a wide range in projected decline of Arctic sea-ice area over the 21st century, with present-day biases and differences in Arctic warming being the main contributors to the intermodel spread. Using observations to constrain the projections can delay the timeline for an ice-free Arctic, with a likelihood of an ice-free Arctic occurring between 2036 and 2056 under a high-emissions scenario.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Economics
Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch
Summary: The study found that Arctic sea ice has been steadily decreasing as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations increase. Using observed data from 1979 to 2019, the researchers discovered a close linear relationship between Arctic sea ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide emissions. The sensitivity of Arctic sea ice area to carbon emissions is much stronger in observed data compared to climate models. This suggests that an ice-free Arctic may occur earlier than projected by current climate models for a given future emissions path. Additionally, there has been limited progress in accurately matching the observed carbon-climate response of Arctic sea ice in recent global climate modeling.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Lars Aue, Annette Rinke
Summary: We explore changes in sea ice concentration associated with synoptic cyclones in the Greenland, Barents and Kara Seas for each month of the year from 1979 to 2018. The findings reveal that these changes are significant throughout the year, but their strength and sign differ depending on the region, month, and time scale. The research also demonstrates significant alterations in cyclone impacts on sea ice over the past four decades, with the most pronounced changes occurring in October and November.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Shutong Song, Yue Chen, Xianyao Chen, Changshuo Chen, King-Fai Li, Ka-Kit Tung, Qiuli Shao, Yilin Liu, Xiaoyu Wang, Li Yi, Jinping Zhao
Summary: The rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice has created new trans-Arctic shipping routes. However, these projected routes may not be as cost-effective as expected due to the increased frequency of sea fog over areas with retreating sea ice. Our research shows that sea fog delays can be 1-4 days longer along the Northwest Passage (23%-27%) and 4%-11% longer along the Northern Sea Route than previously estimated. We have designed a new route based on projected sea-ice extent and sea fog frequency, which can reduce sailing time by 0.3-1 day by avoiding routes with heavier sea fog impacts. This new route also lowers the risk of accidents and saves costs from unscheduled port calls.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Bo Sun
Summary: The variability of sea ice in the polar regions has been comprehensively analyzed by applying the self-organizing map method. The study reveals that the variability modes of sea ice in the Arctic are inversely related to the overall increase in sea ice in the Antarctic, and vice versa. The dominant patterns of sea ice anomaly show in-phase variability in the Arctic, particularly in the marginal seas, while the Antarctic sea ice variability is characterized by out-of-phase variability between the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas and the rest of the Southern Ocean. The occurrence frequency of these patterns exhibits seasonal and decadal variability, and the latter is closely related to the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Richard Davy, Philipp Griewank
Summary: Evidence from gridded observations and climate reanalysis show that Arctic amplification peaked in the early 2000s, coinciding with the maximum loss of sea ice area, thickness, and volume. Based on CMIP6 projections and the CESM2 large ensemble, it is unlikely that Arctic amplification will be as high again in the 21st century, except under the lowest emissions scenarios where global temperatures stabilize while the Arctic continues to warm.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
J. K. Ridley, E. W. Blockley, M. A. Ringer
Summary: The study investigates the impact of declining sea ice on Arctic water vapor using a climate model. It shows that the changes in water vapor are influenced by both local evaporation and transport from mid-latitudes. The study also reveals distinct patterns in water vapor change, with sea ice loss affecting evaporation except in summer when transports dominate.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Claire L. Parkinson, Nicolo E. DiGirolamo
Summary: The satellite dataset spanning 42 years from 1979 to 2020 reveals recent losses in sea ice coverage in both the Arctic and Antarctic, with the Arctic experiencing record low sea ice extents while the Antarctic has seen record lows since 2015. The data also shows that globally, every calendar month has recorded a new monthly record low within the past 5 years, indicating a rapid decline in global sea ice coverage.
REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Amanda H. Lynch, Charles H. Norchi, Xueke Li
Summary: Sea ice in the Arctic has made maritime navigation difficult, but the reduction of ice cover due to climate change is expected to improve accessibility. Projections suggest that the retreat of sea ice from the eastern Arctic will require revisions to international maritime laws. Although the economic viability of open water routes in international waters is currently uncertain, it is predicted that these routes will become feasible by the midcentury, leading to a reduction in regulatory friction and a recalibration of legal frameworks.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Lily C. Hahn, Kyle C. Armour, David S. Battisti, Ian Eisenman, Cecilia M. Bitz
Summary: Arctic surface warming peaks in winter and reaches its minimum during summer. The change in effective heat capacity of sea ice plays a central role in explaining this seasonal asymmetry.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Robert Ricker, Frank Kauker, Axel Schweiger, Stefan Hendricks, Jinlun Zhang, Stephan Paul
Summary: The study found that the growth of Arctic sea ice is influenced by the decline of sea ice in summer and warmer ocean and surface temperatures in winter. There is increasing thermodynamic ice growth during winter in the Arctic marginal seas eastward from the Laptev Sea to the Beaufort Sea due to a negative feedback driven by sea ice retreat in summer. However, in the Barents and Kara Seas, increasing oceanic heat flux and air temperatures have resulted in negative trends in thermodynamic ice growth.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
D. Docquier, S. Vannitsem, F. Ragone, K. Wyser, X. S. Liang
Summary: Changes in Arctic sea ice are mainly driven by air and sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat transport, while changes in Arctic sea ice also considerably impact temperature and ocean heat transport. The influence of sea-ice area and volume on air temperature and ocean heat transport decreases progressively through the twenty-first century.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Anna Skarin, Mariana Verdonen, Timo Kumpula, Marc Macias-Fauria, Moudud Alam, Jeffrey Kerby, Bruce C. Forbes
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2020)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Logan T. Berner, Richard Massey, Patrick Jantz, Bruce C. Forbes, Marc Macias-Fauria, Isla Myers-Smith, Timo Kumpula, Gilles Gauthier, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Benjamin V. Gaglioti, Patrick Burns, Pentti Zetterberg, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Scott J. Goetz
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2020)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Agata Buchwal, Patrick F. Sullivan, Marc Macias-Fauria, Eric Post, Isla H. Myers-Smith, Julienne C. Stroeve, Daan Blok, Ken D. Tape, Bruce C. Forbes, Pascale Ropars, Esther Levesque, Bo Elberling, Sandra Angers-Blondin, Joseph S. Boyle, Stephane Boudreau, Noemie Boulanger-Lapointe, Cassandra Gamm, Martin Hallinger, Grzegorz Rachlewicz, Amanda Young, Pentti Zetterberg, Jeffrey M. Welker
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2020)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Eric Post, Sean M. P. Cahoon, Jeffrey T. Kerby, Christian Pedersen, Patrick F. Sullivan
Summary: A major challenge in predicting species' distributional responses to climate change involves understanding interactions between abiotic and biotic factors in structuring ecological communities. Recent theory proposes a resolution to the dichotomy of potentially competing species covarying positively at large scales but negatively at local scales, but empirical tests have been behind such developments. This study provides empirical support for theoretical solutions to this ecological puzzle, demonstrating the roles of both abiotic and biotic factors in the covariation of species at different scales.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Review
Biodiversity Conservation
Christian John, Eric Post
Summary: Vertical relief landscapes intensify ecological and climatological variation, impacting seasonal vertical migrants. Animals' adaptation to endogenous and exogenous seasonality makes vertical migrants sensitive to climate change.
Article
Plant Sciences
Andrew C. Martin, Marc Macias-Fauria, Michael B. Bonsall, Bruce C. Forbes, Pentti Zetterberg, Elizabeth S. Jeffers
Summary: Heterogeneity in responses of Arctic shrubs to climate variability has been observed, with nitrogen limitation identified as a key factor affecting shrub growth at the northern fringe of tall shrub expansion. Analysis of nitrogen isotopes in wood rings indicated individualistic nitrogen trajectories, but a common linear mechanism of nitrogen-dependent growth and the importance of plant-soil feedbacks were confirmed across the shrubs studied.
