Journal
JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Volume 214, Issue -, Pages S421-S426Publisher
OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiw356
Keywords
transmission chain; cluster; Internet data stream; big data; transmission patterns; exposure setting; contact network; reproduction number; Ebola; MERS
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Funding
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (NIH)
- RAPIDD Program, Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security
- National Science Foundation (NDF) [1414374]
- United Kingdom Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council [BB/M008894/1]
- BBSRC [BB/M008894/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council [BB/M008894/1] Funding Source: researchfish
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The paucity of traditional epidemiological data during epidemic emergencies calls for alternative data streams to characterize the key features of an outbreak, including the nature of risky exposures, the reproduction number, and transmission heterogeneities. We illustrate the potential of Internet data streams to improve preparedness and response in outbreak situations by drawing from recent work on the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in South Korea. We show that Internet reports providing detailed accounts of epidemiological clusters are particularly useful to characterize time trends in the reproduction number. Moreover, exposure patterns based on Internet reports align with those derived from epidemiological surveillance data on MERS and Ebola, underscoring the importance of disease amplification in hospitals and during funeral rituals (associated with Ebola), prior to the implementation of control interventions. Finally, we discuss future developments needed to generalize Internet-based approaches to study transmission dynamics.
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