Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Shyam Nandan, Guy Ouillon, Didier Sornette
Summary: Connected to the problem of ultraviolet divergence in physics, conventional wisdom states that small and frequently undetected earthquakes dominate the triggering of major earthquakes, making accurate forecasting challenging. Through the use of specific ETAS models, we demonstrate that a magnitude correlation and magnitude-dependent Omori kernel significantly improve earthquake prediction compared to simpler models lacking these features. Furthermore, our findings show that large earthquakes preferentially trigger other large earthquakes. These discoveries have significant implications for short-term and medium-term seismic risk assessment and the development of a locally self-similar theory without UV cut-off.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
(2022)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Barbara Lolli, Daniele Randazzo, Gianfranco Vannucci, Emanuele Biondini, Paolo Gasperini
Summary: We developed an automatic procedure to download seismic data from the online Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre (ISC) in real-time. This data is used to create a consistent catalogue of global and EuroMediterranean seismicity for forecasting experiments and statistical analyses. We utilized ISC locations and empirical relations to convert the surface wave magnitude (M-s) and short-period body-wave magnitude (m(b)) provided by ISC to moment magnitude (M-w). These converted values were then merged with real M-w data from global and EuroMediterranean moment tensor catalogues. For more recent data not available in the ISC Bulletin, we used preferred locations provided by ISC and converted M-s and m(b) values from authoritative agencies to M-w. The magnitude conversion equations were derived using curvilinear relations and the chi-square regression method, considering uncertainties in both x and y variables.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Yoshihisa Iio, Satoshi Matsumoto, Yusuke Yamashita, Shin'ichi Sakai, Kazuhide Tomisaka, Masayo Sawada, Takashi Iidaka, Takaya Iwasaki, Megumi Kamizono, Hiroshi Katao, Aitaro Kato, Eiji Kurashimo, Yoshiko Teguri, Hiroo Tsuda, Takashi Ueno
Summary: To determine the sizes of earthquakes, we analyzed data from a temporary seismic observation network in the aftershock area of the 2016 Mw 6.2 Central Tottori earthquake in Japan. We compared the stress field estimated from focal mechanisms of aftershocks with the post-earthquake stress field and found that the differential stress before the earthquake was small near the horizontal edges. Similar results were obtained for the 2000 Mw 6.7 Western Tottori earthquake. This suggests that the fault size of large intraplate earthquakes can be determined by the region of small differential stress surrounding future earthquake faults.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Andrew J. Barbour, John O. Langbein, Noha S. Farghal
Summary: This study introduces a magnitude scale for local earthquakes based on broadband dynamic strain waveforms, which is shown to be accurate through validation with seismic records from recent earthquakes.
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Maren Bose, Allie A. Hutchison, Isabelle Manighetti, Jiawei Li, Frederick Massin, John Francis Clinton
Summary: The paper introduces two extensions to the FinDer algorithm, called FinDerS and FinDerS+, which calculate real-time earthquake slip profiles by taking into account geological properties, structural maturity of the source fault, and relation to earthquake slip distribution. These new algorithms provide alternate and better informed magnitude estimates using mean slip values derived from fault source maturity integration.
FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Markus Forster, Christof Kuhbandner
Summary: Having functional expected emotions is important for student teachers to maintain their motivation. The study found that student teachers judge their overall affect realistically when dealing with negative emotions but through rose-colored glasses when dealing with positive emotions.
FRONTIERS IN PSYCHOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Ranjit Das, Claudio Menesis, Diego Urrutia
Summary: A reliable and standardized estimation of earthquake size is crucial for tectonophysical and engineering applications. Recent investigations suggest that the moment magnitude scale (M-w) is not suitable for smaller and intermediate earthquakes, and a magnitude scale based on observed seismic moment (M-0) called M-wg is proposed. Regression methodologies have been used to develop relationships between body wave and surface wave magnitudes with M-wg, providing useful scaling relationships for seismological applications.
