Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry

Quantifying Risk of Wind Power Ramps in ERCOT

(2017) Jie Zhao et al.   IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS

Seasonal Climate Prediction: A New Source of Information for the Management of Wind Energy Resources

(2017) Verónica Torralba et al.   Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Transforming climate model output to forecasts of wind power production: how much resolution is enough?

(2017) Dave MacLeod et al.   METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Gridded probabilistic weather forecasts with an analog ensemble

(2017) Simone Sperati et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

(2017) Andrea Staid et al.   WIND ENERGY

Active Distribution Grid Management based on Robust AC Optimal Power Flow

(2017) Tiago Soares et al.   IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

Improving Renewable Energy Forecasting With a Grid of Numerical Weather Predictions

(2017) Jose R. Andrade et al.   IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy

The effects of land surface process perturbations in a global ensemble forecast system

(2016) Guo Deng et al.   ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Forecasting wind power – Modeling periodic and non-linear effects under conditional heteroscedasticity

(2016) Florian Ziel et al.   APPLIED ENERGY

Critical review of recent advances and further developments needed in AC optimal power flow

(2016) Florin Capitanescu   ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS RESEARCH

Generation of Scenarios from Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts with a Dual-Ensemble Copula-Coupling Approach

(2016) Zied Ben Bouallègue et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

A Hybrid NWP–Analog Ensemble

(2016) F. Anthony Eckel et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Review of the Ensemble Kalman Filter for Atmospheric Data Assimilation

(2016) P. L. Houtekamer et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

LASSO vector autoregression structures for very short-term wind power forecasting

(2016) Laura Cavalcante et al.   WIND ENERGY

State Forecasting and Operational Planning for Distribution Network Energy Management Systems

(2016) Barry Patrick Hayes et al.   IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

Use and communication of probabilistic forecasts

(2016) Adrian E. Raftery   Statistical Analysis and Data Mining

Probabilistic wind speed forecasting on a grid based on ensemble model output statistics

(2015) Michael Scheuerer et al.   Annals of Applied Statistics

Influence of extreme weather and climate change on the resilience of power systems: Impacts and possible mitigation strategies

(2015) Mathaios Panteli et al.   ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS RESEARCH

Variogram-Based Proper Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts of Multivariate Quantities*

(2015) Michael Scheuerer et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Aspects of structural health and condition monitoring of offshore wind turbines

(2015) I. Antoniadou et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

A review on the recent history of wind power ramp forecasting

(2015) Cristobal Gallego-Castillo et al.   RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS

The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather-Related Decision Making

(2015) Jared LeClerc et al.   RISK ANALYSIS

Statistical metrics for assessing the quality of wind power scenarios for stochastic unit commitment

(2015) Didem Sari et al.   WIND ENERGY

An economic impact metric for evaluating wave height forecasters for offshore wind maintenance access

(2015) V. M. Catterson et al.   WIND ENERGY

Very-Short-Term Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasts by Sparse Vector Autoregression

(2015) Jethro Dowell et al.   IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

Multivariate ensemble Model Output Statistics using empirical copulas

(2014) Daniel S. Wilks   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Review on probabilistic forecasting of wind power generation

(2014) Yao Zhang et al.   RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS

NOAA's Second-Generation Global Medium-Range Ensemble Reforecast Dataset

(2013) Thomas M. Hamill et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Quantile Forecasting of Wind Power Using Variability Indices

(2013) Georgios Anastasiades et al.   Energies

Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic jet

(2013) T. H. A. Frame et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Simulation Models Using Ensemble Copula Coupling

(2013) Roman Schefzik et al.   STATISTICAL SCIENCE

Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

(2013) Jakob W. Messner et al.   WIND ENERGY

Energy storage sizing for wind power: impact of the autocorrelation of day-ahead forecast errors

(2013) Pierre Haessig et al.   WIND ENERGY

An integrated approach for optimal coordination of wind power and hydro pumping storage

(2013) Edgardo D. Castronuovo et al.   WIND ENERGY

Handling renewable energy variability and uncertainty in power systems operation

(2013) Ricardo Bessa et al.   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Energy and Environment

Singular vectors in atmospheric sciences: A review

(2012) Emilia Paula Diaconescu et al.   EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS

Very-short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind power with generalized logit-normal distributions

(2012) P. Pinson   JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS

Ensemble Model Output Statistics for Wind Vectors

(2012) Nina Schuhen et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Impact of Surface Parameter Uncertainties within the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System

(2012) Christophe Lavaysse et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Reserve Setting and Steady-State Security Assessment Using Wind Power Uncertainty Forecast: A Case Study

(2012) Ricardo J. Bessa et al.   IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy

Computation of Dynamic Operating Balancing Reserve for Wind Power Integration for the Time-Horizon 1–48 Hours

(2012) Nickie Menemenlis et al.   IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy

Methodologies to Determine Operating Reserves Due to Increased Wind Power

(2012) Hannele Holttinen et al.   IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy

Wind power forecasting uncertainty and unit commitment

(2011) J. Wang et al.   APPLIED ENERGY

Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

(2011) P. Pinson et al.   APPLIED ENERGY

Opportunity Cost Bidding by Wind Generators in Forward Markets: Analytical Results

(2011) Chris J. Dent et al.   IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS

Wind Power Trading Under Uncertainty in LMP Markets

(2011) Audun Botterud et al.   IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS

Limited-Area Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation

(2011) Zhiyong Meng et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Kalman Filter and Analog Schemes to Postprocess Numerical Weather Predictions

(2011) Luca Delle Monache et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Conditional Prediction Intervals of Wind Power Generation

(2010) Pierre Pinson et al.   IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS

Setting the Operating Reserve Using Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasts

(2010) Manuel A. Matos et al.   IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS

Communicating forecast uncertainty: public perception of weather forecast uncertainty

(2010) Susan Joslyn et al.   METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Examining the use of weather forecasts in decision scenarios: results from a US survey with implications for uncertainty communication

(2010) Rebecca E. Morss et al.   METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

A Comparison between Raw Ensemble Output, (Modified) Bayesian Model Averaging, and Extended Logistic Regression Using ECMWF Ensemble Precipitation Reforecasts

(2010) Maurice J. Schmeits et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

‘Good’ or ‘bad’ wind power forecasts: a relative concept

(2010) R. J. Bessa et al.   WIND ENERGY

Market protocols in ERCOT and their effect on wind generation

(2009) Ramteen Sioshansi et al.   ENERGY POLICY

Extending logistic regression to provide full-probability-distribution MOS forecasts

(2009) Daniel S. Wilks   METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Probability or frequency? Expressing forecast uncertainty in public weather forecasts

(2009) Susan L. Joslyn et al.   METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Evaluating Quantile Assessments

(2009) Victor Richmond R. Jose et al.   OPERATIONS RESEARCH

Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power

(2008) P. Pinson et al.   APPLIED ENERGY

Statistical Analysis of Wind Power Forecast Error

(2008) H. Bludszuweit et al.   IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS

Comparison between Singular Vectors and Breeding Vectors as Initial Perturbations for the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

(2008) Linus Magnusson et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part I: Two-Meter Temperatures

(2008) Renate Hagedorn et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Singular Vector Structure and Evolution of a Recurving Tropical Cyclone

(2008) Hyun Mee Kim et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds

(2008) Tilmann Gneiting et al.   TEST

Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting at Horns Rev

(2008) Pierre Pinson et al.   WIND ENERGY