Do Residency Selection Factors Predict Radiology Resident Performance?

Rationale and Objectives: The purpose of our study is to determine what information in medical student residency applications predicts radiology residency success as defined by objective clinical performance data. Materials and Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of residents who entered our institution's residency program through the National Resident Matching Program as postgraduate year 2 residents and completed the program over the past 2 years. Medical school grades, selection to Alpha Omega Alpha (AOA) Honor Society, United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores, publication in peer-reviewed journals, and whether the applicant was from a peer institution were the variables examined. Clinical performance was determined by calculating each resident's cumulative major discordance rate for on-call cases the resident read and gave a preliminary interpretation. A major discordance was defined as a difference between the preliminary resident and the final attending interpretations that could immediately impact the care of the patient. A multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine significant variables. Results: Twenty-seven residents provided preliminary reports on call for 67,145 studies. The mean major discordance rate was 1.08% (range 0.34%-2.54%). Higher USMLE Step 1 scores, publication before residency, and election to AOA Honor Society were all statistically significant predictors of lower major discordance rates (P values 0.01, 0.01, and <0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Overall resident performance was excellent. There are predictors that help select the better performing residents, namely higher USMLE Step 1 scores, one to two publications during medical school, and election to AOA in the junior year of medical school.