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Chao Chen, Atsuhisa Ota
Summary: This study investigates statistically anisotropic scalar-induced gravitational waves (SIGWs) and explores the presence of multipole moments and their relation to the anisotropy in the source. The results provide insights into testing the isotropy of primordial density perturbations at extremely small scales through SIGWs measurements.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
J. B. Zhu, J. Q. Kang, D. Elsworth, H. P. Xie, Y. Ju, J. Zhao
Summary: The study shows that cyclic fluid injection can reduce the magnitude and total energy of induced earthquakes, providing a way to potentially control the size of induced seismic events.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Geological
Jaewon Chung, Abdurraouf Okok, J. David Rogers
Summary: The New Madrid Seismic Zone in the central United States has experienced multiple strong earthquakes in the 19th century, with potential recurrence posing a significant threat to the region. Through geological analysis and seismic data, this study estimated the magnitude of past earthquakes and highlighted the potential liquefaction impact on unconsolidated sediments throughout the central U.S.
ENGINEERING GEOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Junhyung Lee, Tae-Kyung Hong
Summary: The study investigates the influence of precedent earthquakes on the induction of forthcoming earthquakes around the circum-Pacific plate boundaries. The research shows that the cumulative Coulomb stress changes induced by precedent earthquakes can have a significant impact on the occurrence of larger earthquakes in the circum-Pacific region.
GEOCHEMISTRY GEOPHYSICS GEOSYSTEMS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Michele Saroli, Matteo Albano, Simone Atzori, Marco Moro, Cristiano Tolomei, Christian Bignami, Salvatore Stramondo
Summary: The use of satellite monitoring techniques has improved the discovery of non-catastrophic slope movements triggered by earthquakes involving old paleo-landslides. Through multidisciplinary analysis, the study identified a previously unknown paleo-landslide triggered by seismic shaking, confirming the cumulative effect of seismic shaking on landslides.
REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Alexander Motorin, Sergey Baranov
Summary: This paper examines the distribution of magnitudes of the strongest aftershocks, depending on the time after the main shock, during mineral extraction in tectonically loaded rock massifs. The study is based on long-term seismological observations at the Khibiny Massif in the Kola Peninsula. The article demonstrates that the distribution of the difference between the magnitudes of the strongest aftershock and the main shock follows the dynamic Bath law, previously discovered by the authors in the study of aftershock processes in tectonic earthquakes.
FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Geological
Chi-Chin Tsai, Zi-Xian Yang, Min-Hua Chung, Shang-Yi Hsu
Summary: This study investigated the flow-like failure of Rixin levee during the 2016 Meinong earthquake in southern Taiwan, attributing the damage to cyclic softening of clayey soil instead of traditional soil liquefaction mechanisms.
ENGINEERING GEOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Management
Giovanni Bonaccolto, Massimiliano Caporin, Bertrand B. Maillet
Summary: This article introduces the CARES-X model, constructs a regularized network of US financial companies, and proposes a calibration approach for uncovering the relevant edges between the network nodes. The study demonstrates that knowledge of extreme risk network links can provide useful information and has a significant impact on portfolio risk.
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Andrew J. Michael, Sara K. McBride, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Michael Barall, Eric Martinez, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Anne M. Wein
SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2020)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Kelian Dascher-Cousineau, Emily E. Brodsky, Thorne Lay, Thomas H. W. Goebel
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
(2020)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Yuval Tal, Thomas Goebel, Jean-Philippe Avouac
EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS
(2020)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Susan E. Hough, Morgan Page, Leah Salditch, Molly M. Gallahue, Madeleine C. Lucas, James S. Neely, Seth Stein
Summary: This study revisits the three largest historical earthquakes in California and compares their estimated shaking distributions with predictions using modern ground-motion models and intensity conversion equations. The results suggest that the historical earthquake magnitudes in California may have been underestimated.
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page
Summary: This article introduces a procedure for constructing seismic hazard source models for interconnected fault systems with adjustable segmentation constraints, emphasizing the importance of generalization, simplification, and representing epistemic uncertainties. It addresses common concerns and misunderstandings associated with the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, and provides a general protocol for constructing such models.
