The Urban Origins of Rebellion

The emphasis in recent decades on weak state capacity as an explanation of civil war detracts from an important fact: some of the deadliest and most protracted rebellions since WWII arose not where the state was weak, but rather in areas of significant state power. This study challenges the predominance-of-peripheral-conflict paradigm by disentangling rebel formation from civil war onset and emphasizing the urban origins of numerous rebel groups. Quantitative analyses show that three group types-military-, social interest-, and political party-based groups-are far more likely to form in large cities, especially the capital, and far less likely to form in the rural countryside. Case studies then illustrate the constraints and opportunities nascent rebel groups of each type face. This study advances the field's understanding of a surprisingly large number of violent rebellions that current mainstream approaches and the emphasis on weak states and conflict opportunities cannot effectively explain.

Automated summary

The emphasis on weak state capacity as an explanation for civil war overlooks the fact that some of the deadliest and longest-lasting rebellions have actually occurred in areas with significant state power. This study challenges the prevailing notion of peripheral conflict by showing that rebel groups are more likely to form in large cities, especially the capital, rather than in rural areas. The findings of this study enhance our understanding of numerous violent rebellions that cannot be adequately explained by current mainstream approaches.