Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Grant W. Petty, Harrison K. Tran
Summary: Ship present-weather reports from 1950 to 2019 were analyzed to examine trends in precipitation occurrence over global oceans. Most ocean areas equatorward of 45° displayed significant positive trends of up to 15% per decade, while latitudes poleward of 45° showed mainly negative trends, with some areas meeting the 95% confidence threshold. Further investigation of selected regions revealed that observed trends, both positive and negative, were usually non-linear and influenced by interannual fluctuations. Four comparatively dry areas showed the largest positive trends, ranging from 8.3% to 12.8% per decade. Seasonal analysis showed overall consistency in trends across seasons.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Pedro Herrera-Lormendez, Amal John, Herve Douville, Joerg Matschullat
Summary: Projected changes in summer precipitation deficits depend on alterations in synoptic circulations. The ability of 21 global climate models to capture the frequency of recurring circulation types and their implications for European daily precipitation amounts in summer is assessed using the automated Jenkinson-Collison classification. Future changes include a decrease in the frequency of westerlies and an increase in the frequency of easterly circulation types, leading to more continental, dry, and warm air masses over central Europe. These changes are projected to enhance summer drying over central and southern Europe.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Andreas F. Prein, Linda O. Mearns
Summary: Extreme precipitation events in the Conterminous U.S. have been increasing in frequency and intensity, a trend expected to continue under future climate change. This increase is caused by thermodynamic changes, which intensify extreme precipitation, and dynamic changes, the impacts of which are more uncertain. A novel algorithm has been used to identify extreme precipitation-producing weather patterns, revealing a significant increase in XWT frequencies in most U.S. watersheds during the 20th century, indicating the importance of atmospheric dynamics in historic extreme precipitation increases.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Geological
Nima Mirhadi, Renato Macciotta
Summary: Studies have shown that the Canadian Cordillera in British Columbia experiences numerous rock falls annually, and these incidents are influenced by weather conditions, especially precipitation and freeze-thaw cycles. This research uses a statistical approach to quantify the relationship between weather data and rock fall frequencies, and predicts future changes in rock fall hazard due to climate change.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Remy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, Friederike E. L. Otto
Summary: In late June 2021, record-breaking temperatures in the US and Canada's Pacific Northwest resulted in increased deaths and health issues. Through a multi-model, multi-method analysis, it was found that human-induced climate change significantly influenced the probability and intensity of these extreme heat waves. The study emphasizes the urgent need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the significant consequences of our rapidly warming climate.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2022)
Article
Agronomy
Simon Reynaert, Arthur Vienne, Hans J. De Boeck, Tommy D'Hose, Ivan Janssens, Ivan Nijs, Miguel Portillo-Estrada, Erik Verbruggen, Sara Vicca
Summary: Global warming is changing the variability of precipitation patterns in the mid-latitudes, leading to longer dry and wet spells. This fluctuation can negatively affect the soil water and nutrient dynamics of managed ecosystems, impacting their functioning. This study found that the addition of basalt can mitigate the effects of persistent precipitation regimes on agricultural grassland, improving productivity and soil nutrient availability without compromising fodder quality.
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Zhenxia Liu, Zengjie Wang, Jian Wang, Zhengfang Zhang, Dongshuang Li, Zhaoyuan Yu, Linwang Yuan, Wen Luo
Summary: This study introduces an improved method of the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model by utilizing Bayesian networks based on a coarse-fine model. The improved method combines a dynamical model with a statistical model to achieve local optimization and exhibits higher accuracy and robustness in long-term simulations compared to the original GREB model. This approach provides a promising way to simulate climate reliably and stably.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jann-Yenq Liu, Yuh-Ing Chen, Po-Han Lee, Chi-Shen Huang, Tzu-Wei Fang
Summary: This study examines the relationship between solar activity and abnormal weather and disasters by quantifying official historical records in China over the past two thousand years. The results show that during periods of low solar activity, there is a significant increase in extreme cold weather in winter and spring, as well as irregular precipitation and floods. The northern region of China is particularly susceptible to climate disasters.
