Journal
JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
Volume 25, Issue 3, Pages 326-350Publisher
SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
DOI: 10.1007/s11518-016-5303-7
Keywords
Agent-based modeling; calibration; energy system
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This study looks at the historical reliability of the agent-based model of the global energy system. We present a mathematical framework for the agent-based model calibration and sensitivity analysis based on historical observations. Simulation consistency with the historical record is measured as a distance between two vectors of data points and inference on parameter values is done from the probability distribution of this stochastic estimate. Proposed methodology is applied to the model of the global energy system. Some model properties and limitations followed from calibration results are discussed.
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