Multifaceted responses of vegetation to average and extreme climate change over global drylands

Average climatic events describe the occurrence of weather or climate at an average value, whereas extreme events are defined as events that exceed the upper or lower threshold value of statistical or observational average climatic events. This study investigated the impacts of both average climate change (ACC) (i.e., average precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) and extreme climate change (ECC) (i.e., five precipitation and five tempera-ture extremes) on dryland vegetation based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatial diver-gences of ACC and ECC in affecting changes in NDVI over drylands were determined using the geographical detector model. In this study, the growth of vegetation in 40.29 % of global drylands was driven by average precipitation and this dominant effect also occurred in all the plant species, particularly shrubs. However, the sensitivity of grassland to average precipitation exceeded that of most of the woody vegetation. The average temperature and PET controlled 28.64 % and 31.07 % of the changes in NDVI, respectively. Precipitation extremes (except for consecutive dry days and consecutive wet days) and warm temperature extremes (WTE) had positive influences on dryland vegetation, and the effect of WTE on NDVI exceeded that of the remaining temperature extremes. Temperature extremes exerted more significant effects than precipitation extremes for changes in the grassland NDVI. In contrast, the variations in shrub NDVI were primarily dominated by precipitation extremes. We also found that the impacts of parts of average and extreme climatic factors on vegetation had changed over time. Furthermore, temperature extremes had far exceeded the average temperature in affecting vegetation growth at the spatial scale, and this action gradually inten-sified from 1982 to 2015. The influences of all precipitation extremes were weaker than those of the average precip-itation. Those can offer scientific references for ecosystem protection in drylands.

Automated summary

This study investigated the impacts of both average climate change and extreme climate change on dryland vegetation. The results showed that average precipitation was the main driver of vegetation growth in global drylands, while warm temperature extremes had a greater influence on grassland vegetation than precipitation extremes. Additionally, the impacts of temperature extremes on vegetation growth intensified over time.