Sustained Flow Index: Stochastic Measure of Freeway Performance

Research into the operation of traffic flow at high volumes reveals that the capacity of freeways is not a fixed number but is rather a random variable. Since traditional operational performance measures for the analysis of traffic flow on freeways typically disregard the randomness of capacity, new approaches to make use of the concept of randomness for freeway operation analysis are required. To address that need, this paper introduces a new indicator of freeway performance based solely on a stochastic approach to capacity computation. With this new indicator, the maximum reliable volume that can be carried by a freeway over prolonged time periods was derived from parameters of capacity distribution functions. The breakdown probability corresponding to the optimum volume can be used to select a single value from the capacity distribution function. To explore the empirical relationship between expected values of capacity and the optimum volumes calculated from this new computational process, flow data from several German freeway sections were analyzed. To illustrate the application potential for a sustained flow index, this paper also discusses the bases for increasing the effectiveness of ramp metering and vehicle routing management techniques.