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Men-Andrin Meier, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Elizabeth Cochran, Morgan Page
Summary: Studies have shown biases and invalid estimates in predicting earthquake rupture, with potential statistically indistinguishable growth between small and large earthquakes. A weaker trend is apparent among events of comparable duration, but its significance cannot be resolved by current data.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2021)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Egill Hauksson, Brian Olson, Alex Grant, Jennifer R. Andrews, Angela I. Chung, Susan E. Hough, Hiroo Kanamori, Sara K. McBride, Andrew J. Michael, Morgan Page, Zachary E. Ross, Deborah E. Smith, Sotiris Valkaniotis
Summary: The 2020 Lone Pine earthquake in eastern California was the largest earthquake in the region since the nineteenth century, causing complex seismotectonic effects and triggering rockfalls and liquefaction. Despite no surface rupture along the scarps from 1872, the earthquake led to notable impacts at high elevations and along the western edge of Owens Lake.
SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
H. Guo, E. E. Brodsky, T. H. W. Goebel, T. T. Cladouhos
Summary: The study measures fault diffusivity and permeability using tidal response of deep geothermal boreholes, finding fault permeability and diffusivity significantly higher than the host rock, highlighting the role of faults as fluid conduits.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Jorn Davidsen, Thomas Goebel, Grzegorz Kwiatek, Sergei Stanchits, Jordi Baro, Georg Dresen
Summary: The experimental results show that pronounced aftershock sequences are typically not observable at high stress levels. Instead, the presence of large scale imperfections such as a notch in the rock sample is necessary to observe aftershocks before the sample breaks, or consideration must be given to the period of relaxation after the sample breaks.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH
(2021)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Nadav Wetzler, Emily E. Brodsky, Esteban J. Chaves, Thomas Goebel, Thorne Lay
Summary: Measures of foreshock occurrence in eight different regions were examined using earthquake catalogs. Three different approaches were used to identify foreshocks: a fixed-time windowing method, a nearest-neighbor clustering method, and a variable-time windowing method. The method with fixed-time windows consistently yielded higher counts of foreshocks. There were differences in foreshock probabilities between regions and the method used, but overall, regions with high background seismicity had low probabilities of detectable foreshocks.
SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Thomas H. W. Goebel, Emily E. Brodsky, Georg Dresen
Summary: Earthquakes occur as complex sequences of fore, main, and aftershocks rather than isolated events. Assessing seismic hazard requires considering interactions between events. Frictional sliding experiments on faulted granite samples show that fault damage and roughness affect aftershock generation. Smooth faults result in high co-seismic slip with few aftershocks, while large roughness promotes less co-seismic slip and high aftershock activity. Lab-quake sequences exhibit statistical distributions similar to natural earthquakes. Aftershock productivity is linearly related to residual strain energy, controlled by surface heterogeneity. Roughness and damage govern slip stability and seismic energy partitioning between fore, main, and aftershocks in both lab and nature.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Morgan T. Page
Summary: The concern over multifault ruptures in the third edition of UCERF3 model has been raised, but the author argues that the rupture-length distribution matches empirical data and suggests improvements by adding more connectivity to the fault system. This improvement would enhance model fit with data, make the model less characteristic on the faults, potentially improve aftershock forecasts, and reduce sensitivity to inadequacies and unknowns in the modeled fault system.
BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Aglaja Blanke, Grzegorz Kwiatek, Thomas H. W. Goebel, Marco Bohnhoff, Georg Dresen
Summary: Observation and experiments show that variations in earthquake source parameters such as stress drop and event size can be influenced by fault roughness, providing insights into the relationship between seismic stress drop and event size. This further contributes to our understanding of seismic source parameters and their interpretations.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2021)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Thomas H. W. Goebel, Manoochehr Shirzaei
Summary: Fluid-injection-induced seismicity is rare in California hydrocarbon basins where evidence shows surface deformation in San Ardo oilfield, potential seismicity associated with injection, and correlations between seismicity and wastewater disposal wells. The seismic behavior at San Ardo is complex with clustering of earthquakes occurring at close spatial proximity but long interevent times, suggesting multiple processes contribute to potentially induced earthquakes. It is observed that fluid-injection operations occur close to seismically active faults in California, yet seismicity is predominantly observed on smaller unmapped faults with little evidence that large faults are sensitive to induced stress changes.
SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Georg Dresen, Grzegorz Kwiatek, Thomas Goebel, Yehuda Ben-Zion
PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS
(2020)