GEOSCIENCE LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Frances Davenport, Marshall Burke, Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Summary: Studies show that precipitation has a significant positive effect on state-level flood damages in the United States, with historical precipitation changes contributing approximately one-third of cumulative flood damages between 1988 to 2017. Climate models indicate that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased the probability of exceeding precipitation thresholds, which are responsible for most flood damages, and that a trajectory consistent with the UN Paris Agreement goals would significantly reduce this intensification of wet conditions.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Timothy Hyde, Dolores Albarracin
Summary: Research shows that high temperature days breaking records strengthen people's belief in climate change, even after controlling for other factors. Each record-breaking high temperature day increases perceptions of worsening heat, with a greater impact on those skeptical of climate science.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2023)
Article
Ecology
Ashley R. Hedrick, Daniel U. Greene, Erin L. Lewis, Andrew S. Hood, John B. Iverson
Summary: Climate change impacts the reproductive timing of two common North American turtle species differently, with the Common Snapping Turtle's nesting time correlated with temperatures and precipitation, while the Painted Turtle's nesting time is positively correlated with temperatures in different periods. The nesting time of both species is highly correlated with body size, with larger females nesting earlier.
ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Yan Zhang, Kaicun Wang
Summary: This study investigates the changes in the quasi-global precipitation system scale using satellite precipitation data, and finds an overall increasing trend. The scale of precipitation systems over land regions has increased, while the change in oceanic regions varies. The increase in atmospheric stability and water vapor content play important roles in the increase of precipitation system scale.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Simon Reynaert, Hans J. De Boeck, Erik Verbruggen, Maya Verlinden, Nina Flowers, Ivan Nijs
Summary: Recent findings suggest that atmospheric warming prolongs weather patterns, potentially leading to a decline in plant diversity; longer dry and wet periods result in decreased species richness, highlighting the impact of timing of droughts and wet spells on physiological stress and mortality rates in plants.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Chi Zhang, Songzi Wu, Tiantian Li, Ziwen Yu, Jiang Bian
Summary: This study uses pressure change events (PCEs) as a physical indicator of atmospheric system stability in the tropical areas of Florida to reveal the impact of temperature on precipitation. The results show that the frequency and intensity of PCE are closely related to weather events, with decreasing pressure favoring precipitation, and different types of PCEs affect the probability and depth of precipitation differently, influenced by season and climate.
Review
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Maurizio Iannuccilli, Giorgio Bartolini, Giulio Betti, Alfonso Crisci, Daniele Grifoni, Bernardo Gozzini, Alessandro Messeri, Marco Morabito, Claudio Tei, Tommaso Torrigiani Malaspina, Roberto Vallorani, Gianni Messeri
Summary: The study investigates the relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation types and extreme precipitation in Italy, revealing significant increases in extreme precipitation in winter and spring alongside specific circulation types. It emphasizes the importance of considering latitude, orographic exposure, and season in understanding this relationship.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Hyungjun Kim, Nagio Hirota
Summary: Future projections of global mean precipitation change have larger uncertainties compared to temperature change projections. This study shows that by using observational constraints, the upper bound of precipitation change under a medium greenhouse gas concentration scenario is reduced. The study also finds correlations between precipitation change and temperature trends, as well as recent precipitation trends. The observationally constrained ranges of precipitation change can provide reliable information for impact assessments.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Nobuyuki Utsumi, Hyungjun Kim
Summary: Tropical cyclone-induced heavy rainfall frequency in the coastal regions of the Western North Pacific has significantly increased and is related to anthropogenic climate change.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Yusuke Satoh, Kei Yoshimura, Yadu Pokhrel, Hyungjun Kim, Hideo Shiogama, Tokuta Yokohata, Naota Hanasaki, Yoshihide Wada, Peter Burek, Edward Byers, Hannes Mueller Schmied, Dieter Gerten, Sebastian Ostberg, Simon Newland Gosling, Julien Eric Stanslas Boulange, Taikan Oki
Summary: This study reveals significant regional disparities in the time left to prepare for unprecedented drought and the potential to buy time depending on climate scenarios. It shows that droughts beyond historical variation ranges could occur more frequently under future climate conditions. The study also identifies several subcontinental-scale regions, including Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, that are projected to face unprecedented drought conditions within the next 30 years regardless of emission scenarios. The results highlight the benefits of lower emission pathways and the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Misako Hatono, Masashi Kiguchi, Kei Yoshimura, Shinjiro Kanae, Koichiro Kuraji, Taikan Oki
Summary: We developed a high-resolution precipitation dataset of Japan based on historical observations from 1926 to 2020, which can be useful for various future studies due to its high spatiotemporal resolution and abundant observational data sources.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Rackhun Son, Po-Lun Ma, Hailong Wang, Philp J. Rasch, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Hyungjun Kim, Jee-Hoon Jeong, Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim, Jin-Ho Yoon
Summary: This study developed a hybrid prediction model called CFS-SR to forecast wildfire danger. The model integrates climate forecasting and deep learning techniques to provide longer lead times and higher spatial resolution. The results show that the model significantly improves accuracy in forecasting fire weather and increases the utility of fire weather forecasts for practical applications.
