Patterns of niche filling and expansion across the invaded ranges of Halyomorpha halys in North America and Europe

Studies of realized niche shift and model transferability in alien species usually ignore the potential effects of source populations and different invaded-range environments on niche lability. We incorporate our detailed knowledge of the native-range source populations and global introduction history of brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys) to examine intraspecific variation in realized niche expansion and unfilling, and to investigate how niche modelling approaches are affected by that variation. Realized niche dynamics of H. halys were analyzed using an ordination method, ecological niche models (ENMs), and occurrence records from (1) East Asia, (2) North America, (3) Europe, (4) native-range source populations for North America and Europe introductions, and (5) global range. Patterns of niche filling and expansion were observed across the invaded ranges of H. halys in North America and Europe: niche unfilling (42.7 %) and expansion (0.0 %) in North America, and unfilling (80.5 %) and expansion (28.0 %) in Europe. Some invasive populations have expanded into climatically novel areas in central Europe. Results presented here provide evidence that H. halys has not yet occupied all suitable climatic habitats in North America and Europe that resemble its native range, and the central USA and most parts of Europe appear to be most at risk of H. halys spread in near future. When realized niche shifts dominated by niche unfilling, fully capturing species' requirement by basing ENMs on native range may be more important for accurate invasion forecasts than non-native models. Caution is warranted when using the source population to estimate invasion potential.