Forecasting of non-renewable and renewable energy production in India using optimized discrete grey model

Renewable energy delivers reliable power supplies and fuel diversification, enhancing energy security and lowering fuel spill risk. Renewable energy also helps conserve the nation's natural resources. Solar and other renewable energy sources have become increasingly prominent in recent years. India has achieved the 20 GW capacity solar energy production target before 2022. It is presently producing the lowest-cost solar power at the global level. Thermal energy has dominated the energy market. Countries have decided on energy generation from renewable sources and adopting green energy. This study forecasted non-renewable and renewable energy from multiple sources (hydropower, solar, wind and bioenergy) using grey forecasting model DGM (1,1,alpha). The comparative analyses with the classical models DGM (1,1) and EGM (1,1) revealed the superiority of the DGM (1,1,alpha). We also used CAGR for 2009-2019 to compare the actual and predicted data growth rate. The results show that non-renewable and renewable energy production is expected to increase. However, renewable energy generation wind sources continue to increase faster than hydropower, solar and bioenergy.

Automated summary

Renewable energy plays an important role in providing reliable power supplies and diversifying fuel sources, while also helping to conserve natural resources. Solar energy has become increasingly prominent in India. This study forecasts the development of renewable energy and finds that wind power is growing faster than hydropower, solar energy, and bioenergy.