4.2 Article

Measuring uncertainty in discrete choice travel demand forecasting models

Journal

TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AND TECHNOLOGY
Volume 39, Issue 2, Pages 218-237

Publisher

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2015.1127542

Keywords

Lisbon-Oporto high-speed rail line; high-speed railway; Uncertainty; travel behavior; transport demand modeling

Funding

  1. Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) under the MIT-Portugal research program [MIT/SET/0023/2009]
  2. Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia [MIT/SET/0023/2009] Funding Source: FCT

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In transportation projects, uncertainty related to the difference between forecast and actual demand is of major interest for the decision-maker, as it can have a substantial influence on the viability of a project. This paper identifies and quantifies discrete choice model uncertainty, which is present in the model parameters and attributes, and determines its impact on risk taking for decision-making applied to a case study of the High-Speed Rail project in Portugal. The methodology includes bootstrapping for the parameter variation, a postulated triangular distribution for the mode-specific input and a probabilistic graphical model for the socio-economic input variation. In comparison to point estimates, the findings for mode shift results in a wider swing in the system, which constitutes valuable information for decision-makers. The methodology, findings and conclusions presented in this study can be generalized to projects involving similar models.

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