Are the World Junior Championship Finalists for Middle- and Long-Distance Events Currently Competing at International Level?

Purpose: To analyze how many finalists of the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) World Junior Championships (WJCs) in the middle- and long-distance track events had dropped out from high-level competitions. Methods: Starting from 2002, the 8 male and the 8 female finalists in the middle- and long-distance events of 6 editions of the WJC were followed until 2015 to evaluate how many missed the IAAF rankings for 2 consecutive years starting from the year after WJC participation. For those still competing at elite level, their careers were monitored. Results: In 2015, 61% of the 2002, 54.8% of the 2004, 48.3% of the 2006, 37.5% of the 2008, 26.2% of the 2010, and 29% of the 2012 WJC finalists were not present in the IAAF rankings. Of the 368 athletes considered, 75 (20.4%) were able to achieve the IAAF top 10 in 2.4 +/- 2.2 y. There is evidence of relationships between dropout and gender (P =.040), WJC edition (P =.000), and nationality (P =.010) and between the possibility to achieve the IAAF top 10 and dropout (P =.000), continent (P =.001), relative age effect (P =.000), and quartile of birth (P =.050). Conclusions: Even if 23 of the finalists won a medal at the Olympic Games or at the World Championships, it is still not clear if participation at the WJC is a prerequisite to success at a senior level.