Article
Environmental Sciences
William Wint, Peter Jones, Moritz Kraemer, Neil Alexander, Francis Schaffner
Summary: This study uses historical records and climatic data to construct historical and present distribution models of the yellow fever mosquito in southern Europe, revealing significant changes in its distribution over the past 100 years. The predicted future distribution based on historical models contradicts the predictions based on present day distributions.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Joel J. Brown, Mercedes Pascual, Michael C. Wimberly, Leah R. Johnson, Courtney C. Murdock
Summary: This article explores the thermal effects of humidity on the transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens, presenting a conceptual model for how temperature and humidity interact to shape the temperature range in which mosquitoes persist and achieve high transmission potential. The article highlights how neglecting these interactions hinders efforts to predict transmission dynamics and respond to mosquito-borne infections.
Article
Biology
Asena Goren, Hildegunn Viljugrein, Inger Maren Rivrud, Solveig Jore, Haakon Bakka, Yngvild Vindenes, Atle Mysterud
Summary: Climate change has caused significant changes in seasonal weather patterns and phenology in various species. However, there is limited empirical research on the impact of these changes on the emergence and seasonal dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Lyme borreliosis, the most common vector-borne disease in the northern hemisphere, has been increasing in incidence and geographical distribution. An analysis of long-term surveillance data from Norway shows a marked change in the timing of Lyme borreliosis cases, with the peak now occurring six weeks earlier than 25 years ago. This study highlights the potential for climate change to shape the seasonal dynamics of vector-borne diseases.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Biology
Yurong Wu, Cunrui Huang
Summary: This study summarizes the association between climate conditions and vector-borne diseases in China and provides recommendations for future research. Temperature, rainfall, and humidity are the main parameters contributing to the transmission of vector-borne diseases, but there are vast differences in the association between weather conditions and vector-borne diseases in China. The findings are important for a multi-sectorial response to climate-sensitive diseases in China.
Article
Biophysics
Jennifer M. Fitchett, Deryn-Anne Swatton
Summary: Although only a small proportion of South Africa is classified as high risk for malaria, climate change poses a growing threat to the country's efforts in preventing malaria outbreaks. This pilot study focuses on South Africans who reside outside the malaria area but travel to high-risk regions for vacation. The findings reveal that while these individuals claim to be aware of malaria risks, their understanding of the current and future boundaries is lacking. Additionally, many of them do not take appropriate precautions when traveling to malaria areas, which may be influenced by information from friends and family rather than medical advice.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Samuel G. Woodman, Sacha Khoury, Ronald E. Fournier, Erik J. S. Emilson, John M. Gunn, James A. Rusak, Andrew J. Tanentzap
Summary: Defoliating insects disrupt boreal catchments by redistributing carbon and nitrogen from forests to lakes, altering biogeochemical cycles significantly. DOC reductions and DIN increases in lake waters due to insect outbreaks exceed between-year trends, indicating the importance of these outbreaks in driving biogeochemical cycles in forest catchments.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2021)
Article
Immunology
Jung Seok Lee, Suh Yong Chung
Summary: This study investigates the impact of climate and environmental changes on tick-borne infections and identifies potential high-risk areas in South Korea. They found a correlation between climate change and the surge of tick-borne infections and suggest using climate risk factors to predict the spread of the infections.
JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2023)
Article
Ecology
Moh A. Alkhamis, Nicholas M. Fountain-Jones, Cecilia Aguilar-Vega, Jose M. Sanchez-Vizcaino
Summary: The study utilized a machine learning model and 23 environmental features to analyze 24,245 outbreaks reported in 25 European countries between 2000 and 2019. Results showed high predictive accuracy for all BTV serotypes, with strong nonlinear relationships between BTV outbreak risk and environmental and host features. Different serotypes had unique outbreak risk profiles and specific interactive effects between environmental and host characteristics.
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Sandra Oliveira, Jorge Rocha, Carla A. Sousa, Cesar Capinha
Summary: The research shows that the Asian tiger mosquito has wide suitable areas across Europe and the need to effectively consider climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Food Science & Technology
Akshay Bisht, Manoj P. Kamble, Pritesh Choudhary, Kartikey Chaturvedi, Gautam Kohli, Vijay K. Juneja, Shalini Sehgal, Neetu Kumra Taneja
Summary: Understanding the distribution of food-borne outbreaks and their implicated food-vehicles is crucial for mitigating the risk of food-borne diseases. Data analysis from the study revealed weak correlations between climatic factors and outbreaks, with ARIMA models showing poor performance. The GAM model predicted 356 outbreaks for the year 2020.
