Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 12, Issue 5, Pages -Publisher
IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa69d2
Keywords
attribution; internal variability; human influence
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41330423, 41420104006]
- R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (meteorology) [GYHY201506012, GYHY201406020]
- Program for Risk Information on Climate Change from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan
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In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature with that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic factors contributed to this heat event. This extreme warm midsummer was associated with a positive high-pressure anomaly that was closely related to the stochastic behavior of atmospheric circulation. Diagnosis of CMIP5 models and large ensembles of two atmospheric models indicates that human influence has substantially increased the chance of warm mid-summers such as 2013 in CEC, although the exact estimated increase depends on the selection of climate models.
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