Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 10, Issue 11, Pages -Publisher
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/115002
Keywords
agriculture; climate change impacts; error-correction model; integrated assessment; econometric modeling
Funding
- NSF [EAR-1038907, GEO-1240507]
- US Department of Energy Office of Science (BER) [DE-SC005171]
- US Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Division [XA-83600001]
- US Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research [DEFG02-94ER61937]
- Directorate For Geosciences [1240507] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Earth Sciences [1038907] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major crops are slightly positive-annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns-by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B).
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