Article
Environmental Sciences
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, Bablu Sinha
Summary: Variations in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere winter polar stratospheric vortex can influence surface variability in the Atlantic sector. This study explores the interaction between stratospheric vortex variability and ocean circulation on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. The results show that persistent anomalous vortex behavior leads to oscillatory responses in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and AMOC variations on longer timescales can impact the vortex response through the equatorial Pacific and quasi-biennial oscillation. Moreover, the study estimates that around 30% of the recent negative trend in AMOC observations may be attributed to the 8-year SSW hiatus in the 1990s.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
C. D. Roberts, F. Vitart, M. A. Balmaseda
Summary: Coupled Earth system models used for weather and climate predictions are impacted by sea-surface temperature biases related to errors in the Gulf Stream. Correcting these biases in subseasonal forecasts can significantly improve forecast accuracy in the North Atlantic region and atmospheric circulation anomalies, extending improvements into Europe and the northern hemisphere subtropical waveguide. This highlights the potential benefits of higher-resolution ocean models in enhancing forecast skill in initialized coupled forecast systems.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Bernat Jimenez-Esteve, Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Summary: This study analyzes the contribution of different factors to the downward response of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events using an atmospheric model. The findings suggest that anomalies in polar cap geopotential height in the lower stratosphere and zonal wind anomalies over the northeastern Pacific region explain a significant portion of the tropospheric jet response. Local conditions in the North Atlantic also contribute to the surface response.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, Harry Hendon
Summary: This paper introduces the SNAPSI project, which aims to study the impacts of polar stratospheric vortex disturbances on surface predictability through comparing multiple models. By conducting experiments, this project aims to address four main scientific goals, thus improving the understanding of stratospheric variability and tropospheric coupling.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
John R. Albers, Matthew Newman
Summary: Predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and northern annular mode (NAM) on subseasonal timescales is challenging due to fast and unpredictable weather-related processes dominating their variability. A new linear inverse model (LIM) has been developed to identify key dynamical modes contributing to extended-range NAO skill, showing promise for real-world subseasonal NAO predictions.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chuan-Chieh Chang, Zhuo Wang, John Walsh, Patrick J. Stoll
Summary: This study examines the impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on polar low activity in the subarctic North Atlantic. The results show that SSWs can decrease polar low activity over the Labrador Sea, but the impact on the Nordic seas depends on the spatial structure of the SSW event.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Eun-Pa Lim, Harry H. Hendon, Amy H. Butler, David W. J. Thompson, Zachary D. Lawrence, Adam A. Scaife, Theodore G. Shepherd, Inna Polichtchouk, Hisashi Nakamura, Chiaki Kobayashi, Ruth Comer, Lawrence Coy, Andrew Dowdy, Rene D. Garreaud, Paul A. Newman, Guomin Wang
Summary: This study provides an overview of a rare Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warming event in 2019, which led to a significant weakening of the polar vortex and dramatic temperature rise in the Antarctic stratosphere. The impacts of this event resulted in a record-breaking Antarctic warming compared to the previous one in 2002, with the vortex winds and temperatures moving downward to the surface and affecting the southern annular mode. Advanced seasonal forecast systems accurately predicted the vortex weakening and the development of negative SAM as early as late July.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Christopher J. Cardinale, Brian E. J. Rose, Andrea L. Lang, Aaron Donohoe
Summary: The study examines the vertical structure of moist static energy flux into polar regions using NASA-MERRA-2 reanalysis data from 1980 to 2016. It finds a bimodal distribution of climatological flux in the middle to lower troposphere and middle to upper stratosphere, with a near-zero flux at the tropopause. Especially at 70 degrees N, the contribution of F-strat to F-wall is significant during winter, impacting the variability of F-wall.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Haoxiang Wang, Jian Rao, Dong Guo, Yixiong Lu, Yimin Liu
Summary: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) have individual and combined impacts on the northern winter stratospheric polar vortex. The joint effects of ENSO and QBO result in weakened polar vortex in El Nino-easterly QBO and strengthened polar vortex in La Nina-westerly QBO composites. The observed joint ENSO and QBO signals in the Arctic stratosphere are mostly a linearly superposed combination, and the interference of ENSO and QBO's impacts is also observed in the tropospheric circulation and tropical convections.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jinlong Huang, Peter Hitchcock
