Journal
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
Volume 144, Issue 1, Pages 25-34Publisher
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268815000862
Keywords
African swine fever; domestic pigs; basic reproduction number; modelling; transmission
Funding
- European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) [311 931]
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)
- National Center for Foreign Animal and Zoonotic Disease Defense (FAZD)
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council [BBS/E/I/00001717, BBS/E/I/00001702, BBS/E/I/00001714] Funding Source: researchfish
- BBSRC [BBS/E/I/00001714, BBS/E/I/00001702, BBS/E/I/00001717] Funding Source: UKRI
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African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries. To gain insights into its transmission dynamics, we estimated the pig-to-pig basic reproduction number (R-0) for the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with parameters estimated from transmission experiments. Models showed that R-0 is 2.8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-4.8] within a pen and 1.4 (95% CI 0.6-2.4) between pens. The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection. This study provides quantitative information on transmission parameters for ASFV in domestic pigs, which are required to more effectively assess the potential impact of strategies for the control of between-farm epidemic spread in European countries.
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