Reconstructing Earth's surface temperature over the past 2000 years: the science behind the headlines

Climate Variability and Change since 850 CE: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model

(2016) Bette L. Otto-Bliesner et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Simulation of air and ground temperatures in PMIP3/CMIP5 last millennium simulations: implications for climate reconstructions from borehole temperature profiles

(2016) A García-García et al.   Environmental Research Letters

European summer temperatures since Roman times

(2016) J Luterbacher et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context

(2016) Rob Wilson et al.   QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS

North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations

(2016) Benjamin I. Cook et al.   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

Statistical paleoclimate reconstructions via Markov random fields

(2015) Dominique Guillot et al.   Annals of Applied Statistics

Model-dependent spatial skill in pseudoproxy experiments testing climate field reconstruction methods for the Common Era

(2015) Jason E. Smerdon et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Signals and memory in tree-ring width and density data

(2015) Jan Esper et al.   DENDROCHRONOLOGIA

Fragility of reconstructed temperature patterns over the Common Era: Implications for model evaluation

(2015) Jianghao Wang et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Revising midlatitude summer temperatures back to A.D. 600 based on a wood density network

(2015) Lea Schneider et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Bridging Past and Future Climate across Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Observations, and Models: A Hydroclimate Case Study*

(2015) Jason E. Smerdon et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

North American Pancontinental Droughts in Model Simulations of the Last Millennium*

(2015) Sloan Coats et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Stochastically Generated North American Megadroughts

(2015) Samantha Stevenson et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Recent California Water Year Precipitation Deficits: A 440-Year Perspective*

(2015) Henry F. Diaz et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

(2015) Helen V. McGregor et al.   Nature Geoscience

Estimates of volcanic-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1,500 years

(2015) Markus Stoffel et al.   Nature Geoscience

Tropical sea surface temperatures for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives

(2015) Jessica E. Tierney et al.   PALEOCEANOGRAPHY

Winter-to-summer precipitation phasing in southwestern North America: A multicentury perspective from paleoclimatic model-data comparisons

(2015) Sloan Coats et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Glacier maxima in Baffin Bay during the Medieval Warm Period coeval with Norse settlement

(2015) N. E. Young et al.   Science Advances

Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

(2015) B. I. Cook et al.   Science Advances

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

(2015) E. R. Cook et al.   Science Advances

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

(2014) Juan José Gómez-Navarro et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors

(2014) M. N. Evans et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium

(2014) Raphael Neukom et al.   Nature Climate Change

Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies

(2013) F Shi et al.   CLIMATE RESEARCH

Toward a semantic web of paleoclimatology

(2013) Julien Emile-Geay et al.   GEOCHEMISTRY GEOPHYSICS GEOSYSTEMS

Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions*

(2013) Sloan Coats et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The Continuum of Hydroclimate Variability in Western North America during the Last Millennium

(2013) Toby R. Ault et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Comments on “Erroneous Model Field Representations in Multiple Pseudoproxy Studies: Corrections and Implications”

(2013) Scott D. Rutherford et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Reply to “Comments on ‘Erroneous Model Field Representations in Multiple Pseudoproxy Studies: Corrections and Implications’”*

(2013) Jason E. Smerdon et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Assimilation of Time-Averaged Pseudoproxies for Climate Reconstruction

(2013) Nathan J. Steiger et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium*

(2013) Benjamin I. Cook et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

(2013)   Nature Geoscience

Applications of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology

(2013) M.N. Evans et al.   QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS

Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies

(2013) Jörg Franke et al.   Nature Climate Change

Performance of climate field reconstruction methods over multiple seasons and climate variables

(2013) Matthew P. Dannenberg et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Volcanic cooling signal in tree ring temperature records for the past millennium

(2013) Rosanne D'Arrigo et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the “Medieval Climate Anomaly”

(2012) Hugues Goosse et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E.