Article
Oceanography
Georgia M. Hole, Thomas Rawson, Wesley R. Farnsworth, Anders Schomacker, Olafur Ingolfsson, Marc Macias-Fauria
Summary: The 500-year history of naturally felled driftwood incursion to northern Svalbard reflects regional sea ice conditions and Arctic Ocean circulation. By analyzing provenance and age determinations, researchers gained insights into Arctic Ocean currents and climatic conditions with fine spatial resolution. The study indicates centennial-to decadal-scale shifts in source regions for driftwood incursion to Svalbard, aligning with fluctuations in Transpolar Drift and Beaufort Gyre strengths and associated climate conditions.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2021)
Article
Ecology
Christian John, Fraser Shilling, Eric Post
Summary: The 'drpToolkit' is an open-source Python package that automates the workflow of data management, image alignment and data extraction from time-series image sets, improving the spatial consistency and accuracy of ecological data. It simplifies the process of converting raw imagery to ecological data and facilitates cross-study comparisons of phenology to improve understanding of ecological response to climate change.
METHODS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
(2022)
Article
Oceanography
A. Mora-Soto, C. Aguirre, J. L. Iriarte, M. Palacios, E. C. Macaya, M. Macias-Fauria
Summary: In contrast to other coastal regions, the giant kelp ecosystem in southwestern Patagonia has remained stable in terms of area and biodiversity. The study analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in this region and found that cold events caused by glacier melting, extreme winds, and planetary-scale events have contributed to counteracting global warming trends. The study highlights the importance of southwestern Patagonia as a potential climatic refugium for the giant kelp ecosystem, although freshwater inputs and storm turbulence may pose new challenges.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Christian John, Eric Post
Summary: Assumptions about the role of climate in shaping species' distributions are important for conservation planning and wildlife management. This study focuses on North American bovid species and their potential distributional changes with future climate change. Modelling results suggest that suitable habitat will shift inconsistently across species, leading to variation in overlap between potential habitat and existing protected areas. The projected overlap with protected areas is sensitive to the warming scenario, with diminished protected area under greater warming.
ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Nicola Kuhn, Marcus P. Spiegel, Carolina Tovar, Katherine J. Willis, Marc Macias-Fauria
Summary: This study analyzed the relationship between root depth and vegetation sensitivity in drylands, and found a significant negative correlation. Deeper roots provided greater resistance to climate variability and the link between deeper roots and groundwater depth suggested that accessing groundwater resources was key for dryland vegetation's resilience to climate change.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Eric Post, Elina Kaarlejarvi, Marc Macias-Fauria, David A. Watts, Pernille Sporon Boving, Sean M. P. Cahoon, R. Conor Higgins, Christian John, Jeffrey T. Kerby, Christian Pedersen, Mason Post, Patrick F. Sullivan
Summary: Biodiversity is declining globally, including in the Arctic tundra where a 15-year experiment showed a decline in diversity of plants, fungi, and lichens. However, the decline was slower in the presence of large herbivores, which has implications for efforts to mitigate the impact of climate warming on tundra diversity.
Article
Ecology
Christian John, Jeffrey T. Kerby, Thomas R. Stephenson, Eric Post
Summary: Climate change can modify plant phenology, which in turn affects herbivore population dynamics. Understanding spatial variation in plant growth is important for management decisions. This study used time-lapse cameras to examine the timing of spring plant growth in the range of endangered Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep in California. The results showed variation in green-up timing across elevation and between years, indicating a potential link between bighorn migration and snowmelt and plant growth.
REMOTE SENSING IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Marcus P. Spiegel, Alexander Volkovitskiy, Alexandra Terekhina, Bruce C. Forbes, Taejin Park, Marc Macias-Fauria
Summary: The growth of tall woody vegetation in the Arctic, driven by warming, can accelerate climate change through positive feedbacks. Despite local evidence suggesting that large herbivores limit this vegetation shift, it remains uncertain whether herbivory pressure is a significant control on ecosystem structure and functioning at larger, regional scales. Our study on the Yamal Peninsula in West Siberia, using satellite remote sensing and data on reindeer migrations, reveals that higher reindeer herbivory pressure is consistently associated with lower coverage of tall woody vegetation. This suggests that, at current population densities, large herbivores counteract Arctic vegetation responses to climate change over large spatial scales.