Journal
IFOREST-BIOGEOSCIENCES AND FORESTRY
Volume 9, Issue -, Pages 195-204Publisher
SISEF-SOC ITALIANA SELVICOLTURA ECOL FORESTALE
DOI: 10.3832/ifor1513-008
Keywords
Fire Occurrence Zones; Kernel Density Interpolation; Local Scale; Regional Scale; National Scale; European Scale; Greece
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Funding
- EC project Forest Fire Spread and Mitigation (SPREAD), EC [EVG1-CT-2001-00027]
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This study proposes and evaluates a relatively new concept for fire occurrence zoning based on documented historical fire records. The proposed method creates continuous kernel density surfaces based on wildland fire ignition observations. Kernels have the advantage of directly producing density estimates that are not influenced by grid size or localization effects. Within this scheme, kernel density surfaces have been created and reclassified to construct fire occurrence zones at local to global scales in the Mediterranean Basin. Specifically, fire occurrence zones were created for the European scale (European Mediterranean Basin), national scale (Greece), regional scale (Peloponnese, Greece) and local scale (Chalkidiki, Greece). To evaluate fire occurrence zones, we compared the observed with the expected distribution of the number of fires within these zones using a Monte Carlo randomization test, finding that these numbers were statistically different in all cases. The deviations observed from the expected distributions towards the high occurrence zone indicated their successful assessment and value. In this paper, we further discuss their potential role and use for multi-scale fire management and policy in a European context.
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