Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Yi Liu, Wenju Cai, Xiaopei Lin, Ziguang Li, Ying Zhang
Summary: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a consequential climate phenomenon affecting global extreme weather events often with largescale socioeconomic impacts. Research has found that the economic damage from El Nino is far greater than the benefits from La Nina, and under greenhouse warming, increased ENSO variability leads to increased economic loss.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Minghong Liu, Hong-Li Ren, Run Wang, Jieru Ma, Xin Mao
Summary: This study investigates the distinct impacts of Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer precipitation. The results show that EP El Nino and CP La Nina have opposite effects on summer precipitation in the southwestern TP, with significant decreases and increases respectively, while CP El Nino causes significant decreases in central-eastern TP. This study may deepen our understanding of ENSO impacts on TP summer precipitation and have implications for regional climate predictions.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jing Li, Eric Garshick, Shaodan Huang, Petros Koutrakis
Summary: This study investigates the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on surface dust levels in different regions. Results show that dust concentrations are positively related with SOI, with stronger associations in North Africa and the Middle East. La Nina episodes are associated with increased dust concentrations, while El Nino events are associated with decreased dust concentrations in regions with high dust pollution.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Anbao Zhu, Haiming Xu, Jiechun Deng, Jing Ma, Shuhui Li
Summary: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation has a significant impact on spring aerosols over mainland South East Asia, southern China, and the ocean south of Japan. The ENSO affects aerosols in East Asia mainly through modulation of upstream aerosol generation and transport processes. The physical mechanism involves changes in air moisture and precipitation leading to variations in biomass burning activities and carbonaceous aerosol emissions.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Nan Chen, Xianghui Fang
Summary: This paper develops a simple multiscale intermediate coupled stochastic model to capture the diversity and complexity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and successfully reproduces the spatiotemporal dynamical evolution of different types of ENSO events.
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yu Zhang, Shi-Yun Yu, Dillon J. Amaya, Yu Kosaka, Malte F. Stuecker, Jun-Chao Yang, Xiaopei Lin, Lei Fan
Summary: The study reveals the connection between tropical Pacific-forced Aleutian low variability and the Pacific Meridional Mode, while tropical Pacific-forced North Pacific Oscillation does not significantly influence PMM variability. This finding provides important insights for future research on subtropical-tropical interactions.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Omid Alizadeh
Summary: Research shows that the amplitude and duration of El Nino and La Nina events have not significantly changed over the past six decades. However, the amplitude variability of El Nino events is higher than that of La Nina events, while the duration variability is lower.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Fan Jia, Wenju Cai, Bolan Gan, Lixin Wu, Emanuele Di Lorenzo
Summary: Research suggests that under high-emissions warming scenarios, the North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) strengthens its impact on El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), leading to increased frequency of extreme ENSO events and improved predictability.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Madeline McKenna, Christina Karamperidou
Summary: This study examines the relationship between Northern Hemisphere blocking events and the Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) flavors of El Nino. The results show that these two El Nino flavors have different impacts on atmospheric circulation, affecting the strength and placement of the upper-level jet stream, and thus the frequency and duration of blocking events. Therefore, future investigations of blocking and ENSO-related variability should consider the different El Nino flavors.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Cong Guan, Feng Tian, Michael J. McPhaden, Shijian Hu, Fan Wang
Summary: Salinity anomalies in the central Pacific induce the strongest surface warming during both types of El Nino, tapering off to the east and west. The distinct sea surface salinity zonal structures between the two El Ninos amplify their difference in sea surface temperature magnitude by about 10%. Salinity effects on vertical mixing and entrainment account for the different eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Nino responses.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
J. Saha, C. Price, T. Plotnik, A. Guha
Summary: This study reveals a strong connection between upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and uncovers the physical mechanism behind this connection through analyzing 41 years of data.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Babalwa Gqomfa, Thabang Maphanga, Takalani Terry Phungela, Benett Siyabonga Madonsela, Karabo Malakane, Stanley Lekata
Summary: This study investigates how ENSO affects water quality by examining COD, SS, and Escherichia coli levels along the Crocodile River. Water samples were collected from three strategic locations on the river between 2016 and 2021 and analyzed in an accredited laboratory using Python (version 3.8), Spyder, and Microsoft Excel 2019. The highest COD concentration (800 mg/L) was observed at the White River site during El Nino, followed by 600 mg/L during the normal period, and 240 mg/L during La Nina. In 2019, E. coli levels were consistently at 60 cfu/100 mL during La Nina and the normal period, while no E. coli levels were detected in 2021 during La Nina, El Nino, and the normal periods. Suspended solids were more prevalent in the White River (upstream) during the El Nino period. These findings demonstrate the ability to evaluate local impacts associated with large-scale climate variability.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Fei-Fei Jin
Summary: The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, characterized by large-scale sea surface temperature anomalies, is a major driver of global climate patterns and weather activities. ENSO exhibits remarkable spatiotemporal pattern diversity and has significant impacts on the environment, ecology, economy, and society. While the basic dynamics of ENSO are well understood, the mechanisms explaining the key features of ENSO associated with Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific events remain to be better understood.
FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Saureesh Das, Rashmi Bhardwaj, Varsha Duhoon
Summary: This paper investigates the chaotic dynamics in a recharge-discharge oscillator model of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The model equations are transformed to a van der Pol-Duffing oscillator model with an 11-year solar forcing. The numerical simulation shows that the oscillator model transitions to chaos as the forcing is increased. Multiple transitions between regular and chaotic states are observed in the bifurcation plot with varying amplitude of periodic forcing (F), and the regular and chaotic states are verified using Lyapunov exponent and recurrence quantification analysis.
EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL-SPECIAL TOPICS
(2023)
Article
Agronomy
Camilo Barrios-Perez, Kensuke Okada, Gabriel Garces Varon, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Maria Camila Rebolledo, Steven D. Prager
Summary: The study assessed the impact of ENSO on the spatio-temporal variability of agro-climatic conditions and rice yield in central Colombia. It found that during positive ENSO phases, rice irrigation water requirements increased, while they decreased during negative phases, with the number of heat nights being the most important agro-climatic factor causing yield losses during ENSO events.
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sarah C. Smith, David Ubilav
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
(2017)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jesse B. Tack, David Ubilava
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
David Ubilava
EUROPEAN REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
(2014)
Article
Environmental Sciences
David Ubilava, Maryam Abdolrahimi
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2019)
Article
Economics
Kadir Atalay, Rebecca Edwards, Stefanie Schurer, David Ubilava
Summary: Global unemployment has increased during the pandemic, but a study in Australia found no average relationship between unemployment and mortality rates. It did observe beneficial health effects for young men during economic downturns.
Article
Economics
Justin Hastings, Sarah G. Phillips, David Ubilava, Andrey Vasnev
Summary: The integration of agricultural markets in conflict-affected states varies depending on the type of commodity. Conflict tends to hinder the transmission of prices for imported cereal grains like rice, while locally produced commodities like maize and sorghum are not affected. The presence of informal institutions may contribute to the spatial integration of cereal markets in Somalia, bridging the gaps caused by conflict, distance, and internal political fragmentation.
JOURNAL OF AFRICAN ECONOMIES
(2022)
Article
Economics
Simon D. Angus, Kadir Atalay, Jonathan Newton, David Ubilava
Summary: The study on the geographical diversity of editors at prestigious economics journals reveals that power is concentrated in five geographical hubs, with most editorial teams being less geographically diverse and more North American than the authors they publish.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION
(2021)
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
David Ubilava
Summary: This study examines the accuracy of improved STAR models in commodity price forecasting and finds that basic autoregressive models outperform STAR models in multistep forecasts, demonstrating superior performance.
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
(2022)
Review
Agricultural Economics & Policy
Shon Ferguson, David Ubilava
Summary: The war in the breadbasket of Europe, which was triggered by a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, resulted in a surge in major cereal prices. The subsequent events have tested the resilience of global commodity markets and the skills of policymakers. While the current crisis is unique, disruptions in global commodity markets have occurred before, with historical evidence and examples. This study provides perspective on the current crisis and its consequences by presenting anecdotal and empirical evidence from the past, with a specific focus on low- and middle-income countries.
AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS
(2022)
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
David Ubilava, Justin Hastings, Kadir Atalay
Summary: Rising cereal grain prices can lead to social unrest and conflict, particularly in rural areas. Predators are more likely to engage in violent acts when there are spoils to be appropriated, which often aligns with the harvest season in agrarian societies. By analyzing incidents of violence in Africa from 1997 to 2020, it was found that violence by militias increases during the harvest season when there is a significant increase in the price of the major cereal grain. This research contributes to understanding the economic causes of conflict in predominantly agrarian societies.
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
(2023)
Article
Economics
David Ubilava, Nelson B. Villoria, Jesse B. Tack
Article
Economics
David Ubilava
MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS
(2019)
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
David Ubilava
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
(2018)
Article
Development Studies
David Ubilava