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Takumi Bannai, Haoyang Xu, Nobuyuki Utsumi, Eunho Koo, Keming Lu, Hyungjun Kim
Summary: Satellite-based precipitation estimations using deep learning have shown significant potential for improving estimation accuracy, with a two-stage framework commonly employed. This study proposes a novel precipitation retrieval framework using multi-task learning approach, which simultaneously trains the rain/no-rain binary classification task and the rain rate regression task. The proposed two-task model outperformed the conventional single-task model, possibly due to efficient knowledge transfer between tasks. Furthermore, our product showed improved rain rate retrieval and rain/no-rain retrieval skills compared to existing products.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hayato Fujita, Shinjiro Kanae
Summary: Pre-release is the discharge of water from a reservoir before a flood for flood control purposes. The success of pre-release depends on accurate rainfall forecasting. This paper quantitatively shows the rainfall forecast required for pre-release at 326 multi-purpose reservoirs in Japan. The analysis evaluates the risk of emergency spillway gate operation and the recovery of water use capacity. The results provide insights into the characteristics of situations requiring pre-release, the forecast length and spatial resolution, accuracy of rainfall amount, and position of rainfall zone.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Menaka Revel, Xudong Zhou, Dai Yamazaki, Shinjiro Kanae
Summary: This study used data assimilation methods to estimate continental-scale river discharge and investigated the capacity of different assimilation approaches. The results showed that normalized value assimilation performed best for estimating river discharge given the current limitations of hydrodynamic models.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, Sonia Seneviratne
Summary: The mechanisms leading to extreme weather and climate events are varied and complex, involving dynamic and thermodynamic processes as well as external drivers such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use change. The ExtremeX experiment investigates the contribution of these processes using three Earth system models. The results show that both atmospheric circulation patterns and soil moisture conditions play a significant role in heatwaves and warm spells.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Seoung Soo Lee, Jinho Choi, Goun Kim, Kyung-Ja Ha, Kyong-Hwan Seo, Chang Hoon Jung, Junshik Um, Youtong Zheng, Jianping Guo, Sang-Keun Song, Yun Gon Lee, Nobuyuki Utsumi
Summary: This study investigates the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the development of clouds and precipitation in two metropolitan areas in East Asia. The study finds that increased CCN concentrations in the Seoul area enhance condensation and precipitation amount in a system of less deep convective clouds, while in the Beijing area, they enhance condensation but reduce deposition with negligible changes in precipitation amount. The study also highlights the competition for convective energy among different types of precipitation in the Beijing area.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Prakat Modi, Naota Hanasaki, Dai Yamazaki, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Taikan Oki
Summary: Population and economic factors have a significant impact on global water scarcity assessment. The uncertainty of multiple factors leads to a wide range of future water-scarce population, and population distribution also has a significant influence on global water scarcity.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Water Resources
Adisorn Champathong, Naota Hanasaki, Masashi Kiguchi, Taikan Oki
Summary: This study investigated the application of a parameter optimization tool called hydroPSO in the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin of Thailand. The results showed that simulations with 12 parameters associated with land use outperformed other simulations at hydrological gauges with adequate observational data, but performed poorly at gauges with inadequate observations.
HYDROLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
History & Philosophy Of Science
Shinichiro Nakamura, Taikan Oki, Shinjiro Kanae
Summary: This article explores the transformation of waterways in Tokyo during the period of rapid economic growth, with a focus on the transition from rivers to sewers before the 1964 Tokyo Olympics. The process of policy-making reveals the interaction between long-term urban industrial pollution and the short-term pressure of urban clean-up for the Olympics. Additionally, the article highlights Japan's rush to showcase its recovery from the political and economic catastrophe of World War II on the international stage.
TECHNOLOGY AND CULTURE
(2022)