High cost of slow energy transitions for emerging countries: On the case of Egypt's pathway options

The Paris Agreement targets to halt the progression of climate change necessitate global cooperation and renewable energy uptake in developed and developing countries at similar rates. This study explores the energy transition pathway options for Egypt across the power, heat, transport, and desalination sectors as a representative case study for other emerging sunbelt economies. The LUT Energy System Transition Model has been used to investigate the feasibility of six scenarios, including four variations of best policy, delayed policy, and current policy scenarios. The least-cost solution, achieving 100% renewable energy and zero CO2 emissions by 2050, is dominated by solar photovoltaics at 90% of the total primary energy demand. Key transition enablers are the excellent and low-cost solar resources, energy storage, and Power-to-X technologies allowing high electrification and full sector coupling. The results reveal that the current and delayed policy scenarios are the most expensive pathways, highlighting the value of leapfrogging into a fully renewable system. Such a transition would require policy reforms that balance investment risks in emerging economies and enable its financial mobilisation. The structural results of this study provide a reliable guide for energy transition planning in Egypt as well as other emerging sunbelt economies.

Automated summary

The Paris Agreement requires global cooperation and adoption of renewable energy in developed and developing countries to halt climate change. This study examines the energy transition options for Egypt as a representative case for other emerging sunbelt economies. The results show that achieving 100% renewable energy and zero CO2 emissions by 2050 is the most cost-effective solution, with solar photovoltaics dominating the energy supply.