Review
Health Care Sciences & Services
Tasnim Hamza, Toshi A. Furukawa, Nicola Orsini, Andrea Cipriani, Cynthia P. Iglesias, Georgia Salanti
Summary: In this paper, the authors propose a suite of network meta-analysis models that incorporate the dose-effect relationship using restricted cubic splines. They apply these models to a network of aggregate data about the efficacy of antidepressants and placebo for depression. The results show that all antidepressants are more efficacious than placebo after a certain dose, and the authors also identify the dose level at which each antidepressant's effect exceeds that of placebo and estimate the dose beyond which the effect of antidepressants no longer increases. The authors also find that studies with small sample size tend to exaggerate antidepressant efficacy for several drugs.
STATISTICAL METHODS IN MEDICAL RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Mechanical
Marcus Omori Yano, Luis G. G. Villani, Samuel da Silva, Eloi Figueiredo
Summary: This paper introduces a new strategy to predict the progression of damage indices using Autoregressive models with piecewise cubic splines, allowing extrapolation to future structural conditions based on assumptions. The study results show promising outcomes in reproducing future behavior of structures if damages are detected early and not immediately repaired.
JOURNAL OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIETY OF MECHANICAL SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ruiying Qiu, Ke Bu, Hengqing An, Ning Tao
Summary: This study retrospectively analyzed clinical data and conducted survival analysis to investigate the association between lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and the risk of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). The results showed a linear correlation between LDH levels and the risk of CRPC, suggesting that LDH can serve as a prognostic biomarker for prostate cancer patients.
Article
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Peter C. Austin, Jiming Fang, Douglas S. Lee
Summary: The Cox proportional hazards model, commonly used in clinical and epidemiological research, assumes proportional hazards for variables. When this assumption is violated, there are two methods to allow regression coefficients to vary as a flexible function of time. This flexibility improves the modeling of data and enhances the accuracy of the model.
STATISTICS IN MEDICINE
(2022)
Article
Management
Xiaoping Liu, Xiao-Bai Li, Sumit Sarkar
Summary: When acquiring consumer data for marketing or new business initiatives, it is crucial to determine which attributes or features of potential customers should be obtained. This study focuses on a novel feature selection problem in the context of customer data acquisition, where different features come with different acquisition costs. The problem of feature selection is examined for linear regression and logistic regression. By formulating the problem as nonlinear discrete optimization problems, we aim to minimize prediction errors under a budget constraint. Analytical properties of the solutions are derived, and a computational procedure is developed to solve the problems. Additionally, the intuitive interpretation of the feature selection criteria is provided, and the managerial implications of the solution approach are discussed. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Management
Xiaoping Liu, Xiao-Bai Li, Sumit Sarkar
Summary: This study focuses on the problem of feature selection in customer data acquisition, considering different acquisition costs. The researchers formulate the problem as nonlinear discrete optimization problems to minimize prediction errors within a budget constraint. They derive analytical properties of the solutions, propose a computational procedure, provide an intuitive interpretation of the feature selection criteria, and discuss the managerial implications. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of their approach.
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Martin Connock, Peter Auguste, Jean-Francois Obadia, Lazaros Andronis, Xavier Armoiry
Summary: When updated clinical trial data becomes available, reassessing the cost-effectiveness of technologies may modify estimates and influence decision-making. In this study, the impact of updated trial outcomes on the cost-effectiveness of percutaneous mitral repair (PR) for secondary mitral regurgitation was investigated. The updated trial data showed an increase in mortality in the intervention arm between two and three years follow-up, leading to a higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared to previous estimates.
Article
Pharmacology & Pharmacy
Yixian Xu, Didi Han, Fengshuo Xu, Si Shen, Xinkai Zheng, Hao Wang, Jun Lyu
Summary: This study found that the duration of antibiotic treatment has a nonlinear effect on the prognosis of patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). Both shorter and longer durations of antibiotic use increase the risk, while an appropriate duration ensures a good prognosis for patients with VAP.
FRONTIERS IN PHARMACOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Theo Economou, Georgia Lazoglou, Anna Tzyrkalli, Katiana Constantinidou, Jos Lelieveld
Summary: Meteorological station measurements are important for understanding weather and climate change, but they often lack spatial coverage and have flaws. We propose a probabilistic framework that integrates station measurements with climate model data, allowing for biases and errors, and enabling prediction at any spatial resolution.
Article
Economics
Louis Everest, Scott Blommaert, Ryan W. Chu, Kelvin K. W. Chan, Ambica Parmar
Summary: This study demonstrates a significant difference in projected survival between initial and updated publications. Health technology assessment committees should take into account the potential uncertainty in incremental effectiveness and value-for-money assessment when making reimbursement decisions based on initial publications with immature survival data.
