Article
Environmental Studies
Dani Broitman, Yakov Ben -Haim
Summary: Spatial planning involves uncertainty about the future, and scenario-based forecasting is a common way to address this uncertainty. Combining retrospective analysis with prospective scenario-based forecasting can provide more accurate and useful insights for future decision-making.
Article
Economics
Tjark Gall, Flore Vallet, Bernard Yannou
Summary: This study explores the complex concepts within futures studies and presents a revised version of the futures cone. By comparing and analyzing 14 different representations, common characteristics, derived characteristics, and newly proposed characteristics were identified and described. The revised futures cone helps to communicate these concepts more coherently, enhancing futures literacy.
Article
Economics
Xiaozhu Guo, Yisu Huang, Chao Liang, Muhammad Umar
Summary: This paper examines the predictability of various volatility components on EUA volatility and finds that short-term and long-term asymmetry, extreme observations, and jump information have significant effects. The models extended with these components demonstrate better predictive performance, especially during periods of low volatility.
Article
Business, Finance
Yu Wei, Yizhi Wang, Brian M. Lucey, Samuel A. Vigne
Summary: This study compares the impact and predictive ability of cryptocurrency uncertainty on volatility forecasts of COMEX gold and silver futures markets using the GARCH-MIDAS model and other commonly used uncertainty measures. The results show that cryptocurrency uncertainty significantly affects the volatilities of precious metal futures markets, and the out-of-sample evidence confirms the strong predictive power of cryptocurrency uncertainty on volatility forecasting of the precious metal market.
JOURNAL OF COMMODITY MARKETS
(2023)
Article
Economics
Chao Liang, Feng Ma, Lu Wang, Qing Zeng
Summary: This study investigates the impact of five uncertainty indices on US natural gas futures volatility forecasting within the GARCH-MIDAS framework. The in-sample results show that most uncertainty indices have a significant effect on natural gas futures volatility, with geopolitical risk and equity market volatility indices containing the most useful information. Out-of-sample predictions demonstrate that the EMV index exhibits superior predictive ability during certain special periods, such as post-crisis, expansions, and low volatility.
JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
(2021)
Article
Business, Finance
Jiadong Liu, Fotis Papailias, Barry Quinn
Summary: This study is the first to apply Variable Length Markov Chain (VLMC) analysis in the field of finance, and found that both VLMC and technical analysis methods are effective in predicting the direction of commodity returns with significantly higher annualized mean returns than passive long strategies. The results suggest the existence of a short-term learning effect in commodity markets that can be exploited using innovative direction-of-change forecasting techniques.
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
(2021)
Article
Business, Finance
Jian Liu, Ziting Zhang, Lizhao Yan, Fenghua Wen
Summary: This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the volatility of European Union (EU) carbon futures prices. The EU EPU index has higher forecast accuracy for price volatility compared to the global EPU index, indicating a noticeable effect on EUA futures. Robustness checks confirm that the EU EPU index has strong predictive power for EUA futures.
FINANCIAL INNOVATION
(2021)
Article
Economics
Zibo Niu, Feng Ma, Hongwei Zhang
Summary: The purpose of this article is to investigate whether various uncertainty measures provide incremental information for the prediction of crude oil volatility under a high-frequency HAR model. The results show that uncertainty measures can be utilized to predict crude oil volatility, but adding a large number of uncertain variables may not significantly improve the volatility prediction. The impact of different uncertainty measures on crude oil volatility also varies during different periods.
Article
Economics
Hui Qu, Guo Li
Summary: Recent literature suggests that crude oil price is influenced by alternative energy prices, has volatility spillover effects with related markets, and is affected by macroeconomics and geopolitics factors. Therefore, we propose a multi-perspective investor attention index based on Google Trends to improve the prediction of oil price volatility. Empirical results show that investor attention from different perspectives has varying impacts on oil price volatility at different forecast horizons. The model incorporating multi-perspective investor attention outperforms the benchmark model and the model considering only investor attention to crude oil. Moreover, considering the heterogeneity and asymmetry of multi-perspective investor attention further enhances oil price volatility prediction, and combining attention-augmented models with dynamic model selection produces stable and significantly superior forecasts.
