Child survival and contraception choice: Theory and evidence

This paper asks whether increases in child survival bring down fertility and incentivize couples to switch from traditional to modern methods of contraception. Our parsimonious model predicts the answer in each case is, yes. We test these connections using household-level Demographic and Health Surveys from recent fertility transitions using arguably exogenous variation in child survival at the regional level. We find a 1% increase in ambient child survival leads to a fertility drop of 1.2%. The same raises the chance of switching to modern birth control (and sticking to it) by 0.4%. Our finding supports the notion that prevailing rates of child survival influence the effectiveness of family planning programs that promote modern contraceptive use.

Automated summary

This paper examines the relationship between child survival rates, fertility, and the use of modern contraception. Using household-level surveys, the study finds that a 1% increase in child survival leads to a 1.2% decrease in fertility and a 0.4% increase in the likelihood of switching to and using modern contraceptive methods. These findings suggest that family planning programs promoting modern contraception are influenced by prevailing rates of child survival.