Article
Economics
Benjamin Kearns, Matt D. Stevenson, Kostas Triantafyllopoulos, Andrea Manca
Summary: Failure to model the cured fraction for curative treatments can lead to poor extrapolations, while cure models provide improved extrapolations. The performance of flexible cure models is similar to correctly specified cure models.
Editorial Material
Hematology
Hedwig M. Blommestein, Sonja Zweegman
Summary: In this study, the first-line treatment with daratumumab in combination with different drugs was found to increase quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and reduce treatment costs compared to delaying daratumumab treatment and using it as a second-line therapy with carfilzomib and dexamethasone.
Article
Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems
Marcus S. Shaker, Elissa M. Abrams, John Oppenheimer, Alexander G. Singer, Matthew Shaker, Daniel Fleck, Matthew Greenhawt, Evan Grove
Summary: This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a portable SMART approach in high-risk SCA patients and found that it can prevent fatalities and is highly cost-effective. The availability of a smart-phone enabled pocket-sized AED with CPR prompts has the potential to greatly improve population health and economic outcomes.
FRONTIERS IN CARDIOVASCULAR MEDICINE
(2022)
Article
Health Care Sciences & Services
Benjamin Kearns, Matt D. Stevenson, Kostas Triantafyllopoulos, Andrea Manca
Summary: This study compared the performance of different survival models in fitting and extrapolating future survival estimates. While the emerging practice models showed better fit within sample data, their extrapolation performance was not as good. Generalized additive models (GAMs) and Dynamic survival models (DSMs) performed better for extrapolations in data-rich scenarios, but struggled in short-term follow-ups. Further research is needed to determine when these flexible models are most useful and how external evidence can improve extrapolation accuracy.
BMC MEDICAL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Pharmacology & Pharmacy
Yan Li, Xueyan Liang, Huijuan Li, Tong Yang, Sitong Guo, Xiaoyu Chen
Summary: This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of nivolumab and sorafenib in the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC). It found that nivolumab improved overall survival and quality-adjusted life-years compared to sorafenib, but at a higher cost.
FRONTIERS IN PHARMACOLOGY
(2022)
Review
Substance Abuse
Kyla H. Thomas, Michael N. Dalili, Jose A. Lopez-Lopez, Edna Keeney, David M. Phillippo, Marcus R. Munafo, Matt Stevenson, Deborah M. Caldwell, Nicky J. Welton
Summary: This study compared the effectiveness and safety of varenicline, bupropion, nicotine replacement therapy, and electronic cigarettes in smokers. Most monotherapies and combination therapies were more effective than placebo, with varenicline appearing to be the most effective based on current evidence. Limited data suggests no strong associations between tobacco cessation pharmacotherapies and adverse events, but there is a need for improved reporting of safety data.
Article
Health Care Sciences & Services
Mathyn Vervaart, Mark Strong, Karl P. Claxton, Nicky J. Welton, Torbjorn Wisloff, Eline Aas
Summary: This article introduces a method for computing the expected value of sample information (EVSI) for extending an existing trial's follow-up, comparing two different methods and demonstrating their effectiveness. The regression-based method is fast and easy to implement, while the nested Monte Carlo procedure requires significantly more computational demand when considering model uncertainty.
MEDICAL DECISION MAKING
(2022)
Review
Ophthalmology
Ian McCormick, Charlotte James, Nicky J. Welton, Philippe Mayaud, Katherine M. E. Turner, Sami L. Gottlieb, Allen Foster, Katharine J. Looker
Summary: According to research data, an estimated 1.7 million people had HSV keratitis in 2016, with the majority being epithelial keratitis. The global burden of HSV ocular disease may have been underestimated, with limited data on other HSV eye conditions, especially outside the USA and Europe.
OPHTHALMIC EPIDEMIOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Christopher H. Jackson, Gianluca Baio, Anna Heath, Mark Strong, Nicky J. Welton, Edward C. F. Wilson
Summary: This article provides a comprehensive overview of Value of Information (VoI) methods, explaining their principles, application areas, and implementation, while also discussing the challenges in this field.
ANNUAL REVIEW OF STATISTICS AND ITS APPLICATION
(2022)
Article
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Caitlin H. Daly, Ross Maconachie, A. E. Ades, Nicky J. Welton
Summary: This paper presents a non-parametric approach to jointly synthesise evidence from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The method overcomes the proportional hazards assumption and captures the diverse survival curve shapes across studies and treatments.