Article
Environmental Studies
Guangqiang Liu, Xiaozhu Guo
Summary: This paper finds that incorporating commodity futures volatility information with model shrinkage methods is an effective way to predict US stock market volatility, with clearer predictability during high volatility periods. The robust results of the study have practical implications.
Article
Economics
Duarte Dinis, Ana Barbosa-Povoa, Angelo Palos Teixeira
Summary: This paper explores the integration of time series forecasting capabilities in maintenance capacity planning for complex product systems (CoPS), using real data to assess different forecasting models. The multiplicative Holt-Winters (MHW) model is selected and integrated into a Decision Support System (DSS) to forecast the workload probability distribution of future maintenance interventions, validating the developed tool against current forecasting practices employed by MROs.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
(2022)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Xinyu Wu, Xuebao Yin, Xueting Mei
Summary: We propose a new model, the EGARCH-MIDAS-CPU model, which combines the leverage effect and climate policy uncertainty to forecast the volatility of European Union allowance futures. Empirical analysis shows that the EUAF exhibits a leverage effect in its volatility, and the CPU has a significantly negative impact on the volatility. Out-of-sample analysis suggests that the EGARCH-MIDAS-CPU model outperforms competing models in terms of volatility forecasting accuracy. Additionally, the model can be further applied to price carbon futures, improving market liquidity and facilitating carbon peak and carbon neutrality.
Article
Thermodynamics
Ditian Zhang, Pan Tang
Summary: In this study, we examine the predictive power of monthly European Carbon futures prices using a wide range of potential forecasting indicators, including both economic variables and technical indicators. Our results show that technical indicators have a statistically significant ability to forecast prices, surpassing that of economic variables. We also find that technical indicators have a greater influence on the forecasting models compared to economic variables, as evidenced by the results from different forecasting methods. These findings highlight the importance of technical indicators in predicting the price of EUAs and provide valuable insights for policymakers in formulating energy policies.
Article
Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
Mengshuai Su, Hui Liu, Chengqing Yu, Zhu Duan
Summary: This study proposes a hybrid forecasting model that combines quadratic forecasting and residual forecasting to accurately predict crude oil futures. The results demonstrate that the model significantly improves the accuracy of the predictions and outperforms other existing models in various experiments.
DIGITAL SIGNAL PROCESSING
(2022)
Article
Economics
Xinyu Wu, Hao Cui, Lu Wang
Summary: This paper proposes a new model (CARR-MIDAS) that incorporates economic policy uncertainty into predicting crude oil futures price volatility. The empirical results show that these economic policy uncertainty indices have a significantly negative impact on the volatility of oil futures prices, with the China EPU index outperforming the others in forecasting.
APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Glenn Lyons, Greg Marsden
Summary: This paper examines the incorporation of uncertainty into decision-making through a case study of the Department for Transport in England, highlighting the need for a balance between technical depth and analytical breadth. It suggests a new approach to opening out and closing down uncertainties in transport decision-making, emphasizing the importance of opening up processes for reaching technical advice and negotiating uncertainties.
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Greg Marsden, Jillian Anable
Summary: This paper emphasizes the need for radical action across all policy sectors as required by the Paris Agreement. Without a clear framework that considers interactions across spatial scales, policy responses will be incoherent and inadequate. Through a case study of the transport sector in the UK, key elements such as budget coherence, accounting coherence, and policy coherence are highlighted for setting out a new framework.
Article
Economics
Greg Marsden, Iain Docherty
Summary: The paper examines the possibility for significant policy changes in the transport sector in England and Scotland due to the Coronavirus pandemic. While some policy commitments have been accelerated, the government's capacity for radical policy adaptation has been limited under the stress of the pandemic. The crisis is seen as a potential disruptor to existing trajectories in terms of business practices, industry structures, ways of working, and public finances.
Article
Social Issues
Angela Smith, Janet E. Dickinson, Greg Marsden, Tom Cherrett, Andrew Oakey, Matt Grote
Summary: This paper critically examines the research on public acceptance of drones, finding that the conflation of diverse drone applications has caused ambiguity in concerns and the absence of clear parameters for drone use in local transport environments has limited informed public opinion. Studies that build familiarity and understanding of practical drone use show potential for positive outcomes. The paper calls for further research to build understanding of drones within transport environments to facilitate more informed debates among stakeholders to shape future transport provision.
TECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Energy & Fuels
John Barrett, Steve Pye, Sam Betts-Davies, Oliver Broad, James Price, Nick Eyre, Jillian Anable, Christian Brand, George Bennett, Rachel Carr-Whitworth, Alice Garvey, Jannik Giesekam, Greg Marsden, Jonathan Norman, Tadj Oreszczyn, Paul Ruyssevelt, Kate Scott
Summary: Research suggests that reducing energy demand can reduce reliance on carbon removal technologies, have moderate investment requirements, and increase climate ambition. National policies should prioritize energy demand reduction measures.
Article
Transportation
Matt Grote, Aliaksei Pilko, James Scanlan, Tom Cherrett, Janet Dickinson, Angela Smith, Andrew Oakey, Greg Marsden
Summary: This study analyzed concerns and issues regarding the shared airspace concept by conducting an interactive online workshop with participants from the General Aviation (GA) community in the UK. The findings highlighted the need for aircraft to be equipped with Detect-And-Avoid (DAA) systems and the importance of developing equitable regulatory and technology environments for managing shared airspace.
JOURNAL OF AIR TRANSPORT MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Chinebuli Uzondu, Samantha Jamson, Greg Marsden
Summary: The study highlights the challenges facing road safety improvement in Nigeria, including poor road design, organization and enforcement of legislation, road user behavior, and inadequate research. Stakeholders generally view public education and information campaigns as highly effective and easy to implement measures.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INJURY CONTROL AND SAFETY PROMOTION
(2022)
Article
Urban Studies
Iain Docherty, John Stone, Carey Curtis, Claus Hedegaard Sorensen, Alexander Paulsson, Crystal Legacy, Greg Marsden
Summary: This paper discusses the profound impact of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) on the 'publicness' of urban transportation and mobility systems, and presents key challenges that policy makers need to address when introducing CAVs.
Article
Geography
Louise Reardon, Gregory Marsden, Morgan Campbell, Sanjay Gupta, Ashish Verma
Summary: This paper empirically analyzes the impact of Narendra Modi's claim of 'more governance, less government' in practice in India through a qualitative case study of the Smart Cities Mission implemented in four cities. The study applies multilevel governance theorizing and reveals centralizing dynamics through the use of 'special purpose vehicles' that bypass local-level institutions. It argues that institutional design can shape multilevel governance dynamics and raises concerns about the long-term risks for democratic development.
TERRITORY POLITICS GOVERNANCE
(2022)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Ioanna Moscholidou, Greg Marsden, Kate Pangbourne
Summary: This paper examines the governance of smart mobility services in the early stages of their introduction in three cities: Seattle, Greater Manchester, and Stockholm. Despite limited steering capacity, cities assume that smart mobility will bring social, environmental, and economic benefits. Although the full potential of smart mobility is yet to be realized, these new services are changing mobility patterns in cities. Clear accountability arrangements between the public and private sectors are necessary for a collaborative governance approach, where shared goals can be identified and maximized.
Article
Business
Siyi Lin, Greg Marsden, Kate Pangbourne, Qiyang Liu
Summary: This article examines the conflict between national imaginaries of market reforms for fast-growing Chinese regions and embedded governance practices in less developed provinces. It also explores the role of institutional change and persistence using path dependence and junctures as an organizing lens. The study finds that political and administrative factors are more influential than economic and technical factors in transport management and institutional processes in China's less developed provinces.
RESEARCH IN TRANSPORTATION BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Remote Sensing
Matt Grote, Aliaksei Pilko, James Scanlan, Tom Cherrett, Janet Dickinson, Angela Smith, Andy Oakey, Greg Marsden
Summary: The UAV industry is expanding rapidly, leading to challenges in sharing airspace with existing crewed aircraft activities. Stakeholder engagement is crucial for the co-development of a shared airspace solution that is widely acceptable. Key issues include the need for a reliable detect-and-avoid system and support from the wider aviation community.
Article
Economics
Greg Marsden, Jillian Anable, Tim Chatterton, Iain Docherty, James Faulconbridge, Lesley Murray, Helen Roby, Jeremy Shires
Article
Ergonomics
James Faulconbridge, Ian Jones, Greg Marsden, Jillian Anable
NEW TECHNOLOGY WORK AND EMPLOYMENT
(2020)
Article
Political Science
Louise Reardon, Greg Marsden
POLICY AND POLITICS
(2020)