Summary: Using ERA5 reanalysis data, this study identifies seven easily calculable indices of the strength of the Arctic stratospheric vortex and compares their effects on climatological statistics and meteorological properties of strong and weak vortex events. The study also evaluates different definitions of strong vortex events and presents dynamical benchmarks for assessing their representation in climate models. The results highlight the challenges in defining strong vortex events and emphasize the implications of different choices, providing valuable guidance for future studies.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
N. Koushik, K. Kishore Kumar, M. Pramitha
Summary: Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events in the winter polar stratosphere have significant impacts on the entire atmosphere. By analyzing reanalysis datasets, a previously unexplored connection between the tropical upper stratosphere and the polar vortex is identified. Enhanced planetary wave driving and poleward progression of the zero-wind line are found to be early indicators for the occurrence of SSW events. Statistical analysis shows that nearly 70% of SSW events are preceded by enhanced tropical stratopause wave driving.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Lixin Han, Chunhua Shi, Dong Guo
Summary: The linkage between the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex and the tropospheric polar vortex during the boreal winter is investigated using 50 years of daily ERA5 reanalysis data. Four configurations of strong coupling events are identified, each representing different characteristics of planetary wave vertical propagation and tropospheric circulation anomalies. The findings provide insights into the patterns of temperature anomalies in various regions during different periods of polar vortex strength.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jezabel Curbelo, Gang Chen, Carlos Roberto Mechoso
Summary: This study examines the northern stratosphere in April 2020, where the polar vortex split into two cyclonic vortices during a period with record ozone depletion. The research investigates the dynamical evolution leading to the split, the fate of fluid parcels on the vortex boundary, and the ozone distribution between the vortices resulting from the split. The findings highlight the key role of a flow with a special configuration of barriers to the motion of parcels in causing the split.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Mi-Kyung Sung, Seok-Woo Son, Changhyun Yoo, Jaeyoung Hwang, Soon-Il An
Summary: This study investigates the growth mechanisms and origins of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), finding that it has two distinct origins - abnormal temperature events in East Asia and local atmospheric disturbances at the Asian Pacific jet stream exit. Vorticity flux is the dominant factor in NPO growth, but heat flux also contributes to its amplification through background instability.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Deepashree Dutta, Steven C. Sherwood, Martin Jucker, Alex Sen Gupta, Katrin J. Meissner
Summary: Climate models underestimate Arctic warming in past warm climates like the early Cretaceous and Paleogene periods, indicating missing or poorly represented physical processes. Previous studies suggest that wintertime Arctic polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) could promote Arctic amplification through additional greenhouse warming. This study explores PSC changes under high methane levels, preindustrial carbon dioxide, and polar-amplified surface warming, finding that PSCs could play an important role in Arctic warming in a warmer-than-present-day climate, but only if methane levels were higher than suggested by previous modeling studies for past warm climates.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Natalia Machado Crespo, Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha, Michael Sprenger, Heini Wernli
Summary: This study investigates the influence of upper-level potential vorticity (PV) structures on surface cyclogenesis in central-eastern South America. The analysis reveals regional and seasonal differences in the association between PV streamers and cyclogenesis events. The dynamics of cyclogenesis show variations among Argentina, Uruguay, and SEBrazil, with important aspects such as the baroclinicity of the environment and the location of jet streaks influencing the formation of surface cyclones.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Regula Keller, Jan Rajczak, Jonas Bhend, Christoph Spirig, Stephan Hemri, Mark A. Liniger, Heini Wernli
Summary: Statistical postprocessing is utilized in operational forecasting to correct systematic errors in numerical weather prediction models and generate calibrated local forecasts. This approach is particularly relevant in complex terrain where high-resolution NWP systems struggle to resolve small-scale processes. By combining forecasts from multiple NWP models, statistical postprocessing can significantly improve forecast accuracy.
