The silver learning curve for photovoltaics and projected silver demand for net-zero emissions by 2050

The clean energy transition could see the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics increase from 1 TW before the end of 2022 to 15-60 TW by 2050, creating a significant silver demand risk. Here, we present a silver learning curve for the photovoltaic industry with a learning rate of 20.3 +/- 0.8%. Maintaining business as usual with a dominance of p-type technology could require over 20% of the current annual silver supply by 2027 and a cumulative 450-520 kt of silver until 2050, approximately 85-98% of the current global silver reserves. A rapid transition to higher efficiency tunnel oxide passivated contact and silicon heterojunction cell technologies in their present silver-intensive forms could increase and accelerate silver demand. As we approach annual production capacities of over 1 TW by 2030, addressing the silver issue requires increased efforts in research and development to increase the silver learning rate by 30%, with existing silver-lean and silver-free metallisation approaches including copper plating and screen-printing of aluminium and copper.

Automated summary

The clean energy transition will significantly increase the installed capacity of photovoltaics, leading to a higher demand for silver. Business as usual with p-type technology could require over 20% of the current annual silver supply by 2027, and a cumulative demand of 450-520 kt of silver by 2050, which is approximately 85-98% of the current global silver reserves. The rapid adoption of silver-intensive technologies like tunnel oxide passivated contact and silicon heterojunction cells could further accelerate silver demand.