(2012) Edward R. Cook et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Defining spatial comparison metrics for evaluation of paleoclimatic field reconstructions of the Common Era

(2012) Bo Li et al.   ENVIRONMETRICS

Comparative performance of paleoclimate field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise-only predictors

(2012) Eugene R. Wahl et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Tree-Ring-Reconstructed Summer Temperatures from Northwestern North America during the Last Nine Centuries*

(2012) Kevin J. Anchukaitis et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A Pseudoproxy Evaluation of Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling and Canonical Correlation Analysis for Climate Field Reconstructions over Europe*

(2012) Johannes P. Werner et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4

(2012) Laura Landrum et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

(2012) Colin P. Morice et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Tree rings and volcanic cooling

(2012) Kevin J. Anchukaitis et al.   Nature Geoscience

Underestimation of volcanic cooling in tree-ring-based reconstructions of hemispheric temperatures

(2012) Michael E. Mann et al.   Nature Geoscience

Piecing together the past: statistical insights into paleoclimatic reconstructions

(2012) Martin P. Tingley et al.   QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS

Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate

(2012) Clara Deser et al.   Nature Climate Change

A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?

(2011) Blakeley B. McShane et al.   Annals of Applied Statistics

Editorial

(2011) Michael L. Stein   Annals of Applied Statistics

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

(2011) Karl E. Taylor et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Global and hemispheric temperature reconstruction from glacier length fluctuations

(2011) Paul Willem Leclercq et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Era

(2011) J. E. Smerdon et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coralδ18O

(2011) D. M. Thompson et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The medieval climate anomaly in Europe: Comparison of the summer and annual mean signals in two reconstructions and in simulations with data assimilation

(2011) Hugues Goosse et al.   GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE

A Pseudoproxy Evaluation of the CCA and RegEM Methods for Reconstructing Climate Fields of the Last Millennium*

(2011) Jason E. Smerdon et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments

(2011) Jason E. Smerdon   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability

(2010) Clara Deser et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

An efficient forward model of the climate controls on interannual variation in tree-ring width

(2010) Susan E. Tolwinski-Ward et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra‐tropical northern hemisphere during the last two millennia

(2010) Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist   GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A-PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY

Multi-centennial summer and winter precipitation variability in southern South America

(2010) R. Neukom et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of the Asian monsoon region

(2010) K. J. Anchukaitis et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Comments on “A Surrogate Ensemble Study of Climate Reconstruction Methods: Stochasticity and Robustness”

(2010) Scott D. Rutherford et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Erroneous Model Field Representations in Multiple Pseudoproxy Studies: Corrections and Implications*

(2010) Jason E. Smerdon et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Reply

(2010) Bo Christiansen et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The Value of Multiproxy Reconstruction of Past Climate

(2010) Bo Li et al.   JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION

Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium

(2010) E. R. Cook et al.   SCIENCE

A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: a perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology

(2010) David Frank et al.   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

Trends and uncertainties in Siberian indicators of 20th century warming

(2009) JAN ESPER et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects

(2009) P.D. Jones et al.   HOLOCENE

A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part II: Comparison with the Regularized Expectation–Maximization Algorithm

(2009) Martin P. Tingley et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part I: Development and Applications to Paleoclimate Reconstruction Problems

(2009) Martin P. Tingley et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

High-Frequency Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in New Zealand Differ from the Northern Signature

(2009) J. M. Schaefer et al.   SCIENCE

Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly

(2009) M. E. Mann et al.   SCIENCE

Comparison of climate field reconstruction techniques: application to Europe

(2008) Nadja Riedwyl et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Testing for tree-ring divergence in the European Alps

(2008) ULF BÜNTGEN et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Assessment of three temperature reconstruction methods in the virtual reality of a climate simulation

(2008) Hans von Storch et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES

On the Origin of the Standardization Sensitivity in RegEM Climate Field Reconstructions*

(2008) Jason E. Smerdon et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A Surrogate Ensemble Study of Climate Reconstruction Methods: Stochasticity and Robustness

(2008) Bo Christiansen et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Reply to comment by Jason E. Smerdon et al. on “Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods”

(2008) Scott Rutherford et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Comment on “Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods” by Michael E. Mann et al.

(2008) Jason E. Smerdon et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

North American climate of the last millennium: Underground temperatures and model comparison

(2008) M. Bruce Stevens et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia

(2008) M. E. Mann et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

On the ‘Divergence Problem’ in Northern Forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes

(2007) Rosanne D'Arrigo et al.   GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE