The role of ocean fluxes and radiative forcings in determining tropical rainfall shifts in RCP8.5 simulations

We use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate models forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to attribute tropical precipitation shifts under global warming scenarios and changes in cross-equatorial atmosphere heat transport (c-eq AHT) to changes in ocean and radiative fluxes. We find that the models tend to agree on the sign of c-eq AHT and change in precipitation asymmetry induced by each forcing, but not the magnitude. The ice-albedo feedback and aerosol emission reduction lead to the Northern Hemisphere warming, but this is countered by a reduction to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation northward heat transport and increased longwave leading to the multimodel mean change in precipitation asymmetry being approximately zero. None of the forcings considered, including aerosol cleanup, can account for more than 20% of the multimodel mean change in c-eq AHT alone.