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
DeAnna J. Friedman-Klabanoff, Megan Birkhold, Mara T. Short, Timothy R. Wilson, Claudio R. Meneses, Joshua R. Lacsina, Fabiano Oliveira, Shaden Kamhawi, Jesus G. Valenzuela, Sally Hunsberger, Allyson Mateja, Gregory Stoloff, Olga Pleguezuelos, Matthew J. Memoli, Matthew B. Laurens
Summary: This study evaluated the immunogenicity and safety of a mosquito salivary peptide vaccine in healthy adults. The results showed that the vaccine had a favorable safety profile and induced robust immune responses. Further research will determine if the vaccine translates into clinical efficacy against mosquito-borne diseases.
Article
Parasitology
Mohammed Mudassar Chanda, Awadhesh Prajapati, Revanaiah Yogisharadhya, L. Umesh, Manjunath S. Palegar, Divakar Hemadri, Bibek Ranjan Shome, Sathish Bhadravati Shivachandra
Summary: In this study, a predictive risk map for anthrax outbreaks in Karnataka, India was developed using georeferenced outbreak locations and Fourier Processed remotely sensed variables. Elevation was identified as the top predictor variable in developing the risk map. The validated risk map can be utilized for planning vaccination strategies and surveillance in high-risk areas.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Mark R. Payne, Manja Kudahl, Georg H. Engelhard, Myron A. Peck, John K. Pinnegar
Summary: The majority of the global human population resides in coastal regions, making climate risk analysis crucial for supporting adaptation. A study on the European fisheries sector identified the most at-risk fishing fleets and coastal regions. Different countries face diverse challenges posed by climate change, thus requiring tailored climate adaptation measures.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Agronomy
Wei Wang, Qing Zhu, Geng He, Xiuyu Liu, Wanting Peng, Yongli Cai
Summary: Pine wilt disease (PWD) poses a significant threat to forests globally, and the recent outbreaks in China highlight the importance of understanding its current and future distribution. This study used a principal components analysis and MaxEnt model to predict the potential risk areas and carbon stock losses caused by PWD under different climate change scenarios. The results show dramatic shifts in both the distribution of PWD and the carbon stock losses, providing valuable insights for pest control and forest management.
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Juha Aalto, Pekka Niittynen, Henri Riihimaki, Miska Luoto
Summary: Research shows that cryogenic land surface processes play a crucial role in constraining above-ground biomass in tundra ecosystems, leading to an average biomass reduction of 30% and a more significant reduction in snowbed environments. These effects have implications for feedback between the biosphere and atmosphere, ecosystem functioning, and biodiversity in the context of climate warming.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Michael J. Tildesley, Anna Vassall, Steven Riley, Mark Jit, Frank Sandmann, Edward M. Hill, Robin N. Thompson, Benjamin D. Atkins, John Edmunds, Louise Dyson, Matt J. Keeling
Summary: This study uses an existing SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to assess the health and economic implications of different strengths of control measures and proposes optimal approaches to non-pharmaceutical intervention stringency in the UK, taking into account the role of vaccination in reducing the need for future physical distancing measures.
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Stacey Orangi, John Ojal, Samuel P. C. Brand, Cameline Orlendo, Angela Kairu, Rabia Aziza, Morris Ogero, Ambrose Agweyu, George M. Warimwe, Sophie Uyoga, Edward Otieno, Lynette Ochola-Oyier, Charles N. Agoti, Kadondi Kasera, Patrick Amoth, Mercy Mwangangi, Rashid Aman, Wangari Ng'ang'a, Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa, J. Anthony G. Scott, Philip Bejon, Matt J. Keeling, Stefan Flasche, D. James Nokes, Edwine Barasa
Summary: This study conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya. The findings showed that a slow roll-out with 30% coverage was effective in reducing deaths and cost-saving, while increasing coverage to 50% and 70% had limited effectiveness and was not cost-effective. Therefore, vaccinating young adults may no longer be cost-effective in settings where prior exposure has provided partial protection.
