Article
Environmental Sciences
Tao Jin, Xiewen Hu, Bo Liu, Chuanjie Xi, Kun He, Xichao Cao, Gang Luo, Mei Han, Guotao Ma, Ying Yang, Yan Wang
Summary: This study improves the predictive model of post-fire debris flow (PFDF) by introducing the temporal factor. The susceptibility of PFDF was predicted for different periods after the wildfires. The results show that the susceptibility significantly reduces over time.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Yizhou Zhuang, Rong Fu, Benjamin D. Santer, Robert E. Dickinson, Alex Hall
Summary: Recent studies have shown that the increase in wildfire activity in the western United States in recent years is likely attributed to both natural weather pattern changes and anthropogenic warming, with approximately 68% of the observed trend in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) being due to human influence. Climate models indicate that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction (88%) of the VPD trend, providing a lower and upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on VPD trends in the region. In August 2020, during the occurrence of the August Complex Gigafire, it is estimated that anthropogenic warming explained 50% of the exceptionally high VPD anomalies.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Geological
Yan Wang, Xiewen Hu, Lijun Wu, Guotao Ma, Ying Yang, Tao Jing
Summary: Post-fire debris flows have unique characteristics and understanding the long-term debris-flow risk in burned areas is crucial. This study analyzed seven debris flow events over six post-fire years in Sichuan province, China. The results showed an increase in frequency and rainfall intensity of debris flow events over time, as well as an increase in particle size of debris-flow deposition. These findings provide a scientific basis for long-term debris-flow risk evaluation and protection program design.
Article
Geography, Physical
Sara Wall, Brendan P. Murphy, Patrick Belmont, Larissa Yocom
Summary: This study aims to address two key limitations in predicting post-fire debris flows: accurate volume prediction without triggering storm rainfall intensities and understanding controls on grain sizes. The researchers compiled and analyzed a dataset of depositional volumes and grain size distributions for 59 post-fire debris flows and developed a new prediction model. The study found that topography, burn severity, and pre-fire soil organic matter percentage were important variables in predicting debris flow volumes. The study also constructed models to predict different grain sizes produced by post-fire debris flows. The results enhance our ability to predict the transportation of post-fire sediment pulses through watersheds.
EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS
(2023)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Chang Gyo Jung, Alisa R. Keyser, Cecile C. Remy, Daniel Krofcheck, Craig D. Allen, Matthew D. Hurteau
Summary: The western United States is projected to experience more frequent and severe wildfires in the future due to drier and hotter climate conditions. This study incorporated seedling survival data and topographic information into an ecosystem model to better predict post-fire regeneration events. The findings indicate that current ecosystem models may overestimate post-fire regeneration in the southwest United States and need refinement to better account for the range of factors that influence tree seedling establishment.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Danielle Touma, Samantha Stevenson, Daniel L. Swain, Deepti Singh, Dmitri A. Kalashnikov, Xingying Huang
Summary: This study uses climate models to project that in the western United States, there will be an increase in the frequency of extreme fire weather events followed by extreme rainfall events in the future, leading to significantly higher post-fire hydrologic risks.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
K. D. Morell, P. Alessio, T. Dunne, E. Keller
Summary: This study utilized lidar differencing and field observations to investigate sediment mobilization from mountain canyons by post-wildfire debris flows in Montecito, CA, USA in 2018. The research found that the volumes of debris flows in extreme events are ultimately controlled by the coarse sediment reservoir available for scour, emphasizing the importance of estimating stored sediment volumes in developing debris-flow hazard assessments.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Nina S. Oakley
Summary: Climate change may increase the frequency of post-wildfire floods and debris flows, posing a greater threat to life, property, and infrastructure in vulnerable areas. Decision-makers require resources to plan for these evolving hazards. While a novel framework provides support for this need, simulations of climate past and future as well as increased monitoring efforts are necessary to effectively address post-fire hydrologic risks in a warming climate.
Article
Engineering, Geological
David Bernard, Emily Trousil, Paul Santi
Summary: Prediction of possible inundation areas is critical for debris-flow hazard management and was achieved in this research by developing runout parameters specific to post-wildfire debris flows. Using data from flows triggered by a storm in 2003, equations were modified to best estimate post-wildfire data, providing values within certain prediction intervals. These values are expected to apply to post-wildfire debris flows in Southern California mountain ranges.
ENGINEERING GEOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Anna Serra-Llobet, John Radke, G. Mathias Kondolf, Larry Gurrola, J. David Rogers, Sarah Lindbergh, Johnny Douvinet
Summary: Historical flood information is not commonly used in the US for land use planning decisions. However, this study developed an approach that combines historical flood records, human development records, and geomorphological understanding to analyze flood exposure and risk as dynamic processes influenced by physical and human factors. The results show the common occurrence of floods and debris flows in Montecito, California, and the increased development in hazard zones despite policies discouraging it. Therefore, it is necessary to re-evaluate conventional flood management methods and better understand flood exposure risk to reduce vulnerability.
FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Chad K. Neptune, Jerome Degraff, Christopher J. Pluhar, Jeremy T. Lancaster, Dennis M. Staley
Summary: In the study areas impacted by the Ferguson Fire and the Briceburg Fire, 26 debris flows were observed in response to 60 rainstorms, with empirically derived rainfall intensity-duration thresholds established. The study suggests the need for model refinement or development of a regionally specific model to provide more accurate information for emergency management decisions, potentially reducing unnecessary impacts to the public.
ENVIRONMENTAL & ENGINEERING GEOSCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Beverly E. Law, Logan T. Berner, Polly C. Buotte, David J. Mildrexler, William J. Ripple
Summary: Strategic forest reserves based on biodiversity and carbon storage can help protect habitat, drinking water, and carbon stocks in the western US. An assessment of current forest preservation shows the need for an additional 11.1% of land to achieve the 30% preservation target by 2030.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yongchao Li, Jianping Chen, Chun Tan, Yang Li, Feifan Gu, Yiwei Zhang, Qaiser Mehmood
Summary: The study investigated 79 gullies in Pinggu District, Beijing, and classified them into debris flow and non-debris flow gullies. Different methods were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flows, with the LR method showing the best results. The evaluation indicated a higher likelihood of debris flows occurring in the southeast part of Pinggu District.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
John T. Abatzoglou, Caroline S. Juang, A. Park Williams, Crystal A. Kolden, Anthony LeRoy Westerling
Summary: The research shows a strong correlation between fire danger days in western US forests and strain on national fire suppression resources, with a projected doubling of synchronous fire danger days in the coming decades.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jatan Buch, A. Park Williams, Caroline S. Juang, Winslow D. Hansen, Pierre Gentine
Summary: The annual area burned due to wildfires in the western United States (WUS) increased by more than 300% between 1984 and 2020. A novel stochastic machine learning (SML) framework called SMLFire1.0 is introduced to model observed fire frequencies and sizes in 12 km x 12 km grids across the WUS. The model accurately matches the observed fire frequencies and sizes, exhibiting strong correlations with the observations in different ecoregions.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2023)