WEATHER AND FORECASTING
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Lukas Papritz, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli
Summary: Extratropical cyclones play a significant role in precipitation in midlatitudes and have a profound impact on the characteristics of the water cycle. The study found that the sources of precipitation during the cyclone intensification phase mainly originate in the precyclone environment and the cyclone-anticyclone interaction zone, while during the decay phase, more moisture comes from the cyclone's own cold sector.
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Christopher J. Diekmann, Matthias Schneider, Peter Knippertz, Andries J. Vries, Stephan Pfahl, Franziska Aemisegger, Fabienne Dahinden, Benjamin Ertl, Farahnaz Khosrawi, Heini Wernli, Peter Braesicke
Summary: The Lagrangian framework presented in this study is used to identify mechanisms controlling the isotopic composition of mid-tropospheric water vapor during the West African Monsoon in the Sahel region in 2016. By analyzing air mass mixing, convective processes, and microphysical processes along different transport pathways, the study reveals that isotopic changes in water vapor are determined by contributions from different processes such as air mass mixing, condensation during convection, and microphysical processes depleting the vapor beyond the Rayleigh prediction.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Juan J. Gonzalez-Aleman, Christian M. Grams, Blanca Ayarzaguena, Pablo Zurita-Gotor, Daniela I. Domeisen, Inigo Gomara, Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Frederic Vitart
Summary: We investigate the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on the troposphere and their predictability limits through the study of the 2018 SSW event. The study finds that dynamical tropospheric events, consisting of two cyclogenesis events, were the main reasons for the predictability barriers in the prediction of negative NAM/NAO anomalies reaching the surface. This work sheds light on the stratosphere-troposphere coupling and the individual synoptic events that can hinder predictability during the downward impact of SSW events.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Moritz Pickl, Simon T. K. Lang, Martin Leutbecher, Christian M. Grams
Summary: In this study, the effects of the stochastically perturbed parametrisation tendency (SPPT) scheme and initial condition perturbations on rapidly ascending air streams were investigated. The results demonstrate that SPPT systematically increases the frequency of rapidly ascending air streams and affects precipitation rates, while initial condition perturbations have minor effects on rapidly ascending air streams.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Linn Karlsson, Andrea Baccarini, Patrick Duplessis, Darrel Baumgardner, Ian M. Brooks, Rachel Y-W Chang, Lubna Dada, Kaspar R. Dallenbach, Liine Heikkinen, Radovan Krejci, W. Richard Leaitch, Caroline Leck, Daniel G. Partridge, Matthew E. Salter, Heini Wernli, Michael J. Wheeler, Julia Schmale, Paul Zieger
Summary: Detailed knowledge of particles that form clouds in pristine areas like the Arctic is crucial. By conducting in situ cloud and aerosol measurements in the central Arctic Ocean, combined with air parcel source analysis, this study provides experimental evidence that Aitken mode particles significantly contribute to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), especially after the freeze-up of sea ice. These observations offer valuable insights into the origin and properties of CCN in the pristine central Arctic Ocean.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Grace C. E. Porter, Michael P. Adams, Ian M. Brooks, Luisa Ickes, Linn Karlsson, Caroline Leck, Matthew E. Salter, Julia Schmale, Karolina Siegel, Sebastien N. F. Sikora, Mark D. Tarn, Jutta Vullers, Heini Wernli, Paul Zieger, Julika Zinke, Benjamin J. Murray
Summary: The study found that during the summer of 2018, high concentrations of biological INPs were sporadically present at the North Pole. These concentrations sometimes reached levels similar to those recorded in mid-latitude locations strongly impacted by highly active biological INPs, in contrast to the Southern Ocean. Furthermore, using a balloon borne sampler, the study demonstrated that INP concentrations differed between the surface and higher in the boundary layer where clouds form. These findings suggest that Arctic climate is sensitive to transport from regions that are already experiencing climate change.