Article
Biology
Jake Carson, Alice Ledda, Luca Ferretti, Matt Keeling, Xavier Didelot
Summary: The bounded coalescent model, which represents the origin of individuals from a common ancestor after a certain date, has important applications in various fields. This study introduces a new algorithm for simulating this model directly, demonstrating its computational efficiency compared to rejection sampling. The study also presents a method for calculating the probability of the last common ancestor occurring after a given date, which is crucial for analyzing phylogenetic data under the bounded coalescent model.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
Sam Moore, Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J. Tildesley, Matt J. Keeling
Summary: The study found that greater vaccine sharing globally could have reduced the global burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated mortality. Any increase in infections in previously vaccine-rich countries could have been mitigated by reducing the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Distributing vaccines based on wealth rather than need may be detrimental to everyone.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Matt J. Keeling, Louise Dyson, Michael J. Tildesley, Edward M. Hill, Samuel Moore
Summary: The control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic in England has relied on a combination of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions. A Roadmap was developed to gradually relax restrictions throughout 2021, guided by mathematical modeling. Retrospective assessment of model predictions revealed that medium-term hospital admission trends were accurately estimated, with uncertainties arising from vaccine efficacy against variants and assumptions about human behavior.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Biochemical Research Methods
Joe Hilton, Heather Riley, Lorenzo Pellis, Rabia Aziza, Samuel P. C. Brand, Ivy K. Kombe, John Ojal, Andrea Parisi, Matt J. Keeling, D. James Nokes, Robert Manson-Sawko, Thomas House
Summary: This article introduces a modeling framework for epidemic spread that includes age structure and household structure, and provides an open-source implementation in Python. Through four policy case studies, the flexibility and interpretability of the model are demonstrated.
PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Biology
Matt J. Keeling
Summary: One of the key features of any infectious disease is whether infection generates long-lasting immunity or whether repeated reinfection is common. Here we investigate reported SARS-CoV-2 cases in England and consider the temporal distribution of first and second reports of infection. We conclude that there is considerable heterogeneity in the risk of reporting reinfection, and the high levels of reinfection in the Omicron wave indicate that reinfection events will dominate future COVID-19 dynamics.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Infectious Diseases
Ken T. D. Eames, Maria L. Tang, Edward M. Hill, Michael J. Tildesley, Jonathan M. Read, Matt J. Keeling, Julia R. Gog
Summary: Universities are potential hotspots for the spread of infectious respiratory illnesses due to the close interaction among students from different backgrounds. This study provides previously unpublished data on coughs, colds, and influenza-like symptoms collected from a university survey in Cambridge, UK during the winter of 2007-2008. The findings reveal differences in symptom onset among undergraduates and postgraduates, as well as between subjects and accommodation types. Despite limitations, this dataset contributes to the understanding of transmission dynamics in universities during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Correction
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
Sam Moore, Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J. Tildesley, Matt J. Keeling
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Matt J. Keeling, Samuel Moore, Bridget S. Penman, Edward M. Hill
Summary: In late 2020, the JCVI made important recommendations for the initial roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine, targeting older and vulnerable people and increasing the interval between doses. A mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England showed that targeting the most vulnerable had the biggest impact and the 12-week delay significantly reduced hospital admissions and deaths.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Statistics & Probability
Laura M. Guzman-Rincon, Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J. Tildesley, Matt J. Keeling
Summary: Quantitative assessments and short-term projections of an epidemic play an essential role in public health by evaluating control measures. This study proposes a method to rapidly and robustly measure the exponential growth rate by fitting a Gaussian process to epidemiological data. It also demonstrates the improved accuracy by considering the total number of tests in the heterogeneous testing effort. Applied to SARS-CoV-2 cases and testing in England, the study reveals long-term national growth patterns, regional growth, and spatial heterogeneity.
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS
(2023)
Review
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Hannah Littlecott, Clare Herd, John O'Rourke, Lina Toncon Chaparro, Matt Keeling, G. James Rubin, Elizabeth Fearon
Summary: We conducted a systematic literature review to evaluate the effectiveness of general population testing, contact tracing, case isolation, and contact quarantine interventions for reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The review included 25 studies that showed the potential of testing, tracing, and isolation in reducing transmission, but quantitative conclusions on the impact in different epidemic contexts were limited.
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Samuel P. C. Brand, Massimo Cavallaro, Fergus Cumming, Charlie Turner, Isaac Florence, Paula Blomquist, Joe Hilton, Laura M. Guzman-Rincon, Thomas House, D. James Nokes, Matt J. Keeling
Summary: An outbreak of Mpox in the UK began in May 2022 and peaked in July. The decline in cases was likely due to behavioural changes among high-risk populations, while vaccination could prevent a rebound. The spread of Mpox virus was rapid among GBMSM communities in high-income countries, and behavioural change and Vaccinia-based vaccination were effective interventions. The decline in cases was a result of decreased transmission rate and infection-induced immunity among high-risk individuals, and targeted vaccination prevented a rebound in cases due to behaviour reversion.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
David Helekal, Matt Keeling, Yonatan H. Grad, Xavier Didelot
Summary: Increasing levels of antibiotic resistance pose a major threat to public health. Understanding the costs and benefits of resistance can lead to better use of antibiotics and prevent the spread of resistance.
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
(2023)