Changes in spring arrival dates and temperature sensitivity of migratory birds over two centuries

Long-term phenological data have been crucial at documenting the effects of climate change in organisms. However, in most animal taxa, time series length seldom exceeds 35 years. Therefore, we have limited evidence on animal responses to climate prior to the recent warm period. To fill in this gap, we present time series of mean first arrival dates to Central Europe for 13 bird species spanning 183 years (1828-2010). We found a uniform trend of arrival dates advancing in the most recent decades (since the late 1970s). Interestingly, birds were arriving earlier during the cooler early part of the nineteenth century than in the recent warm period. Temperature sensitivity was slightly stronger in the warmest 30-year period (-1.70 +/- SD 0.47 day A degrees C-1) than in the coldest period (-1.42 +/- SD 0.89 day A degrees C-1); however, the difference was not statistically significant. In the most recent decades, the temperature sensitivity of both short- and long-distance migrants significantly increased. Our results demonstrate how centennial time series can provide a much more comprehensive perspective on avian responses to climate change.