RESEARCH SYNTHESIS METHODS
(2022)
Article
Immunology
Anthony E. Ades, Fabiana Gordon, Karen Scott, Intira J. Collins, Thorne Claire, Lucy Pembrey, Elizabeth Chappell, Eugenia Marine-Barjoan, Karina Butler, Giuseppe Indolfi, Diana M. Gibb, Ali Judd
Summary: This study provides new estimates of the risk of vertical transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV). The overall vertical transmission rates are higher than previously assumed, but the risk of infection persisting beyond age 5 years is lower.
CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2023)
Article
Immunology
A. E. Ades, Fabiana Gordon, Karen Scott, Intira Jeannie Collins, Claire Thorne, Lucy Pembrey, Elizabeth Chappell, Eugenia Marine-Barjoan, Karina Butler, Giuseppe Indolfi, Diana M. Gibb, Ali Judd
Summary: Based on the largest purely prospective dataset assembled to date, this study found that 66% of confirmed vertically acquired hepatitis C virus infections clear spontaneously by age 5 years, rather than the 25%-40% assumed in current guidelines. Treatment before age 3 would avoid loss to follow-up but result in substantial overtreatment.
CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2023)
Article
Health Care Sciences & Services
David M. Phillippo, Sofia Dias, A. E. Ades, Mark Belger, Alan Brnabic, Daniel Saure, Yves Schymura, Nicky J. Welton
Summary: This study demonstrates the application of ML-NMR method to estimate treatment effects in different populations. The results show that ML-NMR has better fit and reduces uncertainty compared to previous methods, and the assumptions made are valid.
MEDICAL DECISION MAKING
(2023)
Article
Respiratory System
Matthew Evison, Ross Maconachie, Toby Mercer, Caitlin H. Daly, Nicky J. Welton, Shahzeena Aslam, Doug West, Neal Navani
Summary: Chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery (CRS) provides an extended disease-free survival and improved cost-effectiveness compared to chemotherapy plus surgery (CS) and chemotherapy plus radiotherapy (CR) in potentially resectable stage III-N2 NSCLC patients.
Article
Health Care Sciences & Services
David Glynn, Georgios Nikolaidis, Dina Jankovic, Nicky J. J. Welton
Summary: This article introduces a method to construct priors for randomized clinical trials (RCTs) based on previous RCTs, which can be used to aid research prioritization and trial design. The study shows that using empirically derived priors can reduce the expected value of research in value of information (VOI) analysis compared to using uninformative priors.
MEDICAL DECISION MAKING
(2023)
Article
Health Care Sciences & Services
Mathyn Vervaart, Eline Aas, Karl P. Claxton, Mark Strong, Nicky J. Welton, Torbjorn Wisloff, Anna Heath
Summary: We developed general purpose methods for simulating survival data from a probabilistic sample of survival probabilities, greatly reducing the computational burden of the EVSI data-simulation step when assuming treatment effect waning or using flexible survival models.
MEDICAL DECISION MAKING
(2023)
Review
Sport Sciences
Brad S. Currier, Jonathan C. Mcleod, Laura Banfield, Joseph Beyene, Nicky J. Welton, Alysha C. D'Souza, Joshua A. J. Keogh, Lydia Lin, Giulia Coletta, Antony Yang, Lauren Colenso-Semple, Kyle J. Lau, Alexandria Verboom, Stuart M. Phillips
Summary: This study aimed to determine the effects of distinct combinations of resistance training prescription variables (load, sets, and frequency) on muscle strength and hypertrophy. A systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis were conducted, and it was found that higher-load, multiset, thrice-weekly training was the most effective for strength gains, while higher-load, multiset, twice-weekly training was the best for hypertrophy.
BRITISH JOURNAL OF SPORTS MEDICINE
(2023)
Article
Medicine, General & Internal
Louise S. Guski, Gesche Juergens, Hugo Pedder, Niels K. G. Levinsen, Stig E. Andersen, Nicky J. Welton, Niels Graudal
Summary: This is the first network meta-analysis to assess outcomes associated with multiple conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and glucocorticoid in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. The study's results support the present role of methotrexate as the primary reference conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug.
Review
Medicine, General & Internal
Anair Beverly, Giok Ong, Catherine Kimber, Josie Sandercock, Carolyn Doree, Nicky J. Welton, Peter Wicks, Lise J. Estcourt
Summary: The study aimed to assess the effectiveness and safety of antifibrinolytic and hemostatic drugs in reducing bleeding and the need for blood transfusion in people undergoing major vascular surgery. However, due to limited data, a network meta-analysis could not be performed. Further research in this field is needed.
COCHRANE DATABASE OF SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS
(2023)