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Christopher J. White, Daniela I. Domeisen, Nachiketa Acharya, Elijah A. Adefisan, Michael L. Anderson, Stella Aura, Ahmed A. Balogun, Douglas Bertram, Sonia Bluhm, David J. Brayshaw, Jethro Browell, Dominik Bueler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Xandre Chourio, Isadora Christel, Caio A. S. Coelho, Michael J. DeFlorio, Luca Delle Monache, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Ana Maria Garcia-Solorzano, Peter B. Gibson, Lisa Goddard, Carmen Gonzalez Romero, Richard J. Graham, Robert M. Graham, Christian M. Grams, Alan Halford, W. T. Katty Huang, Kjeld Jensen, Mary Kilavi, Kamoru A. Lawal, Robert W. Lee, David MacLeod, Andrea Manrique-Sunen, Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, Carolyn J. Maxwell, William J. Merryfield, Angel G. Munoz, Eniola Olaniyan, George Otieno, John A. Oyedepo, Lluis Palma, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Diego Pons, F. Martin Ralph, Dirceu S. Reis, Tomas A. Remenyi, James S. Risbey, Donald J. C. Robertson, Andrew W. Robertson, Stefan Smith, Albert Soret, Ting Sun, Martin C. Todd, Carly R. Tozer, Francisco C. Vasconcelos, Ilaria Vigo, Duane E. Waliser, Fredrik Wetterhall, Robert G. Wilson
Summary: The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale is at the forefront of forecasting science, providing enhanced application-focused capabilities. However, a lack of evidence and awareness limits the wider uptake of S2S forecasts. This study summarizes relevant applications of S2S forecasts and highlights the challenges of incorporating them into decision-making operations.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Marisol Osman, Remo Beerli, Dominik Bueeler, Christian M. M. Grams
Summary: This study evaluates the prediction skill of sub-seasonal forecast models for seven year-round weather regimes in the Atlantic-European region. The models from three prediction centers are tested against weather regimes obtained from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Results show that predicting weather regimes outperforms raw geopotential height and Greenland blocking has the highest skill, while European and Scandinavian blocking have the lowest skill. The study also highlights the challenges in forecasting no regime situations and the improvements in model versions.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, Erich M. M. Fischer, Reto Knutti, Sarah E. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Christoph Schar, Sonia I. I. Seneviratne, Antje Weisheimer, Heini Wernli
Summary: Heatwaves pose a major threat to human health and ecosystems, and predicting them is crucial for preparedness. Current capabilities allow for skillful prediction of heatwaves on daily to weekly timescales, but become challenging beyond a few weeks. However, tendencies for above-average temperatures can still be estimated. Future projections suggest that heatwaves will become more frequent, persistent, and intense worldwide, with amplified trends in mid-latitudes due to soil drying. There will also be an increased occurrence of humid heatwaves, particularly in southern Asia. Improving heatwave prediction and projection requires a better understanding of relevant drivers and their model representation.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli
Summary: The study investigates the formation of tropical ice clouds related to deep convection in the West African monsoon using stable water isotopes as tracers. The findings demonstrate that isotopes can be useful in understanding the processes involved in the formation of ice clouds and their impact on climate.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jan Clemens, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, Heini Wernli
Summary: Air mass transport within the Asian monsoon circulation in summer plays a significant role in anthropogenic pollution. This study investigates the transport and chemical evolution of air masses from the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) into the extratropical lower stratosphere. The results show evidence of frequent transport from the monsoon anticyclone to midlatitudes over the North Pacific, and the chemical composition of these air masses gradually changes during transport.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, Stephan Pfahl
Summary: This study demonstrates that the adoption of a Lagrangian isotope perspective enhances our understanding of air mass transport and mixing, and provides a sound interpretation of the free-tropospheric variability of specific humidity and isotope composition on timescales of hours to days in contrasting atmospheric conditions over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Maxi Boettcher, Andreas Schafler, Michael Sprenger, Harald Sodemann, Stefan Kaufmann, Christiane Voigt, Hans Schlager, Donato Summa, Paolo Di Girolamo, Daniele Nerini, Urs Germann, Heini Wernli
Summary: This study focuses on the characteristics of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) in the ascent path from Europe to the Baltic Sea, utilizing aircraft, lidar, and radar observations. It reveals WCB branches sourced from both the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, passing through the Alps and potentially leading to enhanced precipitation.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2021)