Swimming championship finalist positions on success in international swimming competitions

The primary goal was to determine whether the achievement of finalist positions in the Junior Championship was associated with the achievement of success in the International Swimming Federation (FINA) World Championship (WC). Secondary goals included analyzing the effect of various factors (gender, age, country, etc) on swimmers' performances. Data were obtained from FINA information about the finalists from 2007 to 2015 WCs and finalists from 2006 to 2013 Junior-WCs (2400 entries). Final filtered database just included swimmers who participated in both junior and senior WCs (719 entries). A univariate general linear model (GLM) was used to examine the association between time; origin (swimmer who participated in Junior WC or not); maintenance years (number of years achieving finalist positions); country; and age, adjusting for year of competition. An ordinal logistic regression (OLR) model was used to identify predictors of achieving the top positions. The origin variable was not significant in either the GLM or the OLR. The only significant variables in the GLM were maintenance years (F-4,F-706 = 7.689; p <.05) and year of competition (F-4,F-706 = 23.239; p <.05). The OLR revealed a strong association (p <.001) between the position variable and maintenance years, getting better positions as you get more WCs (odds = 1.85). In conclusion, no evidence was obtained to conclude finalist position in Junior WC have influence in achieve success in FINA WC. Maintenance years in WCs have a positive impact to achieve better positions.