Policy implications of multiple concurrent soil erosion processes in European farmland

Soil erosion is a serious threat to soil functions leading to land productivity decline and multiple off-site effects. Here we show, using a multi-model approach, the spatial risk of soil erosion by water, wind, tillage and harvesting and where the co-occurrence of these different processes is observed. Moreover, we analysed where these locations of multiple erosion co-occurrence are likely to intersect with the projected increase of dry/wet climate conditions. Of the similar to 110 million hectares (M ha) of arable land in the European Union, our estimates show that 43 M ha are vulnerable to a single driver of erosion, 15.6 M ha to two drivers and 0.81 M ha to three or more drivers. About 3.2 M ha of arable land are vulnerable to the possible interaction of increased flood, drought, water and wind erosion. We contend that this set of predictions serves as a basis for developing an efficient stratified monitoring network and informing targeted mitigation strategies under the Common Agricultural Policy 2023-2027. The road to the sustainable, carbon-neutral and biodiversity-friendly system of agriculture advocated for in the EU Green Deal goes through a thematic strategy for soil protection from multiple concurrent erosion processes.

Automated summary

This study uses a multi-model approach to assess the spatial risk of soil erosion by various processes and their co-occurrence, as well as the potential intersections with future climate conditions. The findings indicate that a significant area of arable land in the European Union is vulnerable to erosion, with different degrees of risk depending on the number of driving factors. The results highlight the importance of developing monitoring networks and targeted mitigation strategies to protect soils under the Common Agricultural Policy. This research contributes to the goal of achieving sustainable and biodiversity-friendly agriculture advocated in the EU Green Deal.