A seismic risk assessment method for cultural artifacts based on the Law of Large Numbers

Earthquakes can cause significant damage to cultural artifacts, which often hold significant historical or cultural value. Seismic risk assessments can contribute to a more targeted approach by museum staff to the preventive conservation of cultural artifacts. The primary objective of this research is to suggest a new approach for assessing the seismic risk of cultural artifacts. This innovative method is founded on the Law of Large Numbers and aims to provide a more user-friendly way of evaluating the likelihood of potential seismic threat to cultural artifacts. The proposed method takes into account the statistical distribution of seismic ground motion and the seismic response characteristics of artifacts, and its accuracy and practicality are demonstrated by case studies. Compared with existing methods, the proposed method has the advantages of theoretical simplicity, low computational effort, and easier to be understood and mastered by museum staff. Furthermore, the impact of sample size on the assessment results was investigated. The findings demonstrate that the proposed method represents a valuable tool for cultural heritage risk decision-makers to evaluate the seismic risk of artifacts. By using this method, they can more effectively assess the potential damage caused by seismic effects and design suitable mitigation measures accordingly. (c) 2023 Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR). Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

Earthquakes can cause significant damage to cultural artifacts, so it is necessary to assess the seismic risk and propose protective measures. This research suggests a new method based on the Law of Large Numbers, which can accurately evaluate the seismic risk of cultural artifacts and is user-friendly with low computational effort.