Article
Construction & Building Technology
Yihao Tang, Ting Sun, Zhiwen Luo, Hamidreza Omidvar, Natalie Theeuwes, Xiaoxiong Xie, Jie Xiong, Runming Yao, Sue Grimmond
Summary: Building energy simulations often do not consider local climate, a new approach using uTMY and SUEWS is proposed to support global building energy design and improve design applicability. Vertical variations in wind speed have a greater impact on simulated building energy than temperature variations.
BUILDING AND ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Water Resources
Hongli Liu, Bryan A. Tolson, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood
Summary: This study examines the potential of using a forcing ensemble to identify robust parameters through model calibration, comparing ensemble forcing-based calibration with deterministic forcing-based calibration. Results show that ensemble calibration generates less biased parameter estimates and improves the overall reliability and simulation skill of ensemble simulation results by reducing the risk of inaccurate flow simulation caused by poor-quality meteorological inputs.
HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
(2021)
Review
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Hadush Meresa, Yongqiang Zhang, Jing Tian, Ning Ma, Xuanze Zhang, Hadi Heidari, Shahid Naeem
Summary: Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on extreme hydrological events is crucial for water resource and risk management. Integrated modeling frameworks play a key role in studying these impacts, with various components contributing to uncertainty in predicting extreme flows in different regions.
SURVEYS IN GEOPHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yi Wu, Chiyuan Miao, Xuewei Fan, Jiaojiao Gou, Qi Zhang, Haiyan Zheng
Summary: Decomposing the uncertainty of global climate models is crucial for understanding climate change. The study compares sources of uncertainty in temperature and precipitation projections from different phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and investigates the effectiveness of bias correction methods. The findings provide insights into model characteristics and offer decision-makers more accurate information for climate mitigation and adaptation measures.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Conrad Wasko, Ashish Sharma, Alexander Pui
Summary: The study reveals a significant positive correlation between economic losses and local temperature, particularly as events become more extreme, with this correlation being more pronounced for storms compared to floods. Although the local associations of economic loss with temperature cannot be directly linked to rising global temperatures due to climate change, they are consistent with observed extreme precipitation-temperature associations, providing insights into understanding future natural catastrophes.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Hai Lin, Yi Yang, Shuguang Wang, Shuyu Wang, Jianping Tang, Guangtao Dong
Summary: This study evaluates the performance of the Multi-Source Weather (MSWX) dataset in China and compares it with other datasets. The results show that MSWX reasonably reproduces temperature and precipitation, but has biases in wind speed estimation. The study reveals both the advantages and disadvantages of MSWX and emphasizes the importance of research into climate change and sustainable development in East Asia.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Reyhaneh Rahimi, Hassan Tavakol-Davani, Mohsen Nasseri
Summary: This research introduces a new framework to evaluate the parametric uncertainty of downscaling models, and assesses the performance of different bias correction methods. The results show that LOCI and PT outperform the conventional VIF in both precipitation amount and occurrence modules in every assessed climate class within the SDSM framework.
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Guoqiang Tang, Martyn P. Clark, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Hongli Liu, Shervan Gharari, Louise Arnal, Hylke E. Beck, Andrew W. Wood, Andrew J. Newman, Simon Michael Papalexiou
Summary: This study analyzes the impact of uncertainties in meteorological forcing data on hydrological modeling, specifically in cryosphere basins. It quantifies the uncertainties in various variables and finds that precipitation uncertainties have the dominant impact.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Stefan Lange, Chantal Hari, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Olaf Conrad, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Katja Frieler
Summary: Current changes in the world's climate have significant impacts on various sectors globally. The existing global climate datasets do not cover high spatio-temporal resolutions required to understand these impacts. This study presents a climate forcing dataset, CHELSA-W5E5, with high resolution for air temperatures, precipitation rates, and solar radiation. The downscaled data show increased accuracy and can be valuable for climate change impact studies at global and regional levels.
EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Qin Zhang, Yaoyao Gan, Liping Zhang, Dunxian She, Gangsheng Wang, Shuxia Wang
Summary: Bias correction is a vital technique for improving the accuracy of climate model outputs in regional studies. This study introduces a novel bias correction method, piecewise-quantile mapping (PQM), that combines piecewise mapping with quantile mapping to correct both extreme and non-extreme data. The results show that PQM performs better than other commonly used methods in correcting precipitation percentiles and extreme indices. It also captures the spatial distributions of extreme indices well. PQM provides more accurate bias correction of climate model outputs, reducing uncertainty in subsequent analyses, especially in extreme conditions.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Lamees Shah, Carlos Alberto Arnillas, George Arhonditsis
Summary: Forecasts of increased frequency of meteorological extremes have significant implications for biotic communities, terrestrial and aquatic environments, ecosystem services, and societal prosperity. Canada is expected to experience greater warming rates than other regions, and changes in meteorological extremes vary across the country. Large-scale atmospheric oscillations have a discernible impact on air temperature and humidity variables, but less influence on relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation variability. The observed trends of air temperature, humidity, and wind speed extremes have profound effects on the phenology of ecosystems and human experience of weather.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2022)
Article
Agricultural Engineering
A. Y. Sheshukov, J. Gao, K. R. Douglas-Mankin, H. Yen
Summary: Climate projections from general circulation models (GCM) are often downscaled to grid cells or subbasins to project future hydrologic changes. Uncertainties in downscaled climate projections arise mainly from the models themselves, representative concentration pathways (RCP), and the downscaling procedure. This study evaluated the effects of different historical data sources on precipitation and temperature projections in 54 subbasins of the Smoky Hill River watershed in the U.S. Central Great Plains.
TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASABE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Deeksha Rastogi, Shih-Chieh Kao, Moetasim Ashfaq
Summary: We present an intercomparison of high-resolution downscaled climate projections based on a six-member GCM ensemble from CMIP6. The downscaled GCMs were generated using both dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques with two meteorological reference observations. We found that dynamical downscaling improves some performance indices, but introduces bias in others, highlighting the need for statistical correction. Downscaled datasets after bias-correction show good agreement with observations. However, the choice of downscaling techniques and reference observations influences the hydroclimate characteristics of the downscaled data.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Farshad Fathian, Mohammad Ghadami, Zohreh Dehghan
Summary: Due to increasing greenhouse gases, Iran is experiencing changes in patterns and trends of extreme climate events. Future climate extremes may have significant implications for agricultural, economical, and environmental balances. Temperature and precipitation extremes in Iran were analyzed for the observational and future periods using climate models. The results show notable changes in climate extremes, with increasing warming trends and changes in precipitation patterns. These changes are expected to increase the risk of severe extreme events and make society more vulnerable to natural disasters.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Mackenzie L. Blanusa, Carla J. Lopez-Zurita, Stephan Rasp
Summary: Climate projection uncertainty can be divided into model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability. This study investigates the sources of uncertainty in the projected frequencies of daily maximum temperature and precipitation extremes using large initial-condition ensembles globally. It found that internal variability dominates for maximum temperature extremes in the next 2 decades, while model and scenario uncertainty become dominant in the tropics and extra-tropics in the middle of the twenty-first century. For precipitation extremes, internal variability dominates throughout the century, except in some tropical regions like West Africa. The findings emphasize the importance of large ensembles for understanding climate projections.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Noriko N. Ishizaki, Hideo Shiogama, Naota Hanasaki, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tosiyuki Nakaegawa
Summary: Representing the spatial dependence on temporal variations in climate scenarios is important for impact assessments in various sectors. This study analyzed the spatial aspects of climate scenarios in Japan and found that the performance was strongly dependent on the grid spacing of the parent model in simple downscaling processes. The combination of an analogue method and bias correction has the potential to effectively represent the spatial aspects of climate scenarios.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Jiabo Yin, Pierre Gentine, Louise Slater, Lei Gu, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Wolfram Schlenker
Summary: The frequency of compound drought-heatwave events is expected to increase by tenfold globally due to climate change, resulting in significant negative impacts on vegetation and socio-economic productivity. This is mainly attributed to the negative coupling between terrestrial water storage and temperature, which constrains the formation of terrestrial carbon sink. It is projected that over 90% of the global population and gross domestic product will be exposed to increasing risks of compound drought-heatwaves in the future, with poorer and more rural areas experiencing more severe impacts. These findings provide crucial insights for assessing and mitigating the adverse effects of compound hazards on ecosystems and human well-being.
NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ryuhei Yoshida, Toshichika Iizumi
Summary: Governmental expenditure on agricultural R&D has been important in increasing crop yields, but studies indicate that yield growth rates will decline in a warming climate. This study used a global gridded crop model to assess the impact of a $1 billion increase in R&D expenditure on maize yield gain in 71 maize-producing countries. Results show that the highest yield response is projected for low-income countries, and the response decreases under higher warming scenarios.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Wonsik Kim, Toshichika Iizumi, Nanae Hosokawa, Masahiro Tanoue, Yukiko Hirabayashi
Summary: Considering the rise in wet extremes due to climate change, it is important to assess the impact of floods on crop production in order to manage flood risks in agriculture effectively. A global calculation of inundation areas' return periods was conducted to analyze flood-induced crop yield changes, revealing significant yield losses for soy, rice, wheat, and maize. These losses amount to a total production loss of 5.5 billion dollars during the 1982-2016 period. This study provides valuable information for flood risk management in agriculture, but further research is needed to address the study's limitations.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Debanjali Saha, Kazuo Oki, Koshi Yoshida, Naota Hanasaki, Hideaki Kamiya
Summary: The flood retention capacity of paddy fields in Japan is well-known, although previous studies have not fully explored their potential in large river basins. This study improved a hydrological model to simulate the reduction in peak discharge from paddy reservoirs in the Abukuma River basin of Japan. The results showed that paddy reservoirs can effectively reduce peak discharge, especially in areas with high paddy coverage.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Dongyang Wei, Jessica A. Gephart, Toshichika Iizumi, Navin Ramankutty, Kyle Frankel Davis
Summary: Food production stability is important for food security and is affected by variations in planted area, harvested area, and yield. This study finds that shocks in planted area and harvestable fraction co-occur with a large percentage of production shocks for different crops in the United States. Additionally, climatic variables explain a significant portion of the variance in planted area, harvestable fraction, and yield.
NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Julien Boulange, Takeo Yoshida, Kazuya Nishina, Masashi Okada, Naota Hanasaki
Summary: Increasing demands for accurate water risk indicators have led to the development of interactive websites. However, these websites often lack descriptions of data sources and limitations, and do not consider uncertainty. To address these limitations, the H08 Water Risk Tool provides rigorous assessments of historical and future water resources, incorporating advanced hydrological simulations. The tool allows interpretation of high-quality water risk indicators and ensures transparency through open-source tools and detailed methodology.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Noriko Nozaki, Nanae Hosokawa, Yasuhiro Doi, Wonsik Kim, Toshichika Iizumi
Summary: This research uses modeling to predict the future trends of agricultural output and productivity indicators. The results show that modeling can help fill data gaps and that climate adaptation has a greater impact on agricultural output than on small-scale farmer productivity. It emphasizes the importance of selecting appropriate indicators to track the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Sonali McDermid, Mallika Nocco, Patricia Lawston-Parker, Jessica Keune, Yadu Pokhrel, Meha Jain, Jonas Jaegermeyr, Luca Brocca, Christian Massari, Andrew D. Jones, Pouya Vahmani, Wim Thiery, Yi Yao, Andrew Bell, Liang Chen, Wouter Dorigo, Naota Hanasaki, Scott Jasechko, Min-Hui Lo, Rezaul Mahmood, Vimal Mishra, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Dev Niyogi, Sam S. Rabin, Lindsey Sloat, Yoshihide Wada, Luca Zappa, Fei Chen, Benjamin I. Cook, Hyungjun Kim, Danica Lombardozzi, Jan Polcher, Dongryeol Ryu, Joe Santanello, Yusuke Satoh, Sonia Seneviratne, Deepti Singh, Tokuta Yokohata
Summary: Irrigation accounts for a large majority of global freshwater withdrawals and consumptive water use, causing significant impacts on the Earth system. This Review provides a summary of how irrigation currently affects key components of the Earth system. It is estimated that over 3.6 million km(2) of land is currently being irrigated, with hot spots in the US High Plains, California Central Valley, Indo-Gangetic Basin, and northern China. Process-based models estimate that around 2,700 +/- 540 km(3) of irrigation water is withdrawn globally each year, and this is broadly consistent with reported values from countries, despite uncertainties.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Noriko Nozaki, Zhipin Ai, Naota Hanasaki, Toshichika Iizumi, Masashi Kiguchi, Wonsik Kim, Taikan Oki, Andi Besse Rimba, Daisuke Tokuda, Yukiko Hirabayashi
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Takahiro Oda, Jun'ya Takakura, Longlong Tang, Toshichika Iizumi, Norihiro Itsubo, Haruka Ohashi, Masashi Kiguchi, Naoko Kumano, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Masahiro Tanoue, Makoto Tamura, Qian Zhou, Naota Hanasaki, Tomoko Hasegawa, Chan Park, Yasuaki Hijioka, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Yasushi Honda, Tetsuya Matsui, Hiroyuki Matsuda, Hiromune Yokoki, Taikan Oki
Summary: This study estimates the aggregated cost of climate change by using an integrated assessment model and detailed-process-based climate impact models, along with different discount rates for market and non-market values. The results show that setting a lower discount rate for non-market value, i.e., a higher estimate for future value, makes the aggregated cost of achieving the Paris Agreement economically reasonable.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yuji Masutomi, Toshichika Iizumi, Kei Oyoshi, Nobuyuki Kayaba, Wonsik Kim, Takahiro Takimoto, Yoshimitsu Masaki
Summary: This study compared the monthly precipitation forecasts of two different systems, JMA/MRI-CPS2 and St-SCF, and found that JMA/MRI-CPS2 had higher skill for zero-month lead forecasts, but comparable skill for longer lead time forecasts. It also identified regions and seasons where JMA/MRI-CPS2 performed poorly compared to St-SCF, indicating the need for improvement in certain dynamics.
JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Zhipin Ai, Naota Hanasaki
Summary: A better understanding of the food-water nexus requires an integrated model that can simulate both food production and water resources. By calibrating parameters and improving algorithms, we enhanced the H08 model to simulate crop yields, and found that the effects of CO2 fertilization and vapor pressure deficit had opposite impacts on crop yield.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yuki Kimura, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yuki Kita, Xudong Zhou, Dai Yamazaki
Summary: Flooding is a major natural hazard that is projected to increase with global warming. This study examined methods for constructing future-flood-hazard maps and found that the lookup method, which uses simulation results without bias correction, is more suitable than the runoff-correction method. The lookup method also allows for improvement of the reanalysis hazard map through upgrading of the model and separate estimation of changes due to climate change.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
