Probabilistic stability assessment using adaptive limit analysis and random fields

For deterministic scenarios, adaptive finite element limit analysis has been successfully employed to achieve tight bounds on the ultimate load of a geotechnical structure in a much more efficient manner than a dense uniform mesh. However, no probabilistic studies have so far considered finite element limit analysis with adaptive remeshing. Therefore, this research explores the benefits of combining adaptive mesh refinement with finite element limit analysis for probabilistic applications. The outcomes indicate that in order to achieve tight bounds on probabilistic results (such as the probability of failure), the ultimate load in each individual simulation (e.g. factor of safety or bearing capacity) has to be estimated with a very high level of accuracy and this can be achieved more economically using adaptive mesh refinement. The benefits, assessed here for undrained conditions, are expected to be much more pronounced in the case of frictional soils and complex geometries.