Identifying the Relative Contributions of Climate and Grazing to Both Direction and Magnitude of Alpine Grassland Productivity Dynamics from 1993 to 2011 on the Northern Tibetan Plateau

Alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau are claimed to be sensitive and vulnerable to climate change and human disturbance. The mechanism, direction and magnitude of climatic and anthropogenic influences on net primary productivity (NPP) of various alpine pastures remain under debate. Here, we simulated the potential productivity (with only climate variables being considered as drivers; NPPP) and actual productivity (based on remote sensing dataset including both climate and anthropogenic drivers; NPPA) from 1993 to 2011. We denoted the difference between NPPP and NPPA as NPPpc to quantify how much forage can be potentially consumed by livestock. The actually consumed productivity (NPPac) by livestock were estimated based on meat production and daily forage consumption per standardized sheep unit. We hypothesized that the gap between NPPpc and NPPac (NPPgap) indicates the direction of vegetation dynamics, restoration or degradation. Our results show that growing season precipitation rather than temperature significantly relates with NPPgap, although warming was significant for the entire study region while precipitation only significantly increased in the northeastern places. On the Northern Tibetan Plateau, 69.05% of available alpine pastures showed a restoration trend with positive NPPgap, and for 58.74% of alpine pastures, stocking rate is suggested to increase in the future because of the positive mean NPPgap and its increasing trend. This study provides a potential framework for regionally regulating grazing management with aims to restore the degraded pastures and sustainable management of the healthy pastures on the Tibetan Plateau.